RADIO
John's top NFL DFS lineup picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Thursday Night Football - the Jets vs Colts showdown slate. His Week 9 TNF daily fantasy football advice.
Happy Thursday, RotoBallers! Week Nine is here! I can't believe we're halfway through the season already. After what I thought was a great Thursday night game last week, we take a step backward as far as game quality goes, as the 2-5 Jets head to Indianapolis to take on the 3-5 Colts. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket.
In this article I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Thursday Night Football slate on November 4th. These lineups can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you have any questions you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts any time you'd like. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it!
DFS Captains/MVPs
Carson Wentz ($16,200 DK, $16,500 FD)
There's been a lot of stir and controversy in the media regarding Colts QB Carson Wentz, including Stephen A. Smith saying he's "done with him" earlier in the week. The fact of the matter is that Wentz is what he is. He's going to win you games and lose you games. Regardless, he's been great from a fantasy perspective this season. In eight games, Wentz has thrown for 1,926 yards, 14 touchdowns, and just three interceptions. He gets a strong matchup tonight against the Jets, who have a defensive pass DVOA of 16.85%, which ranks 27th in the NFL.
Jonathan Taylor ($13,500 DK, $16,000 FD)
It took a few weeks, but Jonathan Taylor has come alive as the top-five fantasy running back I expected him to be this year. He's rushed 121 times for 649 yards and seven touchdowns while catching 21 of 25 targets for 265 yards and a score. He's now averaging 17.74 FD points per game and 20.7 DK points per game. He gets a fantastic matchup against the Jets tonight, who come in with a defensive DVOA against the run, coming into this one at 24.1% which ranks 23rd in the NFL. It's worth noting that the spread in this one is at -10.5 for Indy, giving him a slight boost as he should see an increase in touches as the Colts build their lead.
Other Captain/MVP Plays: Mike White, Colts D/ST (DK GPP Only)
DFS Flex Plays
Mike White ($9,800 DK, $14,000 FD)
As much as I want to consider the reigning AFC Offensive Player of the Week as one of my top captain/MVPs of the week, I can't bring myself to it. While last Sunday was awesome, it most likely was an outlier. Not to say that White isn't an option on this slate, clearly, as there aren't very many options. He most certainly has some garbage time upside if the game gets out of hand though, as the Colts come into this one with a defensive DVOA of 11.9%, which ranks 20th in the NFL. The loss of WR Corey Davis isn't ideal, but White should still end up one of the highest players on the slate.
Michael Carter ($8,600 DK, $13,000 FD)
I must say, I'm super upset that I let go of Michael Carter in season-long leagues when I did, as he's really picked it up in the last four weeks he's played. In his last two games specifically, he's rushed for 114 yards and a touchdown on 26 carries, while catching an incredible 17 passes on 23 targets for 162 yards. I don't expect him to put up any crazy rushing numbers tonight, but could be in a good position to catch some passes out of the backfield. The Colts come into this one with a defensive DVOA of 7.3% against running backs in the passing game, which ranks 23rd in the NFL.
Other Flex Plays: Michael Pittman, Jameson Crowder, Ty Johnson
DFS Value Plays
Colts D/ST ($5,000 DK)
While the Jets did score 34 points on Sunday, I wouldn't bet on that to happen again. They still rank 31st in the NFL in offensive DVOA (-17.6%) and get a brutal matchup against the Colts defense who comes in with a defensive DVOA of -9.1% which ranks 12th in the NFL. With QB Mike White making his first road start without WR Corey Davis tonight, it's unlikely we see a repeat performance. The Colts are jonesing for a win, and I expect their defense to step up after a brutal performance on Sunday.
Michael Badgley ($4,400 DK, $9,500 FD)
I can very easily see an avenue that Badgley is in the top lineup on tonight's slate. While I think the Colts should be able to put points up on the board, there's also a good chance of them stalling out on multiple drives as the field shortens, leaving field goal opportunities for Badgley. I think he has a solid floor tonight, and I'll likely have quite a bit of him.
Other Value Plays: Nyheim Hines, Mo Alie-Cox
Overall Slate Note
This slate is kind of gross, with each team missing a wide receiver in already semi-concentrated offenses. In my opinion, I think the most likely game script reads exactly like the Vegas line predicts, a lower-scoring game that ends in a one or two-possession victory for the Colts. I think the Colts move the ground primarily through the run game, with Wentz taking a few deep shots to the likes of Michael Pittman, Zach Pascal, and company. I'm not in love with any of the Colts' pass-catchers individually as they're all in mediocre matchups (shoutout to my former Pop Warner teammate, Jets CB Bryce Hall). I prefer Michael Carter on DK, due to the wide price difference and full point PPR scoring. Strap in folks, this will be an ugly one. Best of luck tonight!
Have a good Thursday everyone, see you soon!
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