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Dan Palyo's top NFL betting picks and best bets for Super Bowl LIX. His favorite NFL betting picks for NFL player props bets for the Super Bowl.
The Super Bowl is just days away and there's simply no sports event that invites more gambling than this one! I'm resisting the urge to bet on a side or total this year and most of my action will be on player props for this highly anticipated rematch of Super Bowl XLVII.
They say bet with your head not your heart, so while I am rooting for the Eagles (as a Pennsylvania resident), I am also not willing to bet against Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid, and Steve Spagnolo either!
I am using primarily FanDuel and DraftKings here for my odds strictly for convenience, but if you can find better odds at another book - go for it! In this article, I'll provide my favorite NFL prop bets for the Super Bowl on Sunday, February 9th.
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NFL Betting Picks: Player Props for Super Bowl LIX
Jalen Hurts longest rush OVER 13.5 yards (-110 DK)
Hurts went over this number in ten out of 18 starts in the regular season and playoffs. He had a long scramble in five straight games going into last week's NFC Championship when he simply didn't need to scramble much as the Eagles dominated and led wire to wire.
In Super Bowl 47, Hurts ran 15 times for 70 yards, including a 28-yard scramble. His legs are a major weapon and he's not going to hesitate to use them when pressured. Plus, the Eagles will have some designed runs schemed for him, too, and if the defense bites on the fake to Barkley, Hurts might pull it on an option play and rack up a big gainer.
.@JalenHurts ripped a 44 yard rushing TD in the @Eagles Divisional Round win.
It was the longest of his career—regular or postseason—and the fourth longest rushing TD by a QB in @NFL playoff history! 💪 pic.twitter.com/sDlDuSFmrX
— NFL Football Operations (@NFLFootballOps) January 22, 2025
DeVonta Smith OVER 4.5 receptions (-110 DK)
It's no secret at this point of the season that the Chiefs' weakness in their pass defense has been against slot receivers and tight ends - pass catchers that tend to do the majority of their work between the hashes. KC allowed the fifth-most fantasy points (PPR) to slot receivers this season and was one of only two teams that allowed more production to slot receivers than wideouts.
.@DeVontaSmith_6 is always at his best against the Chiefs😤#FlyEaglesFly | #SBLIX pic.twitter.com/oEdaOYcL5q
— NFL GameDay (@NFLGameDay) February 3, 2025
Smith lines up in the slot about 50% of the time, while A.J. Brown operates out wide over 80% of the time. I like Smith's yardage prop, too, but his receptions feel like an easier number to hit as I think Jalen Hurts is going to rely on him in the short passing game to keep the chains moving.
Dallas Goedert OVER 52.5 receiving yards (-112)
Since returning to the lineup in Week 18, Goedert has resumed a major role in the Eagles' offense. The Eagles don't use a lot of three or four-receiver sets and instead, opt to use Godert as both a blocker and pass-catcher in their base set.
After a down year last season, Goedert raised his average yards per touch back up to 11.8 yards in 2024. He played in just ten games, but his efficiency was back to where we were used to seeing it. In the playoffs so far he has been averaging five catches (on six targets) for 62.6 yards. With the Chiefs allowing the third-most fantasy points to opposing TEs during the regular season, this feels like a matchup that the Eagles can exploit.
Dallas Goedert returned from knee injury in Week 18. Since then, has seen 24 targets on 83 routes. Wildly high 29% TPRR.
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) January 27, 2025
Goedert has some major YAC upside, even if the Eagles are just dumping him the ball on short passes. 123 of his 188 yards this postseason have come after the catch.
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Anytime Touchdown Scorers
Dallas Goedert (+310 FD)
Goedert had only two regular-season touchdowns but also had a solid 17% red zone target rate. Instead of betting on Hurts or Barkley at wide odds, I'm much more interested in betting on their secret weapon - a big-bodied, sure-handed tight end who makes for a great target down around the goal line.
We saw Goedert score his third TD this year in the Eagles' Wild Card win over the Packers and I won't be surprised to see him find paydirt in the Super Bowl. He's a physical beast who is hard to bring down, and Philly would be wise to utilize him in the red zone.
Patrick Mahomes (+400 FD)
Mahomes had only one rushing touchdown all season but then ran for two scores against the Bills when it mattered the most in the AFC Championship.
He carried the ball seven times against Houston in the divisional round and 11 times against Buffalo. Some of those were designed runs, including one of his touchdown runs. These odds are really attractive for a mobile QB who has shown he's not afraid to put his head down and run for the end zone in tough spots.
Super Bowl MVP
Jalen Hurts (+370 FD)
Quarterbacks have won the Super Bowl MVP 32 times (out of 58 games), which is good for a 55% win rate. Yet Saquon Barkley has shorter odds (+250) to win it than Hurts. The favorite to win it is Mahomes at +120, but if the Eagles pull out this win, then it's most likely either Barkley or Hurts who will walk away with the honors.
If the Eagles do win and this game is relatively high-scoring, it's hard to see Hurts not winning the honor. He'd have to go without a passing TD or rushing TD and I think Barkley would have to have a massive game (and most of the touchdowns) to beat him out. These odds are just too good! I like the Eagles to win this game and if they do, I think Hurts walks away with the MVP honors.
Now go enjoy the game and all of our other Super Bowl content here at RotoBaller!
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