X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


LINEUP RESOURCES

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Pickups & Streamers
Rookies & Call-Ups
News and Alerts

Thunder Dan's MLB Betting Picks for August 24: Pitcher Props, Totals, Money Line Bets

If you like sports betting, then you've come to the right place! Whether you like to bet game totals, sides, or player props, I have something in here for you and try to cover a little bit of everything!

This year, I started my own free sports betting newsletter, and the good people here at RotoBaller are allowing me to share my picks and data with you here in this space! You can access the free substack here and sign up for daily emails in addition to viewing the picks daily here on the RotoBaller website.

In this article, I'll be providing my MLB favorite betting picks on Wednesday, August 24th, 2022. The odds on these bets vary from book to book and are constantly changing. I primarily use FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks, but I would strongly encourage you to shop for the best odds at whatever books you use daily. I would also advise checking back later in the day as I may add bets depending on odds changing or specific props becoming available after I first post.

Featured Promo: Our brand NEW exclusive Props Optimizers for Prop Bets and Prizepicks DFS Props are available for 50% off for a very limited time. Use discount code PROPS and win big with RotoBaller's prop picks today. SIGN UP NOW

 

MLB Betting Picks: Strikeout Projections

I do my own strikeout projections for just about every pitcher, every day. I use both season-long data and the most recent 14-day rolling samples from pitchers and opposing hitters when calculating these projections and I also include some other helpful stats here that I look at while making my picks, including pitchers' SwStr%, BB%, etc... These are median projections that are based on the average length of start for each pitcher, so if you think a pitcher is going to pitch deeper or less deep than usual, adjust accordingly.

(click to enlarge)

 

MLB Betting Picks: Pitcher Prop Bets

Kyle Wright o5.5K vs. PIT (+115 FD)

It’s not an auto-play just because it’s the Pirates, Wright has been solid all season with a good swinging strike rate and low walk rate to back up this play. He’s projected a full 1.1K over his total, smash this play at plus odds.

Logan Webb o4.5K vs. DET (-140 DK)

Webb isn’t a high K pitcher, but he has shown that he can smash in good spots before against bad teams. And that’s exactly what this spot is, Detroit is striking out well over 30% of the time lately and Webb should pitch deep enough in this one to get his 5+.

Shane McClanahan o6.5K vs. LAA (-155 DK)

Andrew Heaney o6.5 vs. MIL (-140)

I am going to lump these two studs together. Shane Mac looked back to his usual form his last start, but his number is still lower than usual despite having an elite match-up today. The only catch is the juice, but I’m still on it and I’m guessing it will be on the rise. The same principle applies to Heaney here, who just whiffed 10 Brewers last time. A lot of juice on a somewhat-big number, but he’s an elite K pitcher in a perfect matchup.

Zac Gallen o5.5 vs. KCR (-120 DK)

Gallen is coming off a 12 strikeout performance and has 6+ now in three straight. The Royals lineup is hard to project, but they do have a lot of younger hitters in there to finish out the season and their K rate has been on the rise.

Cole Irvin o4.5 vs. MIA (-145 DK)

This one is TOUGH because Irvin simply isn’t a strikeout pitcher as you can see by his 9% SwStr%. But Miami is such a good spot for lefties and Irvin has such great control and the ability to pitch deep into games that he could fall into 5+ strikeouts. Even Zach Logue, a Triple-A level pitcher, had seven against the Marlins last night…

Jesus Luzardo o5.5 vs. OAK (-160 DK)

Revenge game anyone? Just kidding, but I think Luzardo is pretty safe for 6+ tonight against his former squad. I don’t love this juice, but I will be mixing and matching a lot of these juiced props and building some parlays or round robins tonight to help boost the odds.

 

Sports Betting Promo Offers

All new sign-ups also get a free year of RotoBaller's all sports Premium Pass ($450 value)!

Sportsbook Bonus Offer Promo
Caesars Risk-Free First Bet Up To $1,250
PointsBet Up To $500 In 2nd Chance Bets
BetMGM Risk-Free First Bet Up To $1,000
FanDuel Bet $5, Get $150 In Bonus Bets
DraftKings Deposit Bonus Booster Up To $1,000
 



 

Featured Promo

Offer is only valid for new users

All new sportsbook sign-ups get a free year of RotoBaller Premium access ($450 value)!

