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Mike Fanelli explains why fantasy football players should avoid drafting potential busts Tua Tagovailoa, Aaron Jones, and Stefon Diggs in 2024 fantasy football drafts.
With the Scott Fish Bowl wrapping up, the NFL Hall of Fame Game between the Chicago Bears and Houston Texans is just around the corner.
Therefore, now is the time to start preparing for fantasy football redraft leagues. While finding league-winners is critical to winning a championship, avoiding players who will bust is equally significant.
Let’s look at three players I will avoid drafting in 2024 -- Tua Tagovailoa, Aaron Jones, and Stefon Diggs.
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Tua Tagovailoa 2024 Fantasy Football Outlook
Tagovailoa began last year on fire, averaging 2.7 passing touchdowns and 22.6 fantasy points per game over the first three weeks. However, his production fell off a cliff in the second half, averaging 12.4 fantasy points per game over the final seven regular-season contests.
TUA TO TYREEK. 54-YARD TOUCHDOWN.
📺: #DENvsMIA on CBS⁰
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/UQdQ05hqXN pic.twitter.com/xF87UGLgZ1— NFL (@NFL) September 24, 2023
The veteran struggles in the cold, completing 63.2% of his pass attempts in games 50 degrees or colder compared to 70.9% in games above 50 degrees last year (per Fantasy Points Data). Despite having Tyreek Hill at his disposal, Tagovailoa (15.9) averaged fewer fantasy points per game than Russell Wilson (17.1) and Jake Browning (16) last season.
Aaron Jones 2024 Fantasy Football Outlook
Jones missed six games and left others early with multiple injuries in 2023. More importantly, his production on the field was disappointing. He was the RB37, averaging 10.9 half-point PPR fantasy points per game.
Aaron Jones having a MONSTER game, but watch him grab his left hamstring at the end of this play as he gets close to the end zone.
Something to monitor.
pic.twitter.com/N3XpXxc4F1— Jeff Mueller, PT, DPT (@jmthrivept) September 10, 2023
More importantly, the veteran ranked 34th in explosive run rate (3.5%), 32nd in missed forced tackles per attempt rate (16%), and 21st in yards after contact per attempt (2.70) among running backs with at least 100 rushing attempts (per Fantasy Points Data). I don’t trust Jones, given his age, injury struggles, and situation in 2024.
Stefon Diggs 2024 Fantasy Football Outlook
Diggs has had late-season struggles in back-to-back years. He was the WR47 over the final eight games last season, averaging only 7.5 half-point PPR fantasy points per game and 0.41 fantasy points per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). I would consider giving the veteran another chance in 2024 if he was still Josh Allen’s No. 1 wide receiver.
However, Diggs won’t see the 27.5% target share and 28% targets per route run rate from last year after getting traded to the Texans this offseason. Nico Collins and Tank Dell will be C.J. Stroud’s top-2 weapons. There are several wide receivers with a later ADP than Diggs who I would draft ahead of him.
The Houston Texans have traded for Stefon Diggs..
THE HOUSTON TEXANS OF THE AFC SOUTH#PMSLive pic.twitter.com/48eM8w7u7N
— Pat McAfee (@PatMcAfeeShow) April 3, 2024
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