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Brenton Kemp's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 08/03/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, and other baseball bets.
It's an 11-game Thursday, Aug. 3 schedule as we get our usual dose of afternoon and evening baseball with the Phillies and Marlins getting us started at 12:10 pm ET while the Dodgers and A's complete the slate beginning 10 hours later. Below are today's top free MLB picks and analysis for this lengthy day of major league baseball!
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Minnesota Twins vs. St. Louis Cardinals
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: MIN (-130)
MIN: Sonny Gray | STL: Matthew Liberatore
The Minnesota Twins and St. Louis Cardinals get together for an interleague affair tonight in St. Louis as the former looks to grab a win in its bid to win a weak AL Central division this season.
The Twins will hand the ball to right-hander Sonny Gray who has had himself a nice season. Gray enters this one sporting a 3.22 ERA on the year but his 4.21 SIERA tells us there should be some regression coming over the next couple of months and potentially into the postseason. Perhaps that regression has already kicked in as Gray has surrendered 16 runs over his last four starts, allowing at least five earned runs in two of those four outings.
For the Cardinals, it is young left-hander Matthew Liberatore toeing the rubber as he makes his ninth start and 10th appearance in the big leagues this season. He's been rocked for a 6.75 ERA to this point while his 5.59 SIERA suggests he has indeed struggled. Liberatore will get some leash over the season's final two months with Jack Flaherty and Jordan Montgomery being moved at the trade deadline while he's been better at Triple-A, posting a 3.72 ERA across 11 starts.
Even with his struggles in the big leagues, Liberatore couldn't ask for a better matchup here. The Twins rank dead last with a .288 wOBA on the season against left-handed pitching while the Cardinals' offense has been the least of their worries, sitting sixth with a .331 wOBA versus right-handed pitching. If there is a team to deliver the regression coming for Gray, the Cardinals are a solid candidate to get it done.
Let's see if the home side can grab us some value tonight on the moneyline.
Pick: Cardinals moneyline (+110, DraftKings sportsbook)
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Oakland A's vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: LAD (-290)
OAK: JP Sears| LAD: Julio Urias
More interleague action is on tap tonight as a west coast clash between the Oakland A's and Los Angeles Dodgers concludes a lengthy day of MLB action.
The A's send left-hander JP Sears to the rubber as he's worked to a 4.09 ERA on the season, although he also sports a 5.19 FIP and 4.47 SIERA. Sears has been good in keeping walks to a 5.3% clip but he has also yielded 1.93 home runs per nine innings with a tiny 27% ground-ball rate on the campaign. Sears also sports a .235 BABIP that should rise considering his .289 mark from last season across 70 frames.
The Dodgers send a left-hander to the mound themselves as Julio Urias gets the ball tonight. The Dodgers' southpaw sports a disappointing 4.98 ERA on the season, albeit with a superior 4.15 SIERA. Nonetheless, this is a guy who tossed a 2.16 ERA in 31 starts last season. Injuries have no doubt played a role in his tough season while he's allowed 11 runs over his last two starts.
Given the pair of lefties on the mound, it makes obvious sense to see how each offense fares against southpaw pitching. That being said, it's a total mismatch as the Dodgers sit fourth with a hefty .340 wOBA off of lefties while the A's slip all the way to a share of 26th with a .298 wOBA versus southpaw pitching. It appears we are targeting a couple of teams struggling against lefties with today's picks.
Let's look for the Dodgers' offense to carry the load tonight and hit a run line bet at solid value.
Pick: Dodgers run line (-130, DraftKings sportsbook)
Good luck, folks!
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