X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


LINEUP RESOURCES

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Pickups & Streamers
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Thunder Dan's MLB Betting Picks for August 11: Pitcher Props, Totals, Money Line Bets

A short slate of games won't stop us from wagering on them! Whether you like game totals, sides, or player props, I have something in here for you and try to cover a little bit of everything!

Last month, I started my own free sports betting newsletter, and the good people here at RotoBaller are allowing me to share my picks and data with you here in this space! You can access the free substack here and sign up for daily emails in addition to viewing the picks daily here on the RotoBaller website.

In this article, I'll be providing my MLB favorite betting picks on Thursday, August 11th, 2022. The odds on these bets vary from book to book and are constantly changing. I primarily use FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks, but I would strongly encourage you to shop for the best odds at whatever books you use daily. I would also advise checking back later in the day as I may add bets depending on odds changing or specific props becoming available after I first post.

Featured Promo: Want a free RotoBaller Premium Pass? Check out these sports betting promo offers from the top sportsbooks! All new sign-ups get a free bonus offer on their first deposit, and a free year of RotoBaller's Premium Pass for all sports ($450 value)! Sign Up Now!

 

MLB Betting Picks: Strikeout Projections

I do my own strikeout projections for just about every pitcher, every day. I use both season-long data and the most recent 14-day rolling samples from pitchers and opposing hitters when calculating these projections and I also include some other helpful stats here that I look at while making my picks, including pitchers' SwStr%, BB%, etc... These are median projections that are based on the average length of start for each pitcher, so if you think a pitcher is going to pitch deeper or less deep than usual, adjust accordingly.

(click to enlarge)

 

MLB Betting Picks: Pitcher Prop Bets

Dylan Cease o7.5K vs. KCR (+100 DK)

This is the smash play of the two K props. Cease has seen a slight dip in his K production lately, but this match-up with KC is juicy as they don’t walk much and their K rate has been steadily climbing since going with the full youth movement in their lineup. This won’t be at plus odds for long.

Nick Lodolo o7.5K vs. CHC (+120 DK)

This is a reach and I know it. And I still can’t help myself. Lodolo is supremely talented and I am a sucker for these really big strikeout pitchers in good spots, even when they are flawed. Lodolo’s walk numbers are troubling, but he’s punched out 8+ hitters already three times this season, and he’s got 7 two other times.

The Cubs are very K prone and their recent sample of data vs. lefties made me bump up this projection a bit more. They can struggle against the curveball and Lodolo’s is special with a 20% SwStr% on that pitch. He’s going to be amped up pitching in the special “Field of Dreams game” tonight, too. It’s risky, but I’m taking a shot here at these odds.

Framber Valdez to record a win (-110 DK)

The Astros are a crazy -305 ML today, something I don’t mess around with. And I couldn’t get myself to go over 6.5 on the strikeouts for Valdez either. But this is a good spot for him, with Texas struggling against LHP and rolling out a rookie left-hander of their own. Valdez pitches deep into games, giving him more of an opportunity to leave with the lead, and be eligible for the win.

Merrill Kelly o18.5 outs (-145) + Edward Cabrera o14.5 outs (-160) = Parlay (+174)

Kelly has been on an incredible tear lately, allowing two runs or fewer in 7 straight starts. He’s pitched 7 or more innings in five of those starts, and I like his chances of getting into the 7th here against the light-hitting Bucs.

Cabrera has made only one start since coming back from an injury that cost him nearly two months. He threw 78 pitches and got through five clean innings against the Cubs. While the Phillies are a tougher draw, I think he should likely have a longer leash here with the pitch count and we just need him to finish the fifth.

 

Sports Betting Promo Offers

All new sign-ups also get a free year of RotoBaller's all sports Premium Pass ($450 value)!

