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Thunder Dan's MLB Betting Picks for August 16: Pitcher Props, Totals, Money Line Bets

Robbie Ray - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Injury News, Draft Sleepers

I'm still grinding MLB bets every day and if you're here reading this right now, I assume that you are, too! Whether you like game totals, sides, or player props, I have something in here for you and try to cover a little bit of everything!

Last month, I started my own free sports betting newsletter, and the good people here at RotoBaller are allowing me to share my picks and data with you here in this space! You can access the free substack here and sign up for daily emails in addition to viewing the picks daily here on the RotoBaller website.

In this article, I'll be providing my MLB favorite betting picks on Tuesday, August 16th, 2022. The odds on these bets vary from book to book and are constantly changing. I primarily use FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks, but I would strongly encourage you to shop for the best odds at whatever books you use daily. I would also advise checking back later in the day as I may add bets depending on odds changing or specific props becoming available after I first post.

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MLB Betting Picks: Strikeout Projections

I do my own strikeout projections for just about every pitcher, every day. I use both season-long data and the most recent 14-day rolling samples from pitchers and opposing hitters when calculating these projections and I also include some other helpful stats here that I look at while making my picks, including pitchers' SwStr%, BB%, etc... These are median projections that are based on the average length of start for each pitcher, so if you think a pitcher is going to pitch deeper or less deep than usual, adjust accordingly.

(click to enlarge)

 

MLB Betting Picks: Pitcher Prop Bets

Sean Manaea o5.5K vs. MIA (-115 DK)

Manaea is the dude who has tortured us before, but there is no avoiding this spot today as you can see I have him projected well over his total as Miami has been terrible against lefties this season and even worse in the most recent sample.

Zach Plesac o5.5K vs. DET (-120)

I hate relying on a guy with a sub-20% K rate to do anything, but this situation with the Tigers is getting silly. They’re up over 34% now in the most recent L14 sample and we saw Civale get 10 last night. Plesac just faced them and had 7 in 6+ innings. They’re simply so bad right now, that any half-decent pitcher stands a solid chance of whiffing 6 or more if they can last 5-6 innings.

Edward Cabrera o4.5K vs. SDP (-115)

The Miami youngster has now looked sharp in two straight starts since coming off the IL, piling up 8 and 6 strikeouts against the Cubs and Phillies, respectively. The Padres will be a tougher match-up, but there’s no reason to think a pitcher of his caliber can’t get five here. He’s good, and we won’t see another 4.5 on him this season.

Jeffrey Springs o4.5K vs. NYY (-125)

I thought we wouldn’t see another 4.5 on Springs this year either, but the haters are back! Springs is VERY GOOD and still isn’t getting enough respect, clearly, despite having 5+ in all but one start (remember he transitioned from the bullpen back in May) this season. He got six Yankees in six innings the first time he saw them.

Robbie Ray o7.5K vs. LAA (-135)

Robbie has 10 strikeouts against the Angels twice already this season. He’s in good form, and the Angels continue to be a team that we can target. I’m not overthinking this one, even if the projection is close.

Nestor Cortes o6.5K vs. TBR (+120)

Here is the “swing for the fences” play today. The Yankees’ crafty lefty has seen the Rays three times already and the match-up history does not bode well for him as he only got 5, 4, and 3 strikeouts in those starts.

But here’s the angle. Tampa’s lineup looks quite a bit different these days, and their projected lineup has 3-4 hitters with massive strikeout rates to lefties in it. The recent TB trend has them whiffing almost 35% of the time against LHP. Cortes just had a 10-strikeout game, and I think he has a big outing coming this time. I love the odds here, since the other props we are targeting all favor the book.

 

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MLB Betting Picks: Hitter Props

Matt Chapman o.5 TB (-155)

Paul DeJong o.5 TB (-155)

Parlay = +170

I had Chapman’s match-up with Dean Kremer circled from the last time I had recommended him and then he got rained out. The pitch profile for Chap is perfect, but they lowered his prop to just one base. So I am pairing him with DeJong, who was 2-3 off Rockies’ starter, Kyle Freeland, last week and has been hitting the ball well since he returned from injury.

Joey Meneses o1.5 TB (+145)

The books haven’t caught up yet on the Washington rookie, who already has five home runs and is hitting .385 in his first week two weeks in the majors. He has 2+ TB in six of his last seven and took Cubs’ pitcher Justin Steele deep the last time he saw them.

 

MLB Betting Picks: Sides and Totals

COL/STL over 7.5 runs (-110 DK)

These two teams combined for 14 runs with these two exact pitchers going against each other last week in Coors. Now, I understand that Busch Stadium is much, much more pitcher-friendly, but both of these lineups can hit LHP. This total just seems really low, and my model has it closer to 9 runs.

CLE -1.5 (+100 DK)

I am riding this Cleveland hot streak. I know they dropped the second game of the doubleheader yesterday, but this team is just finding ways to win right now and should have a pretty sizable advantage in the starting pitching matchup as Garrett Hill and his 5+ xFIP goes against Plesac.

