UEFA Euro 2024: Second Round - Betting Picks

June 28, 2024

RotoBaller's Euro 2024 coverage continues with Jamie Steed's betting picks for the Second Round stage of the tournament. Jamie picks out his favorite plays from the eight games.

Happy Euro 2024, RotoBallers! The group stage came and went with a bang. We've witnessed a few upsets and some lesser fancied nations have put up a good showing. Meanwhile, some of the pre-tournament favorites have yet to get going. There's now no margin for error with the knockout stages getting underway.

After a three-year break, Euro 2024 coverage is back on RotoBaller. Our dedicated team is bringing you comprehensive coverage throughout the tournament. As well as our favorite bets, we are covering the fantasy game and the day-to-day action of DFS.

Today, we're bringing you the best plays for the Second Round. Don't miss out on our extensive Euro 2024 coverage. You can access all of our Euro 2024 coverage here on RotoBaller.

Introduction

Just a bit of housekeeping before we begin.

I'll be using a unit-based system. You can play whatever you want. Each bet will have up to 10 units placed on it. Ten units show the highest confidence level I have on a bet and one is my least confident.

We're using multiple sportsbooks to bring you the best odds for each bet. If you are new to any of these sportsbooks, be sure to take advantage of their promo offers. Otherwise, just use the sportsbook(s) you already use. Most of them will offer the same bet types as we have listed below.

Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose. Good luck with your Euro 2024 bets. Just remember to bet responsibly!

Saturday, June 29, 2024

Switzerland (+250) vs. Italy (+150) - noon EDT

The Swiss impressed in the group stage, reaching the Second Round without losing a game. They did draw twice but scored five goals in their three games, which included a 1-1 draw with hosts Germany. Italy had to come from behind to beat Albania in its opener and needed a last-minute equalizer against Croatia to secure its spot in the Round of 16.

Italy hasn't got going and looks like a team in transition. The Swiss have been their usual efficient selves but have more of an attacking threat than they have had in recent years. In what will likely be a tight game, extra time or a penalty shootout are possibilities. Switzerland seems a little overpriced, so backing it to progress and a little sprinkling to win the game is our play.

Winner of tie - Switzerland
FanDuel +128 (5 units)

Moneyline - Switzerland
BetMGM +250 (2 units)

Sunday, June 30, 2024

England (-225) vs. Slovakia (+850) - noon EDT

Despite topping its group and not losing a game, England has arguably been the most underwhelming performer. It has yet to gel as an attacking unit and its 2.2 xG (expected goals) in the group stages ranked 22nd among the 24 teams. Defensively, England had the best expected goals against (1.1 xGA).

Slovakia reached the Second Round as one of the best third-placed teams in the groups. It upset Belgium in its opener before managing to only take a point against Ukraine and Romania. The two sides have faced each other five times in competitive fixtures, with England winning four (one draw). None of the five games saw more than three goals, so backing England to win a low-scoring affair looks best-priced.

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England's Group Stage in numbers

▪️ 0.38 xG conceded per 90 (1st)
▪️ 0.04 xG per shot conceded (1st)
▪️ 0.81 xG created per 90 (19th)
▪️ 1.6 Deep Completions (passes completed within 20m of goal) per 90 (23rd)
▪️ 45.6 Pressures in the opposing half per 90 (23rd)#Euro2024 pic.twitter.com/vCas12Nud0

— StatsBomb (@StatsBomb) June 26, 2024

Match winner and total goals - England and under 3.5 goals
FanDuel -128 (9 units)

While England's performances have been pretty dire, tournaments can still be won with a solid defense. England's hasn't been particularly tested yet, but it will have the easiest run to the final on paper. With Germany, France, Belgium, Spain, and Portugal all in the other half of the draw, England will expect to reach the final. If it can find a way to improve its attacking play, England should make it to Berlin on July 14.

To reach the Final - England
William Hill +138 (3 units)

Tuesday, July 2, 2024

Romania (+700) vs. Netherlands (-225) - noon EDT

Romania will feel aggrieved that it has to face the Netherlands after winning its group. Its 3-0 win against Ukraine helped its goal difference enough to finish top of Group E. The Dutch managed to avoid an early exit in a potentially tricky group. But they have not been able to perform effectively at both ends of the pitch in a game.

