Top Fantasy Football D/ST Rankings (Weeks 5, 6, 7, 8, 9) - Defense Streamers and Starts

Welcome to the first installment of the Defense Edition of my Fantasy Matchmaker article series. In today’s fantasy football, the Defense/Special Teams (DST) starting roster spot is slowly becoming less common. Some prefer to replace that spot with another WR or flex. Half the leagues I am in do not have a DST.  Some see the DST position (and kicker) as too volatile and unpredictable for the potential impact they can have on a matchup. Some just want to start more RBs and WRs. And get it. Those leagues are fun. But much like the redraft, one-QB, half-PPR home league I’ve been in since 2006, there will always be a special place in my heart for the DST position.

I enjoy the process. Results are cool and all, but I enjoy the analysis, the hunt, across all fantasy skill positions. Looking for that next sleeper. Trying to be one week early on an upcoming waiver darling. These endeavors are a big part of the fun I have participating in fantasy football. And since my beginning, that has included the DST position.

I am a DST streamer. Always have been and always will be. I intentionally turn streaming DSTs into a jigsaw puzzle that I find fun and exciting. Don’t worry, I fully accepted and leaned into my existence as a huge fantasy football nerd long ago.

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D/ST Strength Of Schedule Overview

In this weekly series, I will be presenting my fantasy strength of schedule (SOS) for DST matchups.

I have been tweaking and adjusting my process for determining DST matchup strength over the last two years. My goal with this is to help all of you DST streamers out there by presenting the data and discussing my strategy and decision-making process.

There are different types of DST streaming targets every week as the NFL schedule plays out and new information becomes available. The structure of this article will start with presenting some relevant team defense statistics, such as turnover rate and points allowed, to be used for reference.

I will then show each DST/team’s schedule for the next five weeks with each opponent’s matchup strength based on adjusted fantasy points allowed to the DST position. This is what I’ll use to make my weekly DST streamer calls.

Each article will end with the rest of season (ROS) schedule for each DST showing the same opponent matchup strength, including the projected SOS for each DST during the fantasy playoffs.

In this weekly series, I will be presenting my fantasy strength of schedule (SOS) for D/ST matchups.

 

DST Strength of Schedule Process

In determining SOS and matchup strength, I use an adjusted fantasy points allowed system. I include the raw fantasy points allowed per game to the DST position. I then factor in how that PPG allowed compares to the opponent's average DST PPG. For instance, let’s say Team A allows 10 fantasy points to the Bills' DST. Team B allows five fantasy points to the Raiders DST. If looking only at raw fantasy points allowed, Team B is ranked as a tougher matchup having given up half as many points. But the Bills’ DST is averaging 16 PPG while the Raiders' DST is averaging only one PPG. Team A’s Points Allowed Over Average (PAOA) is negative seven. Team B’s PAOA is plus four. I assign a weight to PAOA which is factored into the overall rank.

The DST scoring system I base my process on is the standard ESPN DST scoring settings.

There are different types of streamer targets I will discuss. It’s similar to a workplace.

• “Temporary” Streamer: DST you are picking up to start for only that week.
• “Part-Time” Streamer: Available DST with multiple good matchups in a row.
• “Recruit” Streamer: Available DST with a good upcoming schedule that you pick up a week early. In general, I don’t advise rostering two DSTs. But there are times if you have an open roster spot when it makes sense to preemptively grab next week’s streamer. Typically you would do this for what would likely be a sought-after streamer, so you don’t have to use a waiver claim or FAAB.
• “Fool’s Gold” Streamer: A bad defense in a good matchup where the bad will outweigh the good. Do not start.

 

Week 5 Team Defense Statistics

Like any other fantasy skill position, there are two opposing forces at play. We need to look at the strength of the fantasy player (DST in this case) as well as the strength of the opponent versus the DST position. With DST, we look at the team’s defense and how their opponent has done against DSTs, or how good their opponent’s offense has been. This first section takes a look at team defense statistics that are relevant (both directly and indirectly) to how DST points are scored.