Sportsbook Bonus Offer Promo
Caesars Risk-Free First Bet Up To $1,500 CLAIM OFFER
PointsBet 2 Risk-Free Bets Up To $2,000 CLAIM OFFER
BetMGM Risk-Free First Bet Up To $1,000 CLAIM OFFER
FanDuel Risk-Free First Bet Up To $1,000 CLAIM OFFER
DraftKings Deposit Bonus Booster Up To $1,000 CLAIM OFFER
 



 

Featured Promo

Offer is only valid for new users

All new sportsbook sign-ups get a free year of RotoBaller Premium access ($450 value)!

1. Just sign up for a new account
2. Make a minimum deposit of $20 and place any bet
3. Be sure to claim your bonus offer from the sportsbook
4. Email us at [email protected] with your new account details
5. Boom - that's it! We'll email you with your year-long RotoBaller Premium Pass

CLAIM NOW!

 


MLB Betting Picks: Sides and Totals

BAL ML (+115 DK)

The Orioles are 23-8 over the last 5 weeks, did you know that? I’m really not sure what else they need to do to get some respect, but this is not a bad team. In fact, I think they’re better than Boston at this point in the season and it’s not all that close. Kremer has been better than Winckowski and the Orioles have the edge in the bullpen, too. Give me the underdogs and let’s ride!

MIA/PHI under 8.5 runs (-120)

Cabrera looked great in his return and Kyle Gibson has been consistently solid for Philly most of the year. Cabrera is the better pitcher and is the guy we really need to come through here as Philly’s offense has been solid of late. Miami’s bats have been cold and Gibson pitched well against them as recently as last month.

 

MLB Betting Picks: Betting Trends

I usually include this chart at least once a week in my newsletter, so that readers can see how every team has fared in specific situations this year. I like looking at trends, but I use them to support my data-driven picks, I don't rely on them by themselves.

(click to enlarge)

I hope you find my data and picks helpful and profitable! Thanks for checking out my picks and content here at RotoBaller!



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Analysis




LINEUP RESOURCES

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Pickups & Streamers
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

ROTOBALLER PLAYER NEWS

Shohei Ohtani1 hour ago

Flirts With No-No
Jonathan Taylor3 hours ago

Good To Go Against Titans
Jerami Grant3 hours ago

Has Impressed Blazers
Mackenzie Dern3 hours ago

Set For Main-Event Showdown Saturday
Will Barton3 hours ago

Misses First Preseason Game
Paul Reed3 hours ago

Is Becoming More Versatile
Francisco Trinaldo3 hours ago

Set For Co-Main Event
Randy Brown3 hours ago

Facing Dangerous Veteran On Saturday
Luke Kornet4 hours ago

Likely To Miss Two Weeks
Trevin Jones4 hours ago

Hoping To Get Back On Track
Daniel Santos4 hours ago

Can Turn Around His UFC Fortunes
Max Fried4 hours ago

Leaves Friday's Start With Illness
Isaiah Roby4 hours ago

Has Impressed Spurs
Charlie Blackmon4 hours ago

Plans To Pick Up 2023 Player Option
Spencer Strider4 hours ago

Not Throwing Yet
Ketel Marte4 hours ago

Placed On Injured List Friday
Zack Britton4 hours ago

Leaves Friday’s Game With Injury
Las Vegas Raiders4 hours ago

Hunter Renfrow To Miss Second Straight Game
Dallas Cowboys4 hours ago

Michael Gallup Cleared To Make Season Debut
Corey Seager6 hours ago

Back In Rangers Lineup Friday
Charlie Morton6 hours ago

Agrees To Contract Extension With Braves
Theo Maledon6 hours ago

On The Move To Houston
MLB6 hours ago

Game 2 Of Phillies-Nationals Doubleheader Postponed Friday
New England Patriots6 hours ago

