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Brenton Kemp's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 09/14/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, and other baseball bets.
We have nine games on this Thursday, Sept. 14 MLB schedule with action kicking off at 12:35 pm ET and running all the way through the 8:40 pm ET contest in Denver between the Giants and Rockies.
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Feel free to give me a follow on Twitter @BKemp17 with any questions or comments or plain ol' baseball talk! Now, let's dive into Thursday's free MLB betting picks and see if we can pad those bankrolls!
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Arizona Diamondbacks vs. New York Mets
O/U: 7 | Moneyline: NYM (-120)
ARI: Merrill Kelly | NYM: Kodai Senga
It's a spoiler night for the New York Mets as they welcome in the Arizona Diamondbacks who remain in a dogfight for the final Wild Card spot in the National League.
Desperate for wins, the D-backs will send the reliable Merrill Kelly to the mound as he looks to continue his season-long dominance. Kelly enters this one sporting a 3.16 ERA on the season across 26 starts, although his 3.76 FIP and 4.03 SIERA aren't quite as fond of his work. While those numbers remain solid, Kelly has once again been far better at home than he has been on the road.
His 3.53 ERA on the road remains rock-solid but he also sports a .753 OPS against on the road versus a .583 OPS against on his home turf where he sports a 2.81 ERA. He's allowed a .186 batting average at home compared to a .262 mark on the road while his 4.19 FIP away from home remains well above his road ERA.
On the other side is right-hander Kodai Senga who has been as advertised in his first season in North America. The rookie has turned in a 3.07 ERA across 26 starts to go along with a 3.56 FIP and a 4.02 ERA that is, admittedly, nearly a full run above his prevailing ERA. Nonetheless, the 30-year-old has tossed a stellar 2.52 ERA in 82 innings at Citi Field this season while his 3.12 home FIP is excellent.
Additionally, Senga has pitched to a dynamite 2.72 ERA and 3.16 FIP since the All-Star break and has allowed three earned runs or fewer in 13 consecutive starts with two earned runs or fewer surrendered in 11 of those 13 outings. This man has been on a mission.
The D-backs certainly own the offensive advantage in this one while both bullpens sit in the bottom 10 in terms of ERA on the campaign. However, It's awfully difficult to bet against the Mets' prized import at this juncture while Kelly is not at his best on the road.
Pick: Mets moneyline (-120, DraftKings sportsbook)
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: MIN (-175)
MIN: Kenta Maeda | CWS: Jose Urena
It's an AL Central tilt tonight in the Windy City as the Chicago White Sox play host to the Minnesota Twins, the latter of which is cruising towards an AL Central title at this point in the season.
The Twins will send veteran right-hander Kenta Maeda to the mound for this one as he hasn't had his best season. Maeda has tossed 18 starts of 4.65 ERA ball on the campaign while dealing with injuries throughout the season. However, his 4.20 FIP, 3.93 SIERA, and stellar 19.4% K-BB% all suggest he has pitched better than his ERA entails. His problem has been the long ball with a 1.52 HR/9 on the season while his ground-ball rate has dipped to a career-low 32.9%.
Getting the ball for the White Sox is right-hander Jose Urena and he is... not good. Urena has been tattooed for an 8.46 ERA in six starts between the Rockies and White Sox this season while he also owns a 9.70 FIP thanks to a 14.3% BB% that is above his tiny 10.7% K%.
The veteran hasn't posted an ERA below 5.01 in each of his last four seasons and, while he tossed four starts of 3.38 ball at Triple-A with Chicago, he also posted a 6.31 ERA in 15 starts at Triple-A in the Nationals organization this season.
There is zero debate about who the superior offense is here as the Twins sit in a share of seventh with a .328 wOBA on the season versus right-handed pitching while the Sox own a .293 wOBA off righties, good for dead last in all of baseball.
Finally, while the Twins' bullpen is tied for 16th with a 4.05 ERA on the season, the White Sox are 25th with a 4.84 ERA from their relievers on the campaign. This one shouldn't be close.
Pick: Twins -1.5 run line (-120, DraftKings sportsbook)
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