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Brandon Wampler's top DraftKings and FanDuel NHL DFS value plays and research for March 28th, 2023 including DFS analysis for goalies, power plays and stacks.
Welcome, RotoBallers! If you do not know me, my name is Brandon and I write both The First-Serve and The Kick-Off for Tennis and Soccer respectively. If you have not checked those out, make sure you do! It is the return of the NHL season which means it's time to sharpen our MLB skills and partake in NHL DFS! As always, I'll give you the best tools to succeed and the info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel Tuesday, 28th, 2023 at 7:00 PM EST. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets!
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else don’t hesitate to email me at [email protected] or via Twitter @df_solutions or in our premium slack chat. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 3/28/23
The league is approaching the final stretch run as many teams fight for a date with Lord Stanley and we have already started to see some teams like the Boston Bruins playing their star players less, to rest them for playoffs. This will become a bigger trend as we close in on playoffs and it can impact fantasy in a big way. It is important to understand this when making roster decisions. Tonight we have a 10-game slate with two teams playing on a back-to-back, Montreal and Edmonton. The currently live top-3 highest implied team totals are: New York with 4.5, Boston with 3.9 and Philadelphia with 3.7. I will do my best in guiding you through this ten-game slate on DraftKings and FanDuel starting at 7:00 p.m. EST.
DISCLOSURE: Make sure to monitor the news feed and play at your own risk
Goalies
Tristan Jarry DK $8.1K || FD $7.7K
Opponent - Red Wings
Jarry has a lot more to correct still, but he is starting to come back into form and it helps that his defense is actually attempting to stop the opposition in the neutral zone now instead of giving breakaways like they are going out of style. In Jarry’s last five games, he has 1 win but has managed to maintain a 0.900 Save Percentage or better in three of those contests. Over the last ten games, the Red Wings are in the bottom ten of the league in Scoring Chances For Per 60 and High Danger Chances Per 60, as well as being the worst in Goals For Per 60 – 1.28 –. Even with the Penguins’ struggles over the last month or so, this is a perfect chance to start stringing together some wins to hold onto the top wildcard spot in the East.
Others To Consider (Cash/GPP): Shesterkin (DK $8.5K || FD $8.4K), Vasilevskiy (DK $7.5K || FD $8.2K)
Centers
Mika Zibanejad-DK $7.8K || FD $8.3K
Opponent - Columbus Blue Jackets
Welcome to chalk central! The Rangers will be the most-owned team on the slate due to their goal-friendly matchup with the Columbus Blue Jackets. Elvis Merzlikins is day-to-day, leaving Michael Hutchinson as the expected starter. Out of all 78 goalies to play in their last ten team games, Hutchinson is the sixteenth-worst in Goals Saved Above Expected Per 60 – -1.10 – and the second-wost goalie on the slate – James Reimer the worst –. Furthermore, in the last 10 games, the Blue Jackets are the second-worst in, Shots Against Per 60 – 36.48 –, Scoring Chances Against Per 60 – 37.19 – and High Danger Chances Against Per 60 – 15.77 –. They are also the worst in Goals Against Per 60 – 5.3 –. Through Zbanejad’s last five games, he has 2 goals, 5 assists, 12 shots and 5 blocked shots. After not posting a point in the 4-3 win over the Panthers, this is the perfect spot to start a new point streak.
Noah Cates- DK $3.5K || FD $4.4K
Opponent - Montreal Canadiens
The Canadiens are coming into Philadelphia on a comeback 4-3 shootout win in Buffalo last night. Montreal once again conceded 3 or more goals in that game and they did so without Buffalo having Tage Thompson in the lineup. Over the last few months, the Canadiens have begun to play better defensively and it helps to have a healthy lineup, however, now their goaltending is failing – vice versa earlier on in the season –. In the last 10 games, Montreal is the tenth-worst in Scoring Chances Against Per 60 – 30.41 – and sixth-worst in Goals Against Per 60 – 3.56 –. The Flyers meanwhile are flying under many radars and it is their top line doing all of the work. Cates has 1 goal, 5 assists, 6 shots and 5 blocked shots in his last five matches. His peripherals are nowhere to be found, however, he is at least generating goals via himself or assisting others. In a game where the Flyers are expected to score 3 or more goals, Cates has a very good chance at keeping his point streak alive going against Montreal’s worst defensive lines.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Crosby (DK $7.2K || FD $8.2K), Danault (DK $4.9K || FD $5.5K)
Wings
Artemi Panarin- DK $6.2K || FD $7.2K
Opponent - Columbus Blue Jackets
To add another Ranger into the mix, Panarin is the superior winger on Zibanejad’s line lately. Tarasenko has struggled to produce since arriving in New York and he can only succeed off of others’ success. Panarin on the other hand is creating even more than normal with the extra pieces in the lineup for the opposition to focus on. Through his last five appearances, he has 4 goals, 3 assists and 11 shots. Going against Columbus’ poor defense – aforementioned above –, Panarin will have ample chances to produce here.
Viktor Arvidsson- DK $6K || FD $6.2K
Opponent - Calgary Flames
The Kings’ second line is back for another bite of the league. Kevin Fiala has recently been elevated to the second line from the third and it has instantly changed the offense. In the three games with Fiala on the line, Arvidsson has 5 goals, 2 assists and 14 shots. In comparison, in the five previous games before the move, Arvidsson had 1 goal, 1 assist, 24 shots and 5 blocked shots. Yes, his shot volume has gone down and it will with Fiala who also shoots a lot, however, Arvidsson has seen a dramatic increase in points due to Fiala’s creative injection. Neither of Calgary’s goalies can make saves right now and Arvidsson will get the cream of the crop for line matching tonight, setting him up for success.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Benn (DK $6.3K || FD $7.2K), Farabee (DK $3.5K || FD $4.7K)
Defense
Mackenzie Weegar- DK $4.2K || FD $4.4K
Opponent - Los Angeles Kings
At times Weegar has shown moments of brilliance throughout the season and at others, he has been invisible on the ice. The defenseman is currently riding another wave of form with 1 goal, 1 assist, 10 shots and 10 blocked shots in his last five games. Finding a defenseman with the potential ceiling at a manageable salary is hard. Weegar is playing on the top pairing, as well as, quarterbacking the second power-play unit for the Flames. In what is expected to be a close encounter with the Kings, Weegar is expected to see his floor and more here.
Pierre-Oliver Joseph- DK $3.2K || FD $3.8K
Opponent - Detroit Red Wings
PO Joseph is going to be a game-time decision play depending on how early news comes out, once again. Jeff Petry has sat out the last five games for the Penguins and POJ has taken over second power-play unit duties in his place. In that window, he has 1 goal, 2 assists, 11 shots and 6 blocked shots. Joseph has shown confidence on the ice lately with excellent decision-making at a critical time in the Penguins’ season. The Red Wings have struggled all season and in their last five home games, they have conceded 20 goals. With POJ playing alongside Kris Letang on the top pairing and quarterbacking the second power-play unit, this should be a ‘lock’.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Matheson (DK 5.6K || FD $6.7K), Krug (DK $4.4K || FD $5.6K)
NHL DFS Top Power Plays and Stacks
- NYR1
- PIT1
- DAL1
- VAN1
- WPG1
Brandon's Stack of the Day
- WPG: Connor-Dubois-Niederreiter
Chalk Stack
- NYR: Panarin-Zibanejad-Tarasenko
Sneaky Stack
- PIT: Zucker-Granlund-Joseph
