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Brenton Kemp's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 08/17/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, and other baseball bets.
We have a nine-game MLB schedule on tap as we comb through the value on the board!
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: BAL: (-110)
TOR: Jose Berrios| BAL: Kyle Gibson
The Blue Jays and Orioles get back together tonight in Baltimore and this one seems like a low-scoring affair.
Take Kyle Gibson, for example. The veteran right-hander sports a 4.97 ERA on the season but has also turned in a far superior 3.87 FIP and 4.37 SIERA across his 26 starts on the season. He has seen his ground-ball rate dip to 48.7% this season but the long ball has yet to bite him to this point.
As for Berrios, the right-hander sports a quality 3.39 ERA on the season. After a tough start, the veteran has seen his positive regression kick in while he has also turned in a 3.95 FIP and 4.19 SIERA. While some regression could kick in, Berrios has been a consistent member of the Jays' rotation this season.
The Jays' offense has been puzzling. It's been a struggle for the talented club to score runs lately and facing a pitcher due for positive regression will not likely help.
Let's look for a low-scoring affair tonight between a couple of AL East rivals tonight in Baltimore.
Pick: Under 9 runs (-120, DraftKings sportsbook)
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: ARI: (-170)
MIL: Brandon Williamson| ARI: Merrill Kelly
The Reds take their push toward an NL Central crown to the desert on Thursday as the D-backs attempt to keep their slim playoff hopes alive.
Williams' numbers leave a little to be desired. The rookie owns a 4.47 ERA across 17 starts for the Reds this season but he has also turned in a 4.76 FIP and 4.70 SIERA alongside a weak 12.2% K-BB%. He has actually allowed three earned runs or fewer in 13 of his 17 starts this season but the numbers aren't telling us his success is sustainable.
On the other side of the coin is D-backs right-hander Merrill Kelly. It's been a big season for Kelly, who has turned in a 3.13 ERA on the season, although his 4.13 FIP and 4.13 SIERA suggest he could see inferior results moving forward. However, Kelly has long been a better pitcher at home where he sports a 3.33 ERA for his career versus a 4.31 clip on the road. Of course, he'll be pitching where he's been at his best throughout his career.
While the Reds need every win they can get, the D-backs certainly own the advantage in the starting pitching matchup. They should be able to take care of the visiting Reds Thursday with ease.
Pick: D-backs run line (+120 DraftKings sportsbook)
Good luck, folks!
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