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Nate Duffett's MLB betting picks for 6/14/19. He analyzes Vegas lines and recommends the top expert bets for today's MLB slate including money-lines, spreads and totals.
Welcome to the Friday, June 14th edition of Rotoballer's MLB Betting Picks. I will be serving up some of my top options on today's 15 game slate.
In this article, we will dive into the numbers and pick out my top recommended betting picks for today's slate. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter @Roto_Nate if you have any questions.
So without any further delay, below are my picks for Friday, June 14th. Be sure to also check out all the MLB Vegas Odds and MLB Park Factors for today's slate. Good luck!
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Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins (-118)
O/U: 8.5
We see a high percentage of public money on the over which has moved the line to 8.5. I will roll the dice and take the under despite the publics love of the over, as Trevor Richards and Steven Brault have looked a lot better than their records and ERA's would suggest. Richards has allowed one or fewer runs in four straight starts, while Brault has two runs or fewer in five straight starts. The Pirates are in the middle of the pack in the Majors with a .316 wOBA vs right-handed pitching, while the Marlins are the worst team in the league versus left-handed pitching with a .270 wOBA.
My Pick: Under 8.5
New York Yankees (-115) @ Chicago White Sox
O/U: 8.5
Call me crazy for betting the over in a game that Lucas Giolito is pitching, but he has shown to be more susceptible to a bad outing at home this season. His ERA jumps up to 3.34 at home this season and has games where he has allowed three runs twice and an outing where he allowed five runs. These starts are huge outliers on a year where he has so many scoreless outings, but I can see him getting into trouble against the Yankees with his high fly ball tendencies. The Yankees send CC Sabathia to the mound, who comes into this game with a 5.68 ERA on the road.
The Yankees have hit the over in 23 of 32 games on the road this season, and this ballpark is one of the best parks in the majors for home run hitters. This sets up a great opportunity for them against Giolito. Combine this with some struggles from Sabathia and the game should easily approach the 8.5 total.
My Pick: Over 8.5
Milwaukee Brewers (-142) @ San Francisco Giants
O/U: 8
I was shocked when I saw the line for the Brewers, who send Zach Davies and his 7-0 record to the mound against Drew Pomeranz and his 7.16 ERA. I can't find a reason why they would have such low odds, as the Brewers are 7-3 in their last 10, with a 17-16 record on the road. The Giants have struggled at home this season, going 13-20 so far at Oracle Park. This could be the biggest mispricing on the slate tonight, and you can guarantee I will be taking advantage before the odds increase too much.
Davies has looked great this season, especially on the road where he boasts a 1.88 ERA. While Pomeranz has struggled mightily, he has been slightly better in the pitcher-friendly confines of Oracle Park as you can imagine. He has a 5.23 ERA at home and had a 5 inning scoreless outing against the Dodgers in his last start.
My Pick: Brewers (-142), Under 8
Cleveland Indians (-155) @ Detroit Tigers
O/U: 9.5
The Indians are finally starting to come around after a slow start to the season, getting back over .500 during their recent 6-4 stretch. They face a Tigers team tonight who has struggled at Comerica Park, going 11-21 on the season. Their starting pitcher Ryan Carpenter, in particular, has hated toeing the home mound, recording a 10.53 ERA in four starts.
This will be the first start for Adam Plutko on the road, but he has had two quality starts this season where he allowed two or fewer runs. His other start was a tough outing against the Rays, but the Tigers are a bottom-three team in the league against righties, while the Rays are top-ten. Plutko can handle the Tigers lineup pretty easily and should cruise to another quality start today.
My Pick: Indians (-155)
Nate's YTD picks: 32-18-1
