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If you like sports betting, then you've come to the right place! Whether you like to bet game totals, sides, or player props, I have something in here for you and try to cover a little bit of everything!
This year, I started my own free sports betting newsletter, and the good people here at RotoBaller are allowing me to share my picks and data with you here in this space! You can access the free substack here and sign up for daily emails in addition to viewing the picks daily here on the RotoBaller website.
In this article, I'll be providing my MLB favorite betting picks on Wednesday, August 24th, 2022. The odds on these bets vary from book to book and are constantly changing. I primarily use FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks, but I would strongly encourage you to shop for the best odds at whatever books you use daily. I would also advise checking back later in the day as I may add bets depending on odds changing or specific props becoming available after I first post.
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MLB Betting Picks: Strikeout Projections
I do my own strikeout projections for just about every pitcher, every day. I use both season-long data and the most recent 14-day rolling samples from pitchers and opposing hitters when calculating these projections and I also include some other helpful stats here that I look at while making my picks, including pitchers' SwStr%, BB%, etc... These are median projections that are based on the average length of start for each pitcher, so if you think a pitcher is going to pitch deeper or less deep than usual, adjust accordingly.
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MLB Betting Picks: Pitcher Prop Bets
Kyle Wright o5.5K vs. PIT (+115 FD)
It’s not an auto-play just because it’s the Pirates, Wright has been solid all season with a good swinging strike rate and low walk rate to back up this play. He’s projected a full 1.1K over his total, smash this play at plus odds.
Logan Webb o4.5K vs. DET (-140 DK)
Webb isn’t a high K pitcher, but he has shown that he can smash in good spots before against bad teams. And that’s exactly what this spot is, Detroit is striking out well over 30% of the time lately and Webb should pitch deep enough in this one to get his 5+.
Shane McClanahan o6.5K vs. LAA (-155 DK)
Andrew Heaney o6.5 vs. MIL (-140)
I am going to lump these two studs together. Shane Mac looked back to his usual form his last start, but his number is still lower than usual despite having an elite match-up today. The only catch is the juice, but I’m still on it and I’m guessing it will be on the rise. The same principle applies to Heaney here, who just whiffed 10 Brewers last time. A lot of juice on a somewhat-big number, but he’s an elite K pitcher in a perfect matchup.
Zac Gallen o5.5 vs. KCR (-120 DK)
Gallen is coming off a 12 strikeout performance and has 6+ now in three straight. The Royals lineup is hard to project, but they do have a lot of younger hitters in there to finish out the season and their K rate has been on the rise.
Cole Irvin o4.5 vs. MIA (-145 DK)
This one is TOUGH because Irvin simply isn’t a strikeout pitcher as you can see by his 9% SwStr%. But Miami is such a good spot for lefties and Irvin has such great control and the ability to pitch deep into games that he could fall into 5+ strikeouts. Even Zach Logue, a Triple-A level pitcher, had seven against the Marlins last night…
Jesus Luzardo o5.5 vs. OAK (-160 DK)
Revenge game anyone? Just kidding, but I think Luzardo is pretty safe for 6+ tonight against his former squad. I don’t love this juice, but I will be mixing and matching a lot of these juiced props and building some parlays or round robins tonight to help boost the odds.
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MLB Betting Picks: Sides and Totals
A little mix here of money line, team total, and a game total. I like all three spots quite a bit.
BAL ML (+100 DK)
The Orioles didn’t disappoint as underdogs last night, and if you check the updated trends chart, you’ll see they have one of the best win percentages and dogs in the league at 48.5%.
Giolito vs. Watkins might make your brain think “this is a dumb bet,” but didn’t some of you think that yesterday with Cease vs. Voth? The White Sox are struggling right now to score and Giolito hasn’t been his usual self for most of the year.
OAK/MIA under 7 runs (-120 DK)
These offenses both stink, there’s really no way to sugarcoat it. If you had the under last night (I didn’t), you probably tilted three meaningless runs in the bottom of the ninth from Oakland that pushed the game to eight total runs.
If you really wanted to be safe, you’d go UNDER in the F5 here as both starters (Irvin and Luzardo) should handle the opposing offenses, and last night these teams combined for just one run in the first five. But I like the odds on the full game total here better, and you know I am already on both pitchers and their K props as well.
LAD over 4.5 runs (-135)
The Dodgers just smacked around Corbin Burnes last night and then finished with 10 runs. They’re rounding in form lately and have probably the most dangerous lineup in all of baseball. Adrian Houser returns to the rotation tonight for Milwaukee and he’s going to get greeted rather rudely by the Dodgers, I think. Houser has been pretty pedestrian when healthy and hasn’t missed many bats.
MLB Betting Picks: Betting Trends
I usually include this chart at least once a week in my newsletter, so that readers can see how every team has fared in specific situations this year. I like looking at trends, but I use them to support my data-driven picks, I don't rely on them by themselves.
Some new data was added here with "win percentage as favorite" and "win percentage as underdog" - inspired by Baltimore!
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I hope you find my data and picks helpful and profitable! Thanks for checking out my picks and content here at RotoBaller!
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