The chart below shows the following team defense statistics:

• Points Per Game (PPG) Allowed (regular NFL points, not fantasy points)
• Interception (INT) Rate (INT per pass attempt)
• Pressure Rate (QB pressures per dropback)
  • QB Pressure: When a QB is hurried, knocked down, and/or sacked
• Total Sacks
• Turnover Rate (percentage of drives ending in an offensive turnover)

*Team defense stats taken from Pro Football Reference.

This chart is arranged in alphabetical order, making it easier to see each team’s position across each statistic. The darker the green shading, the stronger that defense is in that metric.

Here is the same data arranged from highest to lowest.

This data does not factor into matchup strength. Instead, I use it for a couple of reasons. It helps provide context for the weekly RotoBaller DST ranks that will be used. And, more importantly, the team data can be crucial when faced with the common “bad defense in a good matchup” conundrum.

There won’t necessarily be much to glean from this data by itself every week. The upper-tier defenses will be at the top of these categories. These are the DSTs that don’t warrant much discussion in this series because they are highly rostered and typically are not streaming options. But I will point out noteworthy nuggets when they appear.

Another data set that is relevant to DST decisions includes the Las Vegas odds for things like over-under point totals, point spreads, and implied team total points. The oddsmakers are good at what they do and have a knack for being close to the mark on average. It’s a valuable piece of the puzzle. For instance, in general, a home favorite whose opponent has a low implied team total is a pretty good bet to not allow a lot of points to be scored.

And when the odds point toward a potential shootout, that’s not automatically a bad thing. Yes, a DST loses fantasy points as they allow more real points. I don’t attach as much weight to that as many seem to. I go into pretty much every week assuming my DST will receive approximately zero fantasy points from the points-allowed scoring setting. Typically, your DST starts with 10 points because zero points allowed are worth 10 fantasy points. After 18 points allowed, those fantasy points go down to zero. But after 18 points allowed, the decrease is much less significant. It’s not really until you get toward the 40 points allowed that you start losing noticeable fantasy points from that setting.

I am more interested in sacks and turnovers, worth the same amount all game long. If a DST is projected for a shootout, which typically involves higher than normal pass volumes and more plays, I look at both the interception and sack rate for my DST and how often the opponent throws picks and takes sacks. A shootout provides more opportunities for DST fantasy points from multiple scoring methods.

The following chart shows the Week 5 odds for each game, including over-under, point spread, and the resulting implied team point totals. I will refer back to this data when discussing this week’s DST targets.

 

DST Strength of Schedule: Weeks 5-9

In the debut of this series, I used a four-week look-ahead to look at the strength of schedule for DSTs. But we are now into the bye weeks, so I’m extending it to a five-week look ahead so we still have a total of four upcoming matchups to assess for each DST.

The following chart shows the five-week look-ahead schedule for each DST, with each opponent color-coded based on matchup strength.

The chart is sorted by left-most column, which is RotoBaller’s Week 5 DST rankings. The next column is crucial for the effectiveness of the advice. It shows the ESPN rostership percentage for each DST. The shading in this column is greener for lower rostership. I want the lower-rostered teams to stand out because that is the DST streamer player pool. It also helps spotlight lower-rostered DSTs that are ranked higher for that week (like the Lions, more on them later). The right-most columns show my current numbered ranks for each team in adjusted fantasy points allowed to the DST position. This allows you to see the numbered rank that is represented by the color-coding in the Weeks 5-9 opponents.

The following are my Week 5 DST streamers.

 

Week 5 DST Streamers

Detroit Lions (Temporary Streamer)

ESPN Rostership: 40.8%

The Lions are a Temporary Streamer with a Week 5 matchup with the 24^th-ranked Panthers followed by a Week 6 bout with the Buccaneers (12^th), a team that has been a surprisingly poor matchup for DSTs.

