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Thunder Dan's MLB Betting Picks for August 17: Pitcher Props, Totals, Money Line Bets

George Kirby - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Dan Palyo's top MLB betting picks and best bets for August 17th, 2022. His favorite MLB bettings picks for player props, money lines, run lines, and game totals.

I'm still grinding MLB bets every day and if you're here reading this right now, I assume that you are, too! Whether you like game totals, sides, or player props, I have something in here for you and try to cover a little bit of everything!

Last month, I started my own free sports betting newsletter, and the good people here at RotoBaller are allowing me to share my picks and data with you here in this space! You can access the free substack here and sign up for daily emails in addition to viewing the picks daily here on the RotoBaller website.

In this article, I'll be providing my MLB favorite betting picks on Wednesday, August 17th, 2022. The odds on these bets vary from book to book and are constantly changing. I primarily use FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks, but I would strongly encourage you to shop for the best odds at whatever books you use daily. I would also advise checking back later in the day as I may add bets depending on odds changing or specific props becoming available after I first post.

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MLB Betting Picks: Strikeout Projections

I do my own strikeout projections for just about every pitcher, every day. I use both season-long data and the most recent 14-day rolling samples from pitchers and opposing hitters when calculating these projections and I also include some other helpful stats here that I look at while making my picks, including pitchers' SwStr%, BB%, etc... These are median projections that are based on the average length of start for each pitcher, so if you think a pitcher is going to pitch deeper or less deep than usual, adjust accordingly.

(click to enlarge)

 

MLB Betting Picks: Pitcher Prop Bets

George Kirby o5.5K vs. LAA (-135 DK)

If it ain’t broke don’t fix it, right? Seattle starters have won us this prop the last two nights and Kirby should keep it rolling. He has six and eight strikeouts against the Halos already in two prior match-ups, too.

Max Scherzer o7.5K vs. ATL (-130)

Anytime we get Mad Max at 7.5, I am interested. Despite getting only six strikeouts last time out, I still have him projected over eight today against this K-prone Atlanta team. He’s gotten them for nine and 11 already this year and will be geared up for this one against the defending champs and division rivals.

Jordan Montgomery o17.5 outs vs. COL (+105)

Monty has looked great since coming to St. Louis, and as my buddy @TorresTakes would say, it seems like the Cardinals are working their “Devil Magic” yet again on another left-handed pitcher who seemed mediocre at best.

It’s not often you find plus odds on a decent pitcher to go six innings, and Monty is fresh off six beautiful innings against the Brew Crew.

Tyler Mahle to record a win (+135)

The Twins are -195 on the money line and blanked the Royals 9-0 last night. Mahle is coming off six solid shutout innings against the Angels and has tossed six innings in each start for Minnesota since coming over in the trade, getting the win in three of them.

 

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MLB Betting Picks: Sides and Totals

BAL +1.5 (-135 DK)

The Blue Jays simply can’t solve the Orioles this year, and after last night’s loss, they’re now 2-6 against Baltimore and have lost five straight.

Remember that Baltimore is the best team on the run line in the league this year. Austin Voth is pitching better, and Toronto is rolling with Ross Stripling coming off the IL. I’m going to keep riding the O’s.

TBR ML (+120 DK)

The Rays have won the first two games of this series, despite the Yankees having their top two pitchers going in those games. Now, the Rays have the advantage as they turn to veteran Corey Kluber to close out the sweep against the Yankees’ worst starter, Domingo German. New York’s bats are as cold as ice right now.

CHC -1.5 (+110 DK)

I’m not sure I should be this optimistic about a relatively bad Cubs team, but the Nationals are much worse. And what I am really targeting here is a major imbalance in pitching with the Cubs rolling out a red-hot Drew Smyly and the Nats have to go with Cory Abbott. Smyly has been terrific, throwing 11.2 shutout innings in his last two starts, while Abbott has surrendered 10 earned runs in his last two outings.

 

MLB Betting Picks: Betting Trends

I usually include this chart at least once a week in my newsletter, so that readers can see how every team has fared in specific situations this year. I like looking at trends, but I use them to support my data-driven picks, I don't rely on them by themselves.

(click to enlarge)

I hope you find my data and picks helpful and profitable! Thanks for checking out my picks and content here at RotoBaller!



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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Corey Heim

Does Not Qualify for Cup Race at Chicago Street Course
LaJohntay Wester

Stands out on Special Teams
Clarke Schmidt

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Starting on Saturday
Corbin Carroll

Activated from 10-Day Injured List
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Shemar Stewart, Bengals Continue Contract Talks, No Progress Made
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Potential Giannis Antetokounmpo Trade may not Happen Until "August, September"
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ARI

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NHL

Spencer Martin Moves to Russia
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Anthony Beauvillier Re-Signs With Capitals for Two Years
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Sitting Out With Foot Issue
Isaiah Neyor

Impresses at Minicamp
Houston Rockets

Jock Landale Waived by Rockets
Bo Bichette

Back in Blue Jays Lineup
Jonas Valančiūnas

Jonas Valanciunas Considering Returning to Europe
Miles Sanders

Works With Starters During Mandatory Minicamp
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Signs Two-Way Deal With Sixers
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Titans Could Move Chimere Dike Inside
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KeAndre Lambert-Smith not Guaranteed Roster Spot
Anthony Bradford