1. Just sign up for a new account
2. Make a minimum deposit of $20 and place any bet
3. Be sure to claim your bonus offer from the sportsbook
4. Email us at [email protected] with your new account details
5. Boom - that's it! We'll email you with your year-long RotoBaller Premium Pass

CLAIM NOW!

 


 

MLB Betting Picks: Sides and Totals

A little mix here of money line, team total, and a game total. I like all three spots quite a bit.

BAL ML (+100 DK)

The Orioles didn’t disappoint as underdogs last night, and if you check the updated trends chart, you’ll see they have one of the best win percentages and dogs in the league at 48.5%.

Giolito vs. Watkins might make your brain think “this is a dumb bet,” but didn’t some of you think that yesterday with Cease vs. Voth? The White Sox are struggling right now to score and Giolito hasn’t been his usual self for most of the year.

OAK/MIA under 7 runs (-120 DK)

These offenses both stink, there’s really no way to sugarcoat it. If you had the under last night (I didn’t), you probably tilted three meaningless runs in the bottom of the ninth from Oakland that pushed the game to eight total runs.

If you really wanted to be safe, you’d go UNDER in the F5 here as both starters (Irvin and Luzardo) should handle the opposing offenses, and last night these teams combined for just one run in the first five. But I like the odds on the full game total here better, and you know I am already on both pitchers and their K props as well.

LAD over 4.5 runs (-135)

The Dodgers just smacked around Corbin Burnes last night and then finished with 10 runs. They’re rounding in form lately and have probably the most dangerous lineup in all of baseball. Adrian Houser returns to the rotation tonight for Milwaukee and he’s going to get greeted rather rudely by the Dodgers, I think. Houser has been pretty pedestrian when healthy and hasn’t missed many bats.

 

MLB Betting Picks: Betting Trends

I usually include this chart at least once a week in my newsletter, so that readers can see how every team has fared in specific situations this year. I like looking at trends, but I use them to support my data-driven picks, I don't rely on them by themselves.

Some new data was added here with "win percentage as favorite" and "win percentage as underdog" - inspired by Baltimore!

(click to enlarge)

I hope you find my data and picks helpful and profitable! Thanks for checking out my picks and content here at RotoBaller!



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Analysis




LINEUP RESOURCES

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Pickups & Streamers
Rookies & Call-Ups
News and Alerts