 

MLB Betting Picks: Betting Trends

I usually include this chart at least once a week in my newsletter, so that readers can see how every team has fared in specific situations this year. I like looking at trends, but I use them to support my data-driven picks, I don't rely on them by themselves.

(click to enlarge)

I hope you find my data and picks helpful and profitable! Thanks for checking out my picks and content here at RotoBaller!



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ROTOBALLER PLAYER NEWS

Lou Trivino5 hours ago

Earns Five-Out Save Tuesday
Corey Seager5 hours ago

Exits Early Tuesday With Left Arm Bruise
Zack Greinke5 hours ago

Throws Seven Shutout Frames
Ronald Acuña Jr.5 hours ago

Ronald Acuna Jr. Hits Two Homers
Adrian Houser5 hours ago

Headed To Injured List
George Springer5 hours ago

Hits Leadoff Blast
Gleyber Torres5 hours ago

Drives In Three
Ramón Urías5 hours ago

Ramon Urias Exits Tuesday With Right Knee Discomfort
Jameson Taillon5 hours ago

Pitches Into Eighth In Clincher
Tony Gonsolin5 hours ago

Throws 27 Pitches In Tuesday Rehab Start
Garrett Cooper6 hours ago

Fractures Left Pinkie Tuesday
Kyle Bradish6 hours ago

Ineffective Tuesday
Yordan Alvarez6 hours ago

Exits Tuesday With Left Ankle Discomfort
Triston Casas6 hours ago

Homers, Reaches Four Times
Ramón Urías6 hours ago

Ramon Urias Comes Double Shy Of Cycle
Anthony Santander6 hours ago

Stays Red Hot
Dylan Floro6 hours ago

Strikes Out Side In Save
Pablo López6 hours ago

Pablo Lopez Earns 10th Win
JJ Bleday6 hours ago

Hits Homer Tuesday
Pete Alonso6 hours ago

Reaches 40 Homers
Carlos Carrasco6 hours ago

Roughed Up Tuesday
Calvin Petersen11 hours ago

Considered Day-To-Day
Cleveland Browns11 hours ago

Myles Garrett Uncertain For Week 4
Jeff Carter11 hours ago

Listed As Day-To-Day
Ilya Mikheyev11 hours ago

Week-To-Week With A Lower-Body Injury
Spencer Knight12 hours ago

Gets Three-Year Extension From Florida
John Tavares12 hours ago

Out For At Least Three Weeks
Brock Boeser12 hours ago

Out For Three To Four Weeks
Tua Tagovailoa16 hours ago

"Will Do Everything He Can" To Play Thursday
Sterling Shepard17 hours ago

Has A Torn ACL
Amon-Ra St. Brown18 hours ago

Doesn't Have Long-Term Injury
Dak Prescott18 hours ago

Targeting Week 5 Return?
Sterling Shepard18 hours ago

Likely Done For The Season
Sterling Shepard1 day ago

Gets Carted Off On Final Play
Jamal Murray1 day ago

Feels Back To Normal
Kawhi Leonard1 day ago

To Participate In Training Camp
Ivica Zubac1 day ago

Should Be Ready For Training Camp
Zion Williamson1 day ago

Feels Great Heading Into Training Camp
Ben Simmons1 day ago

Cleared For Practice
Marquese Chriss1 day ago

Not Ready For Training Camp
Dak Prescott1 day ago

Not Ruling Out A Return In Week 4
P.J. Tucker1 day ago

Fully Active For Training Camp
Zach LaVine1 day ago

Should Have No Restrictions
San Francisco 49ers1 day ago

Trent Williams Could Miss 4-6 Weeks
Cleveland Browns1 day ago

Myles Garrett Involved In Car Accident Monday
Los Angeles Chargers1 day ago

Joey Bosa Dealing With Significant Groin Injury
Mac Jones1 day ago

Expected To Miss Multiple Games
Julio Jones1 day ago

Bucs Expect Julio Jones To Return In Week 4
Jaylen Waddle1 day ago

Listed As DNP Monday
Keenan Allen1 day ago

Should Return To Practice This Week
Michael Gallup1 day ago

Dalton Schultz, Michael Gallup Inactive Monday Night
Tua Tagovailoa2 days ago

Not In Concussion Protocol
Joe Mixon2 days ago

Good To Go For Week 4
D'Andre Swift2 days ago

Out Until After The Bye?
Dalvin Cook2 days ago

Considered Day-To-Day
Rachaad White2 days ago

Ke'Shawn Vaughn Could See More Work
Dean Wade3 days ago

Agrees To Three-Year Contract Extension
Markelle Fultz3 days ago

Fractures Toe
Keldon Johnson3 days ago

Expects To Be Ready For Regular Season
Chase Briscoe3 days ago

Begins Texas Near The Rear
Christopher Bell3 days ago