Working Hard to Win Back Starting Job
Byron Young

Still Improving?
Cody Simon

Jonathan Gannon has Been Impressed With Cody Simon
SirVocea Dennis

has Impressive Offseason
Trevor Penning

Could Still Have a Role in New Orleans
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Warriors Decline Recent Offer for Jonathan Kuminga
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Moritz Wagner, Magic Agree to One-Year Deal
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Placed on Injured List
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Jose Soriano Throws Gem Against Braves
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Earns Ninth Win in Complete Game
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Likely to Reset the Edge-Rush Market
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Jaxson Hayes Staying with the Lakers
NBA

Damian Lillard "Open" to Signing With a Team This Offseason
Max Muncy

Out at Least Six Weeks
Clarke Schmidt

Leaves Start with Forearm Tightness
Colson Montgomery

Promoted to the Major Leagues
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Omar Khan, Steelers Agree to Three-Year Contract
Max Muncy

Goes on Injured List With Knee Bruise
Max Muncy

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James Wood

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SJ

Sharks Claim Nick Leddy Off Waivers
Max Scherzer

Cleared to Start on Saturday
SJ

Sharks Sign Dmitry Orlov to Two-Year, $13 Million Contract
CAR

Nikolaj Ehlers Joins Hurricanes on Six-Year Contract
Kodai Senga

Could be "in Play" to Return Before All-Star Break
Ha-Seong Kim

Rays Reinstate Ha-Seong Kim From Injured List
Chau Smith-Wade

Having Stellar Offseason
Ace Bailey

Inks Rookie Contract With Jazz
Divine Deablo

Could be the Quarterback of the Defense
Isaiah Rodgers

a Likely Starter for the Vikings
Jacob Monk

Sees Plenty of Work With Starters
Avonte Maddox

has Impressed Dan Campbell
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Josh Minott Inks Deal With Celtics
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Ruben Hyppolite Shows Notable Improvement
Sandro Mamukelashvili

Heading to Toronto
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Commanders Coaches Impressed With Daron Payne
Danny Gray

Makes Impression During Offseason Workouts
Jared McCain

Not on 76ers Summer League Roster
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Unavailable for California Classic
COL

Brent Burns Inks One-Year Deal with Avalanche
STL

Blues Land Pius Suter on Two-Year Deal
Morgan Frost

Agrees to Two-Year Extension with Flames
WPG

Gustav Nyquist Moves to Winnipeg
Cody Glass

Devils Re-Sign Cody Glass to Two-Year Deal
PIT

Anthony Mantha Joins Penguins
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Larry Nance Jr. Headed Back to Cavaliers
Eric Gordon

Remaining with 76ers
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Deandre Ayton Joining Lakers
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Signs Two-Year Deal with Islanders
Simon Holmstrom

Re-Signs with Islanders for Two Years
UTA

Nate Schmidt Signs Three-Year Deal with Mammoth
UTA

Brandon Tanev Moves to Utah on Three-Year Contract
NJ

Evgenii Dadonov Joins Devils on One-Year Deal
BUF

Sabres Snap Up Alex Lyon on Two-Year Contract
Dallas Mavericks

Dante Exum Returning to Dallas
Ryan McLeod

Inks Four-Year Extension with Sabres
NAS

Predators Bring in Nick Perbix on Two-Year Deal
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Has Surgery to Repair a Turf Toe Injury
LA

Cody Ceci Moves to Los Angeles
Charlotte Hornets

Spencer Dinwiddie Lands With Charlotte
Bud Cauley

in Great Form Ahead of John Deere Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

a Player to Avoid at John Deere Classic
Jake Knapp

Riding Momentum Ahead of John Deere Classic
PGA

Sungjae Im Looking for Consistency at John Deere Classic
Ryan Gerard

a Solid Option at John Deere Classic
Rickie Fowler

Looking to Rebound at John Deere Classic
Cameron Champ

a Volatile Option at John Deere Classic
Jackson Suber

Staying Below 70 is Key to Success for Jackson Suber
Kevin Roy

Playing Better Heading into John Deere Classic
Justin Lower

Hoping for Something Positive in Illinois
Ben Kohles

a Long Shot at John Deere Classic
Stephan Jaeger

Attempts to Stop Roller-Coaster Ride
Beau Hossler

Needs a Challenge in Illinois
Harry Higgs

Has Potential at John Deere Classic
Nick Dunlap

Keeps Plugging Through Tough 2025 Season
Milwaukee Bucks

Taurean Prince Staying in Milwaukee
Kevin Yu

a Near Must-Play at TPC Deere Run
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J.T. Poston Returns to John Deere Classic Looking for Another High Finish
Thriston Lawrence

a Decent Fit For John Deere Classic
Tom Kim

Not Finding Much to be Happy About Ahead of John Deere Classic
Si Woo Kim

is a Prohibitive Fade at John Deere Classic
Ben Griffin

is the Appropriate Favorite at TPC Deere Run
Daniel Suarez

and Trackhouse Racing Parting Ways After 2025 Season
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Charles Oliveira

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Kai Kara-France

Alexandre Pantoja Submits Kai Kara-France
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Competitive Run Ends With Third-Place Finish at Atlanta
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Secures A Top-Five Finish After Adversity In Atlanta
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Collects A New Career-Best Finish At Atlanta
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