ROTOBALLER PLAYER NEWS

Bobby Miller33 mins ago

Carries On Scintillating Start
Josh Hader1 hour ago

Fires Perfect Ninth Inning
Brandon Belt2 hours ago

Exits Early On Saturday
Andrew Abbott2 hours ago

Extends Scoreless Streak
J.D. Davis2 hours ago

Back In The Lineup On Saturday
Carlos Correa2 hours ago

Hits Go-Ahead Grand Slam
Jarren Duran2 hours ago

Sitting Out On Saturday
Seiya Suzuki2 hours ago

Absent On Saturday
Josh Fleming3 hours ago

To Visit Specialist Next Week
Andrés Giménez4 hours ago

Andres Gimenez Absent On Saturday
Vinnie Pasquantino4 hours ago

Placed On Injured List
Anthony Rizzo4 hours ago

Out Of The Lineup On Saturday
Andrew Painter4 hours ago

To Throw Bullpen Session On Saturday
James Karinchak4 hours ago

Optioned To Minors
Damon Severson4 hours ago

Traded To Columbus
Adin Hill4 hours ago

Likely Between The Pipes In Game 4
Cedric Mullins6 hours ago

Has Resumed Baseball Activities
Garrett Cooper6 hours ago

Has Clean MRI On His Arm
Aaron Judge7 hours ago

Has Swelling Decrease In His Injured Toe
Tommy Hunter7 hours ago

Designated For Assignment
Vinnie Pasquantino7 hours ago

Lands On The Injured List
Ryan Mountcastle7 hours ago

Still Out Of The Lineup
Royce Lewis7 hours ago

Not In The Lineup On Saturday
Trey Lance8 hours ago

Spring Stats Weren't Very Impressive
C.J. Uzomah9 hours ago

Injured In Friday's Practice
Hunter Renfrow9 hours ago

Is Healthy
Las Vegas Raiders9 hours ago

Bilal Nichols Separating Himself This Offseason
Kyle Lowry9 hours ago

Posts 13 Points, Seven Assists In Friday's Loss
Aaron Rodgers9 hours ago

Takes Part In Friday's Practice
Ty Chandler9 hours ago

Looking At Increased Role
Bam Adebayo9 hours ago

Endures Another Rough Shooting Night
Seattle Seahawks9 hours ago

Mike Jackson Has Strong Minicamp
Jimmy Butler9 hours ago

Improves Efficiency In Game 4 Loss
DK Metcalf9 hours ago

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Impressing DK Metcalf
Bruce Brown9 hours ago

Comes Up Big In Fourth Quarter Friday
Jamal Murray9 hours ago

Continues Spectacular Playmaking In Finals
Nikola Jokic10 hours ago

Battles Through Ankle Sprain And Foul Trouble
Aaron Gordon10 hours ago

Scores Playoff Career-High 27 Points
Jared Goff23 hours ago

Has Complete Command Of Offense
Dalvin Cook1 day ago

Jets Would Consider Adding Dalvin Cook
Courtland Sutton1 day ago

Studying "Ways To Get Open"
DJ Moore1 day ago

"Developing Rapport" With Justin Fields
Dallas Cowboys1 day ago

Cowboys Part Ways With Takk McKinley
Los Angeles Chargers1 day ago

J.C. Jackson Doing Individual Drills
Dallas Mavericks1 day ago

Mavericks Have High Praise For Anthony Black After Workout
Atlanta Hawks1 day ago

GG Jackson, Julian Strawther Work Out With Hawks
Karl-Anthony Towns1 day ago

Executives Believe Karl-Anthony Towns Could Be Traded
Charlotte Hornets1 day ago

Ausar, Amen Thompson Work Out With The Hornets
Grant Williams1 day ago

Undergoes Successful Surgery On Hand
Jerami Grant1 day ago

Cameron Johnson On The Pistons' Offseason Radar
Chris Paul1 day ago

Spurs, Clippers, Lakers Are Possible Landing Spots For Chris Paul
Carter Verhaeghe1 day ago