They were unlucky not to beat France but didn't carry much of a threat in the goalless draw. When they did look impressive attacking, they were vulnerable at the back. While I can see this game finishing 0-0, it feels like the Netherlands will need to put in a good attacking display rather than relying on a solid rearguard. That should give Romania enough opportunities to threaten the Netherlands' goal, so both sides scoring is too well-priced to ignore.

Both teams to score - Yes
All sportsbooks +120 (6 units)

Austria (-105) vs. Turkey (+375) - 3:00 p.m. EDT

Austria managed to top a group containing France, Netherlands, and Poland. After losing to France in its opener, it won its next two games, scoring three goals in each. Turkey progressed through Group F, scoring five goals in its three games. However, it hasn't been as impressive and also conceded five goals.

Turkey needed a 97th-minute goal to end Georgia's stubborn resistance. The minnows almost scored a late equalizer before Turkey's last-minute breakaway goal sealed a 3-1 win. Turkey was then soundly beaten by Portugal and again needed an injury time goal to beat Czechia, 2-1. That was after the Czechs were reduced to 10 men in the 20th minute with the game still scoreless. We should see plenty of goals, but Austria has been far more impressive in reaching the Second Round.

Ralf Rangnick has led Austria to a Euros knockout round for only the second time in their history.

In their win against the Netherlands, his side pressed in an extremely aggressive 4-2-2-2, which allowed them to win possession high up the pitch frequently. 🇦🇹🏃#Euro2024 pic.twitter.com/R2rWvt06ZZ

— The Coaches' Voice (@CoachesVoice) June 25, 2024

Moneyline - Austria
William Hill -105 (7 units)

Having won its group, Austria has a great chance to reach the final four of a major tournament for the first time in 70 years. If it progresses past Turkey, it will face the winner of the Romania and Netherlands game. It has already beaten the Dutch (3-2) in the group stage and would be favorites against Romania. So backing it to reach the semi-finals also has appeal.

To reach the semi-finals - Austria
William Hill +250 (2 units)

Parlays

As well as Austria reaching the quarter-finals, France should be able to overcome a Belgian side that was booed by its fans at the final whistle of its final group game. Like England, the French haven't been able to get the best out of their attacking players. But, they should still progress. Host Germany has been one of the more impressive teams so far and it should also be able to get past a resilient Denmark side.

Germany, France, and Austria all to reach the quarter-finals
DraftKings +168 (6 units)

Knockout ties can be edgy affairs, but Georgia's approach to the tournament has been refreshing. The underdogs have given it a go in every game and got rewarded when beating Portugal, 2-0. I fully expect Spain to beat it, but Georgia's approach won't change. It'll either give Spain a scare in a relatively high-scoring game or get pulled apart. Either way, expect goals. We'll pair that with the Austria and Turkey game.

Spain/Georgia and Austria/Turkey - Over 2.5 goals
FanDuel +226 (3 units)

We've yet to see one of the star strikers announce themselves at the Euros. That will undoubtedly change now that we've reached the knockout stage. Kylian Mbappé finally broke his European Championship duck against Poland last time out. He will be much more comfortable physically having played wearing the protective mask after breaking his nose in the opening game.

Kylian Mbappé’s shots on goal at a European Championship:

❌❌❌❌❌❌❌❌❌❌❌❌❌❌❌❌❌❌❌❌❌❌⚽️

Finally, he’s off the mark. 🎭#FRAPOL #EURO2024 pic.twitter.com/HsFbh8OTzM

— WhoScored.com (@WhoScored) June 25, 2024

Cody Gakpo has scored twice for the Dutch and will have chances to add to his tally against Romania. Alvaro Morata got on the scoresheet in Spain's opening game and was rested in the final group game, so he should be fresh. Georgia's 7.9 xGA in the groups was higher than all other teams. That trio all to score is our player prop play for the Second Round.

Kylian Mbappé, Cody Gakpo, and Alvaro Morata all to score
BetMGM +1900 (2 units)

Stick around for more Euro 2024 content. Is there a question you would like to have answered every week? Hit us up on X @RotoBaller. We would love to hear your feedback and ideas!