To The Middle Again For Texas
Alex Bowman3 days ago

Under The Radar A Bit Sunday
Ryan Blaney3 days ago

Back On Bubble As Texas Looms
Ross Chastain3 days ago

Has To Feel Fortunate For Texas
Austin Cindric3 days ago

On The Bubble To Start Segment Two
Daniel Suarez3 days ago

Familiar With Texas Success
Kyle Larson3 days ago

Starts Ninth From Texas On Sunday
Denny Hamlin3 days ago

Loves Intermediate Tracks Like Texas
Austin Dillon3 days ago

Another Chevy Qualifying Strong
Chase Elliott3 days ago

In Solid Spot At Texas
Michael McDowell3 days ago

Not A Surprise At Texas
Tyler Reddick3 days ago

Pushes Hard To Start Fourth Sunday
William Byron3 days ago

Starts Third For Texas Race
Joey Logano3 days ago

Nearly Takes Pole At Texas
Brad Keselowski3 days ago

Snares Pole At Texas
CJ McCollum4 days ago

C.J. McCollum Signs Extension With Pelicans
Indiana Pacers4 days ago

Langston Galloway Joins Pacers
Indiana Pacers4 days ago

Norvel Pelle, Justin Anderson Get Training Camp Deals
Golden State Warriors4 days ago

Andre Iguodala Returns To Warriors
Nick Richards4 days ago

Has Impressed Hornets
Jalen Johnson4 days ago

To Get More Minutes
Bogdan Bogdanovic4 days ago

Won't Be Fully Ready For Training Camp
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander4 days ago

Could Miss Season Opener
Luguentz Dort4 days ago

Should Be Ready For Training Camp
Patrick Kane5 days ago

Keen To Remain In Chicago
Nicklas Backstrom5 days ago

Believes He Can Play This Season
Nolan Patrick6 days ago

To Miss The Entire 2022-23 Season
Jake Muzzin6 days ago

Misses Start Of Training Camp
Nick Suzuki6 days ago

Out Of Action For A Couple Of Weeks
Gabriel Landeskog6 days ago

Will Miss The Start Of The Season
Kawhi Leonard6 days ago

Will Be Eased Into Action To Begin 2022-23
Andrew Copp6 days ago

Misses Training Camp
Timothy Liljegren6 days ago

Out For At Least Six Weeks
Jason Robertson7 days ago

Misses Start Of Training Camp
Barrett Hayton7 days ago

Inks Two-Year Deal With Coyotes
Mike Smith7 days ago

Fails Physical, Heading To Long-Term Injured Reserve
Nils Lundkvist1 week ago

Traded To Stars
J.T. Miller1 week ago

Signs Long-Term In Vancouver
Tim Stützle1 week ago

Tim Stutzle Staying With Ottawa Long-Term
Kirby Dach1 week ago

And Canadiens Sign Extension
Andre Fili1 week ago

Takes Split Decision In A Very Close Contest
MMA1 week ago

Song Yadong Falls Short In Main Event Due To Massive Cut
Cory Sandhagen1 week ago

Scores Impressive TKO Win
Chidi Njokuani1 week ago

Suffers TKO Loss Saturday
Gregory Rodrigues1 week ago

Earns TKO Victory On Saturday
Bill Algeo1 week ago

Suffers Close Split-Decision Loss
Alen Amedovski1 week ago

Drops Fourth Straight Fight
Joe Pyfer1 week ago

Impresses In UFC Debut With KO/TKO Win
Tanner Boser1 week ago

Drops A Split Decision Saturday
Rodrigo Nascimento1 week ago

Ferreira Secures Close Victory
Marc-Andre Barriault1 week ago

Takes Submission Loss
Anthony Hernandez1 week ago

Earns Another Submission Finish
Chase Elliott2 weeks ago

Has Subpar Qualifying Effort Friday
Kyle Busch2 weeks ago

On The Outside Looking In At Bristol
Tyler Reddick2 weeks ago

Under Heavy Stress At Bristol
William Byron2 weeks ago

On Cruise Control For Bristol
Joey Logano2 weeks ago

Begins 15th At Bristol Motor Speedway
MMA2 weeks ago

Cory Sandhagen In Need Of A Rebound Win
MMA2 weeks ago

Song Yadong Looking For Fourth Straight Win
MMA2 weeks ago

Gregory Rodrigues Set For Saturday's Co-Main Event
MMA2 weeks ago

Chidi Njokuani Looking To Continue Middleweight Run
Bill Algeo2 weeks ago

Looking For Third Straight Victory
Andre Fili2 weeks ago

In Need Of A Win Saturday In Vegas
MMA2 weeks ago

Joe Pyfer Enters As DraftKings' Biggest Favorite Saturday
Alen Amedovski2 weeks ago

Looking To Climb Out Of Recent Hole
Rodrigo Nascimento2 weeks ago

Ferreira Looking For First Win In Two Years

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