The Lions are an 8.5-point home favorite facing a rookie QB for a Panthers team with the second-lowest implied team total (18.3 points) of the week. The Lions could force the Panthers into a negative game script, leading to more pass attempts and potentially more turnovers. The Panthers may end up needing to lean on the pass anyway, as the Lions have been stout against the run this season (currently the third-toughest matchup for fantasy RBs).

this Lions defense is something special pic.twitter.com/wsn56FXjV3

— Grace (@gracesporttakes) September 29, 2023

Houston Texans (Borderline Part-Time Streamer)

ESPN Rostership: 10.9%

The Texans' offense is not the tantalizing target to play your DST against as it has been in recent years. The Texans DST is also not the “why would I ever start them” unit either. The Texans are one of those teams that have been bad for a while, and it can be difficult to get past the preconceived notions when just seeing the name “Texans” that we have about them as both a DST and a DST opponent. Since 2019, the Texans' DST has finished as the DST23, DST29, DST24, and DST16 in PPG. In 2023, the Texans’ DST ranks ninth in fantasy points per game according to Fantasy Pros, and that includes a minus-one-point effort in Week 2 against the Colts. They have averaged 12.5 fantasy points over the last two games and have a Week 5 matchup against the 28^th-ranked Falcons. The Texans rank within the Top 15 in (real NFL) PPG allowed, interception rate, pressure rate, and turnover rate. They have been very good against the pass as they are currently Top 10 in adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs and WRs.

The issue with the Texans' call against the Falcons is that the Texans’ Achilles heel on defense is versus the run. That is why they are not more of a slam-dunk DST play this week. The Falcons love to run the ball and have a stellar RB group. And the Falcons’ defense has also been much better than where our brains probably go when we see the name “Falcons.” The ideal scenario for the Texans’ DST is if CJ Stroud and company can force the Falcons into a negative game script. We want Desmond Ridder to throw the ball. The risk is if the Falcons keep the game close and can dictate the game by running the ball 40 times. If that is the way the game flows this might end up a bad call on my part.

Indianapolis Colts (Potential Part-Time Streamer)

ESPN Rostership: 9.2%

Surprisingly, the Colts have been a solid DST option, as they are tied with the Browns and the Texans with eight fantasy points per game against opponents I would not consider good DST matchups (Jaguars, Texans, Ravens, and Rams). The Colts face the 22^nd-ranked Titans at home. This game has one of the lower over-under point totals of the week (42.8) and the Titans’ implied team total is only 20.5 points. The Colts have been middle-of-the-pack in pressure rate, but they are tied for third in total sacks. It all boils down to whether they can limit the damage by Derrick Henry and force Ryan Tannehill to beat them through the air. Tannehill only has one interception since Week 1, but he is not running it like the Tannehill from a few years ago and has been sacked an average of four times per game. And take this with a grain of salt, but I also have a gut feeling about the Colts’ DST this week, and even though they are ranked as the DST17, I would play them over the next team on the list, the Green Bay Packers (DST9).

Green Packers (Temporary plus Recruit Streamer)

ESPN Rostership: 37.7%

The Packers are an okay streaming option in Week 5, but my least favorite of the teams I’ve discussed. The Packers face the 23^rd-ranked Raiders in Week 5 and are widely available at a 37.7% rostership. As of this writing, it is looking good for Jimmy Garoppolo to play in Week 5, but he has yet to officially clear the NFL concussion protocol. Garoppolo had been playing at a solid level before his concussion in Week 3, and his playing would slightly impact the Packers' DST outlook (compared to another start by Aidan O’Connell). The Packers are a slight road favorite (-1.5) putting the Raiders’ implied team total at 21.5 points. Green Bay is seventh in pressure rate but has not been great in the other team defense metrics and currently sits as the DST21 on the season. They scored a solid 15 fantasy points in Week 1 against the Bears, but have scored five fantasy points or less in the last three games against the Falcons, Saints, and Lions. The reason I call them a potential Recruit Streamer is because they do have a bye in Week 6, but then get the Broncos in Week 7. If you pick them up for Week 5, feel free to drop them during the first round of Week 6 waivers. Then you can consider picking them back up later in the week (if your roster allows it) as a preemptive move for their tasty Week 7 matchup with Denver.