Score Overtime Winner In Game 3
Matthew Tkachuk1 day ago

Scores Late Goal In Game 3 Victory
Damian Lillard1 day ago

Nets, Heat On Damian Lillard's Trade List
Milwaukee Bucks1 day ago

Joe Prunty, Patrick Mutombo Join Bucks Coaching Staff
Sergei Bobrovsky1 day ago

Has Bounce Back Performance In Game 3 Victory
Denver Nuggets1 day ago

Thunder, Nuggets Trade Various Picks
Charles Oliveira1 day ago

Returns To Action In Co-Main Event
Beneil Dariush1 day ago

Set For Huge Showdown
Adam Fugitt1 day ago

Looking For A Victory On Saturday
Mike Malott1 day ago

On The Hunt For Sixth Straight Victory Saturday
Brandon Montour1 day ago

Scores Opening Goal In Game 3 Victory
Jack Eichel1 day ago

Picks Up Assist In Game 3 Loss
Jonathan Marchessault1 day ago

Extends Scoring Streak In Game 3
Mark Stone1 day ago

Collects Two Points In Game 3 Loss
Sam LaPorta1 day ago

Jahmyr Gibbs, Sam LaPorta Have Been Impressive
DJ Chark Jr.1 day ago

Does Team Drills Thursday
Tua Tagovailoa1 day ago

Has Bulked Up This Offseason
Zach Charbonnet1 day ago

Could Have Big Role In Rookie Season
Seattle Seahawks1 day ago

Devon Witherspoon Sees Work In Slot
Justin Fields1 day ago

Bears Won't Make Justin Fields Robotic
Alexander Mattison1 day ago

Vikings Plan To Use Alexander Mattison As Starter
Irene Aldana1 day ago

Can Irene Aldana Challenge The Champion?
Amanda Nunes1 day ago

A Heavy Favorite Again
Sacramento Kings2 days ago

Dwight Howard Wants To Play For Kings
MarJon Beauchamp2 days ago

To Play In Summer League
Tyler Herro2 days ago

To Remain Out For Game 4
Jamal Murray2 days ago

Dealing With Minor Injury
Noah Gragson2 days ago

To Miss Sonoma With Concussion-Like Symptoms
Eryk Anders2 days ago

Set For Middleweight Showdown On Enemy Turf
Marc-Andre Barriault2 days ago

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Nate Landwehr2 days ago

Set For First UFC-Numbered Event
Dan Ige2 days ago

Looking To Start Another Streak At UFC 289
Jani Hakanpaa2 days ago

Will Have Offseason Knee Surgery
Adin Hill2 days ago

The Game 3 Starter For Vegas
Sergei Bobrovsky2 days ago

Named Panthers Game 3 Starter
Radko Gudas3 days ago

Expected To Play In Game 3
Andreas Athanasiou3 days ago

Signs Two-Year Extension With Blackhawks
Vladislav Gavrikov3 days ago

Kings Extend Vladislav Gavrikov For Two Years
Alex DeBrincat3 days ago

Senators Exploring Trade Options Involving Alex DeBrincat
Timo Meier3 days ago

Set To Begin Contract Talks With Devils This Week
Ivan Provorov3 days ago

Traded To Columbus
Adam Hadwin3 days ago

Looks To Bounce Back In Home Country
Matt Kuchar3 days ago

A Fade At RBC Canadian Open
PGA3 days ago

Matthew Fitzpatrick A Favorite In Canada
Dylan Wu3 days ago

Struggling To Find Form Heading To Oakdale
Doug Ghim3 days ago

Playing Well Heading To Oakdale
Robby Shelton3 days ago

Struggling With Consistency Heading To Oakdale
Eric Cole3 days ago

Making Debut At RBC Canadian Open
Brendon Todd3 days ago

To Play Through Shoulder Injury
Taylor Pendrith3 days ago

Making First Appearance At RBC Canadian Open Since 2015
Aaron Wise3 days ago

Returns To RBC Canadian Open
Alex Smalley3 days ago

Could Repeat Performance At RBC Canadian Open
Nick Taylor3 days ago

Hoping To Find Early Season Form Heading To Oakdale
Nicolai Hojgaard3 days ago

Looks To Bounce Back After Missed Cut Last Week
Keith Mitchell3 days ago

Looks To Continue Strong Play At Oakdale
Rory McIlroy3 days ago

To Defend Title At RBC Canadian Open
Cameron Champ3 days ago

Playing Better Into Canada
Will Gordon3 days ago

A Solid Sleeper In Canada
Corey Conners3 days ago

Looking To Rebound In Canada
Tyrrell Hatton3 days ago

An Elite Option At RBC Canadian Open
Cameron Young3 days ago

Will Struggle In Canada
PGA3 days ago

Approach Play Holding S.H. Kim Back
Jonathan Marchessault5 days ago

Scores Two Goals In Game 2 Victory
Adin Hill5 days ago

Makes 29 Saves In Game 2 Victory
Sergei Bobrovsky5 days ago

Pulled In Game 2 Of Stanley Cup Final
Amir Albazi5 days ago

Extends His Winning Streak
Daniel Pineda5 days ago

Unable To Earn A Victory Saturday
Jesse Butler5 days ago

Suffers Knockout Loss
Victor Altamirano5 days ago

Unable To Earn A Victory Saturday
Ketlen Souza5 days ago

Takes Submission Loss
Muhammad Naimov5 days ago

Shines With Second-Round TKO Win
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos5 days ago

Defeats Abubakar Nurmagomedov
Kevin Harvick5 days ago

Rounds Out The Top 10 At Gateway
Michael McDowell5 days ago

Scores Best Finish In Two Months
Carson Hocevar5 days ago

Strong Start Ends Early
Daniel Suarez5 days ago

Runs A Strong Race At Gateway
Ryan Blaney5 days ago

Building Momentum
Martin Truex Jr6 days ago

. Finishes Where He Began Sunday
Kyle Larson6 days ago

Eventually Moved Up To Fourth On Sunday
Joey Logano6 days ago

Finds Way To Third Place On Sunday
Denny Hamlin6 days ago

Takes Second Place At Gateway
Kyle Busch6 days ago

Wins At Gateway For Third Win Of Season
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF