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John's top NFL DFS lineup picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Thursday Night Football - the Chiefs vs Chargers showdown slate. His Week 15 TNF daily fantasy football advice.
Happy Thursday, RotoBallers! Week 15 is here! This season has been going by super quickly, but truthfully I've been having a ton of success as well as a ton of fun. We have a rather interesting contest tonight as the Chiefs (9-4) head to the City of Angels to take on the Chargers (8-5). This is a battle that should put a dent in the AFC West divisional race regardless of the result, and it should be an exciting one. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket.
In this article I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Thursday Night Football slate on December 16th. These lineups can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you have any questions you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts any time you'd like. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it!
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DFS Captains/MVPs for DraftKings, FanDuel
Justin Herbert ($16,200 DK, $16,500 FD)
Key Stats:
- 2021 Stats: 3,822 passing yards, 30 touchdowns, 11 interceptions.
- Offensive Pass DVOA: 36.1% (3rd)
- Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 5.3% (15th)
While the Chiefs' defense has been playing well, I'm surprised that Herbert is the cheaper quarterback on both sites here. I know Mahomes is on the other side, but Herbert has been on an absolute tear of late. Herbert has thrown for at least 300 yards and at least three touchdowns in three of his last four games and now gets a matchup against the Chiefs who he threw for 281 yards and four touchdowns against in week three. The Chiefs' defense has certainly improved since then, but with the impending shootout on our hands tonight, it's hard to think that Herbert won't put some numbers up.
Recommendation: Cash/GPP (DK/FD)
Best Correlations: Keenan Allen, Patrick Mahomes
Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($10,500 DK, $9,500 FD)
Key Stats:
- 2021 Stats: 101 attempts, 458 yards, five touchdowns, 18 targets, 16 receptions, 107 yards, five touchdowns.
- 2021 Data: 49.03% attempt rate, 35.71% red-zone attempt rate, 20% rate within the 5yd line, 6.79% target rate, 8.82% red-zone target rate, one end zone target.
- Offensive Rush DVOA: 2.6% (6th)
- Opposing Defense Rush DVOA: 3% (32nd)
While I'm fully expecting both quarterbacks to go out and sling it tonight, we have to give a little love to the running backs here as well. I would have Ekeler here but I'm not sure he'll be playing (I think he will, but who knows). I love CEH in this spot too. With the Chargers coming in as the worst rushing defense in the league statistically, it's very possible that the Chiefs try to control the game using CEH on the ground. He ran for 100 yards against them in week three, and I wouldn't be surprised if he does it again tonight. The only reason I don't love him as an "optimal" play is due to the potential of Darrel Williams and Derrick Gore taking away carries, but I'll be willing to eat that risk in GPPs.
Recommendation: GPP (FD/DK)
Best Correlations: Travis Kelce, Justin Herbert
Other Captain/MVP Plays: Patrick Mahomes, Keenan Allen
DFS Flex Plays for DraftKings, FanDuel
Patrick Mahomes ($12,000 DK, $17,000 FD)
Key Stats:
- 2021 Stats: 3,642 passing yards, 27 touchdowns, 12 interceptions.
- Offensive Pass DVOA: 26.9% (8th)
- Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 1.5% (9th)
While I mentioned that Herbert should be the higher-priced quarterback of the two, you can't go into this slate without considering Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes hasn't put out the greatest fantasy production in the second half of this season, but he bounced back on Sunday with 258 yards and two scores. He threw for 260 yards and three touchdowns against the Chargers in week three, and I think he throws for 300+ tonight. In a divisional prime-time game, you're going to want both sides of this QB matchup.
Recommendation: Cash/GPP (FD/DK)
Best Correlations: Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Justin Herbert
Mike Williams ($7,400 DK, $11,500 FD)
Key Stats:
- 2021 Stats: 99 targets, 61 receptions, 915 receiving yards, seven touchdowns.
- 2021 Data: 20.08% target rate, 19.44% red-zone target rate, eight end zone targets.
- Individual Matchup (vs Mike Hughes): 18% target per route covered, 62% catch rate, 0.33 fantasy points per route.
Mike Williams was in a smash spot on Sunday and didn't necessarily deliver, which means he'll go absolutely crazy tonight against the Chiefs. That's just how it works. I'm hoping Williams is able to return to his early-season form and catch seven passes for 122 yards and two touchdowns like he did against the Chiefs in week three, but even if he doesn't, he's at a favorable price to fit in your lineups (especially on FD), and has the upside of being the highest-scorer in this game.
Recommendation: GPP (DK), Cash/GPP (FD)
Best Correlations: Justin Herbert, Patrick Mahomes
Other Flex Plays: Austin Ekeler (if playing), Travis Kelce
DFS Value Plays for DraftKings, FanDuel
Jared Cook ($5,400 DK, $7,500 FD)
Key Stats:
- 2021 Stats: 64 targets, 38 receptions, 408 receiving yards, four touchdowns.
- 2021 Data: 12.98% target rate, 15.28% red-zone target rate, nine end zone targets
- Individual Matchup (vs Anthony Hitchens): 13% target per route, 79% catch rate, 0.29 fantasy points per route.
This is a great matchup for Cook, and while he's more of a high-upside play on FD, I think he's optimal on DK. He's seen five targets in three of his last four games and has caught a touchdown in two of his last three. He caught just two of three targets against the Chiefs in week three, but with a 15.28% red-zone target rate and nine end zone targets, he could very easily hit value if he sees 4-5 targets.
Recommendation: Cash/GPP (FD/DK)
Best Correlations: Justin Herbert, Patrick Mahomes
Harrison Butker ($4,000 DK, $9,000 FD)
I think the Chiefs ultimately pull this one out, and I think Butker will play a decent part in it. He's knocked down a 50+ yard field goal in each of his last two games, scoring 13 and 14 fantasy points in back-to-back weeks. In a game where most of the offensive options are in the high-tier price range, we'll need some value to even out our lineups. We'll ride the hot hand (foot?) in this one and go with Butker.
Recommendation: Cash/GPP (FD/DK)
Best Correlations: Patrick Mahomes, Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Other Value Plays: Mecole Hardman, Jalen Guyton
Overall Slate Note
This should be a fun and entertaining matchup between two high-powered offenses. I'll likely split things 50/50 generally speaking across both offenses, with a QB + WR + WR/TE stack and an RB/WR/TE "runback" on DK or a QB "runback" on FanDuel. It'll be tough to stuff guys in so I would suggest using guys like Jalen Guyton, Byron Pringle, MeCole Hardman, and both kickers to fill in the value gaps where you need them. This one should be a doozy, good luck!
Have a good Thursday everyone, see you soon!
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