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Brandon Wampler's top DraftKings and FanDuel NHL DFS value plays and research for January 24th, 2023 including DFS analysis for goalies, power plays and stacks.
Welcome, RotoBallers! If you do not know me, my name is Brandon and I write both The First-Serve and The Kick-Off for Tennis and Soccer respectively. If you have not checked those out, make sure you do! It is the return of the NHL season which means it's time to sharpen our MLB skills and partake in NHL DFS! As always, I'll give you the best tools to succeed and the info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel Tuesday, 24th, 2023 at 7:00 PM EST. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets!
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else don’t hesitate to email me at [email protected] or via Twitter @df_solutions or in our premium slack chat. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 1/24/23
We are officially at the time of the year when each game is of its utmost importance as teams gauge whether they are a playoff contender, a seller or on the bubble. Tonight we have another large 11-game slate and two teams playing on a back-to-back: Florida and Buffalo. The currently live top-3 highest implied team totals are: Boston with 4.1, Vancouver with 4 and New Jersey with 3.8 goals. I will do my best in guiding you through this eleven-game slate on DraftKings and FanDuel starting at 7:00 p.m. EST.
DISCLOSURE: Make sure to monitor the news feed and play at your own risk
Goalies
Tristan Jarry- DK $8K || FD $8.4K
Opponent - Florida Panthers
The slate has many toss-ups tonight, leaving little in lines of value at the goalie position. Although, Jarry does fit the bill. The goaltender made his return four days ago, accumulating a win and a loss – 4-1 vs Ottawa and 1-2 vs New Jersey –. In both performances, Jarry did not stoop below a 0.920 Save Percentage and with an eye test, the Penguins have all of a sudden gained a large amount of confidence thanks to the sudden surplus of healthy bodies. The Panthers are struggling offensively right now and just lost 6-2 to the New York Rangers last night. The Panthers are currently at the top of the league in Shots For Per 60 – 30.83 –, however, they are the ninth-worst team in Goals For Per 60 – 2.27 –. This offers Jarry the chance to put together a ceiling game, barring he continues his form since returning from injury.
Others To Consider (Cash/GPP): Ullmark (DK $8.5K || FD $9K), Francouz (DK $8.2K || FD $8.3K)
Centers
Elias Pettersson-DK $7.3K || FD $9.4K
Opponent - Chicago Blackhawks
Pettersson couldn’t be in a better spot tonight. The center is in the midst of an ever-changing Canucks team, but he has continued to power through the season being the backbone of the team’s offense. Over his last five games, he has 1 goal, 3 assists and 15 shots. The Blackhawks are the sixth-worst team in Shots Against Per 60 – 32.26 –, and the eighth-worst team in both Scoring Chances Against Per 60 – 30.83 – and Goals Against Per 60 – 2.99 –, all over the last 10 games. Furthermore, expected Blackhawks starter Petr Mrazek is the seventh-worst goalie starting 5 or more games in Goals Saved Above Expected Per 60 – -0.518 –. The top two lines for the Blackhawks are their worst defensive lines and Pettersson should see equal time against both.
David Krejci- DK $4.7K || FD $5.8K
Opponent - Montreal Canadiens
Krejci is expected to see a fair share of ownership tonight thanks to his manageable salary. The center has been moved down to the second power-play unit for the Bruins, but he continues to produce. In his last five appearances, he has 6 assists, 6 shots and 7 blocked shots. His peripherals are meaningless and he will be considered a ‘punt’ play due to the lack of floor. However, he plays alongside one of the hottest wingers in the league – David Pastrnak – and he is going up against a poor defense and a poor defensive second-line for the Canadiens. In the last 10 games, the Canadiens are the third-worst team in Shots Against Per 60 – 34.3 –, the second-worst in Scoring Chances Against Per 60 – 36.1 – and they are one of the better teams in Goals Against Per 60 – 2.44 – thanks to their goalie Sam Montembeault who is expected to start. Going against a team like the Bruins will be a massive challenge for the goaltender. Can Krejci and company break the seal?
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Thompson (DK $9K || FD $10.2K), Zegras (DK $5.4K || FD $6.5K)
Wings
Brad Marchand- DK $7K || FD $8.4K
Opponent - Montreal Canadiens
David Pastrnak is another great option, especially since his linemate David Krejci was highlighted above, however, teammate Brad Marchand is a much better value play in a good spot. Marchand is at least $2.3K cheaper than Pastrnak depending on the platform you play on and he is putting up similar production. In Marchand’s last five games, he has 2 goals, 5 assists and 15 shots. The Canadiens’ defense has been mentioned once already – see above – and it offers the perfect opportunity for Marchand to continue his point-streak – 5 games –.
Andrei Kuzmenko- DK $4.6K || FD $6.4K
Opponent - Chicago Blackhawks
It would be shocking to not see Kuzmenko north of 20 percent ownership on the slate tonight. The winger is back with center Elias Pettersson and he has also been producing again, amassing 2 goals, 3 assists and 7 shots over his last five games. Chicago’s defense has been mentioned above. Kuzmenko is in a terrific spot at a very manageable salary. This is a ‘no-brainer’.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Tuch (DK $7.3K || FD $8.6K), Arvidsson (DK $5.6K || FD $6.5K)
Defense
Jeff Petry- DK $4.6K || FD $5.6K
Opponent - Florida Panthers
Barring a Kris Letang return, Petry is the ideal candidate tonight at defense. Not only is he playing on a high-powered offense in a great spot, but Petry is also in good form. The defenseman made his return along with teammate Tristan Jarry and he has 2 assists, 8 shots and 3 blocked shots in two games. Those are incredible numbers, especially coming off a month-long injury. After producing a dud last night against the Rangers – lost 6-2 –, the Panthers are playing on the second-half of a back-to-back and are still without their starting goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky. Knight is a much better option in net than Lyon was, however, he is not the greatest option either – -0.079 Goals Saved Above Expected Per 60 of all goalies starting 5 or more games –. This is an ideal floor game at a minimum for Petry.
Drew Doughty- DK $5K || FD $5.9K
Opponent - Philadelphia Flyers
There are not many options at all on defense for value with the possibility of a ceiling game. Doughty does at least check the box of a floor play though. The defenseman in 5 games has 1 goal, 4 assists, 13 shots and 10 blocked shots. The Flyers are not the strongest team defensively, offering a slight ceiling possibility for Doughty. He could prove to be one of the best well-rounded plays on defense.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): McAvoy (DK $5.6K || FD $6.9K), Hughes (DK $5.1K || FD $6.9K)
NHL DFS Top Power Plays and Stacks
- VAN1
- BOS1
- ANA1
- PIT1
- BUF1
Brandon's Stack of the Day
- VAN: Kuzmenko-Pettersson-Hughes
Chalk Stack
- BOS: Marchand-Bergeron-Pastrnak
Sneaky Stack
- ARI: Carcone-Guenther-Moser