 

Recruit Streamers

As a reminder, these are DSTs you would not start in Week 5, but have good matchups in Week 6, so you might consider a one-week stash if your roster allows that freedom.

• Atlanta Falcons (2.9% rostership): I would not start the Falcons in their Week 5 matchup with the Texans, but they are a good option in their Week 6 game with the 30^th-ranked Commanders.
• Seattle Seahawks (25.5% rostership): The Seahawks are on bye in Week 5 but get the struggling Bengals (18^th) in Week 6. The Seahawks are appealing after their 30-point bonanza against the Giants, but it remains to be seen whether that was matchup-based or the Seahawks have turned a corner with the return of Riq Woolen and the emergence of Devon Witherspoon.

It’s still early in the season so perhaps some of us are prone to a bit of hyperbole, but I’ve been beating this drum since the off-season:

It won’t take long before #Seahawks CB’s Devon Witherspoon and Riq Woolen become the BEST CB duo in the NFL.

Or are they already? pic.twitter.com/blKHU5jnfn

— Steezy A. Smith 🎙📺 (@steezyasmith) October 4, 2023

The Seahawks bring up an important point. Now that byes are here, decent DSTs will end up on waivers as managers battle with the decision of whether to keep a DST through their bye. These DSTs will fall under the Recruit Streamer category. The Seahawks are the only Week 5 bye team with a good Week 6 matchup. The Browns, Buccaneers, and Chargers play the 49ers (2^nd), Lions (14^th), and Cowboys (1^st), respectively, in Week 6. The Browns are an example of an upper-echelon defense that has a bad DST schedule in the short term, as their next fantasy-friendly DST matchup isn’t until Week 11 against the Steelers (20^th). The Buccaneers will likely be a Recruit Streamer next week as they get the Falcons (28^th) in Week 7.

 

Fool’s Gold Streamers:

These are DSTs with good matchups that you will be tempted to start. In the timeless “bad defense in a good matchup” dilemma, these are teams where the “bad defense” will win out over the “good matchup.”

Denver Broncos

ESPN Rostership: 5.7%

I’m going right back to the well with the Broncos as Fool’s Gold. This looked like a great call last week when the Bears jumped out to an early lead. But the Broncos came back and the DST saved themselves with a late pick-six. Ranked as the DST15 this week against the 25^th-ranked Jets, the Broncos might tempt you again. Avoid that temptation. I would start every team listed above over the Broncos DST in Week 5.

 

Rest of Season DST Rankings: Strength of Schedule

Lastly, make sure to double-check if any of these higher-rostered DSTs (>50%) are somehow available in your league. I would start these DSTs ahead of the streamers discussed in this article.

• Miami Dolphins (79.5%) versus the 32^nd-ranked Giants.
• Baltimore Ravens (75.4%) versus the 20^th-ranked Steelers.
• New York Jets (56.6%) versus the 26^th-ranked Broncos.
• Kansas City Chiefs (62.9%) versus the 16^th-ranked Vikings (just okay), but versus the Broncos in Week 6. Where I have the Chiefs DST I am taking my potential lumps with the Week 5 matchup so I can play them with confidence against Denver in Week 6.

I don’t rely too much on the later-season schedule SOS because things change rapidly in the NFL and I am not stashing a DST now for the Fantasy Playoffs that are 11 weeks away. But I do generate this data weekly so it makes sense to include it at the end of each article.

The five-week look-ahead shown above is just a close-up of this data, looking only at Weeks 5-9. This chart shows the remaining schedule for each DST (not including Week 18) and their color-coded opponents based on the current matchup strength rankings. On the right side of the column are two separate SOS scores. These scores are calculated by averaging the ranks of the opponents across two phases:

• The rest of the regular season (Weeks 4-14)
• Fantasy Playoffs (Weeks 15-17)

Thank you so much for reading! I love diving deep into the data in search of statistics and combinations of statistics that can help you make the best decisions possible in the maze of fantasy football decisions. If you have any questions about this article or general questions about fantasy football, reach out to me on Twitter (@MunderDifflinFF).

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