Mac Jones Ruled Out This Weekend
Raoni Barcelos6 hours ago

In Need Of A Win To Snap Losing Streak
Ty Jerome6 hours ago

Traded To Houston, Expected To Be Waived
Jesús Sánchez6 hours ago

Jesus Sanchez Returns To Marlins Lineup
José Urquidy6 hours ago

Jose Urquidy Probably Won't Start Again This Season
Keenan Allen7 hours ago

To Miss His Third Straight Game
Derrick Favors7 hours ago

Traded To The Rockets
Simeon Woods Richardson7 hours ago

Likely To Pitch For Twins This Season
Boston Celtics7 hours ago

Celtics Sign Blake Griffin To One-Year Deal
Josh Bell7 hours ago

In Lineup Friday
D'Andre Swift7 hours ago

Officially Ruled Out For Week 4
Nelson Cruz7 hours ago

Still Out In Game 2 Friday
J.T. Realmuto7 hours ago

Taking A Seat In Game 2 Of Doubleheader
Lance McCullers Jr.8 hours ago

Eyeing A Return On Monday
Yandy Díaz8 hours ago

Yandy Diaz Hitting Leadoff On Friday
Yordan Alvarez8 hours ago

Returns To Lineup Friday
Don Shainis8 hours ago

Making UFC Debut On Main Card
Francisco Alvarez8 hours ago

Making MLB Debut Against Braves
Sodiq Yusuff8 hours ago

Looking For Second Win Of 2022
Matt Carpenter8 hours ago

Has A Chance To Play Next Week
DJ LeMahieu8 hours ago

Starting At Third Base Friday
John Castaneda9 hours ago

Hoping To Remain Strong Inside The Octagon
Viacheslav Borshchev9 hours ago

Hoping For A Rebound Performance Saturday
Mike Davis9 hours ago

Returns To Action To Open Up The Main Card
David Montgomery10 hours ago

Ruled Out Against Giants
Marquise Brown10 hours ago

Rondale Moore Questionable For Week 4
Gabe Davis11 hours ago

Says He's Playing Sunday
New England Patriots11 hours ago

Mac Jones Questionable, Brian Hoyer Likely To Start Week 4
Cleveland Browns12 hours ago

Myles Garrett, Jadeveon Clowney Questionable For Week 4
Julio Jones12 hours ago

Chris Godwin, Julio Jones To Be Game-Time Decisions
Detroit Lions12 hours ago

DJ Chark Good To Go
Gabe Davis13 hours ago

Aggravates Ankle, Still Expected To Play
Jarvis Landry13 hours ago

Questionable For Week 4
New Orleans Saints13 hours ago

Alvin Kamara Given Another Questionable Tag
Dalvin Cook13 hours ago

Good To Go For Week 4
Christian McCaffrey13 hours ago

Listed As Questionable
Detroit Lions13 hours ago

Amon-Ra St. Brown Ruled Out For Week 4
D'Andre Swift14 hours ago

Likely Out For Week 4
Christian McCaffrey15 hours ago

Spotted At Friday's Practice
1 day ago

Sean Couturier Avoids Surgery, Considered Week-To-Week
1 day ago

Scott Perunovich Remains Under Evaluation
1 day ago

Nico Hischier Set To Be Re-Evaluated In 10 Days
1 day ago

Rasmus Sandin Ends Contract Standoff With Maple Leafs
1 day ago

Trevor Zegras Exits Preseason Game With Injury
1 day ago

Jordie Benn, Carl Dahlstrom Join Toronto's Growing Injury List
3 days ago

Calvin Petersen Considered Day-To-Day
3 days ago

Jeff Carter Listed As Day-To-Day
3 days ago

Ilya Mikheyev Week-To-Week With A Lower-Body Injury
3 days ago

Spencer Knight Gets Three-Year Extension From Florida
3 days ago

John Tavares Out For At Least Three Weeks
3 days ago

Brock Boeser Out For Three To Four Weeks
Jamal Murray4 days ago

Feels Back To Normal
Kawhi Leonard4 days ago

To Participate In Training Camp
Ivica Zubac4 days ago

Should Be Ready For Training Camp
Zion Williamson4 days ago

Feels Great Heading Into Training Camp
Ben Simmons4 days ago

Cleared For Practice
Marquese Chriss4 days ago

Not Ready For Training Camp
P.J. Tucker4 days ago

Fully Active For Training Camp
Zach LaVine4 days ago

Should Have No Restrictions
Dean Wade5 days ago

Agrees To Three-Year Contract Extension
Markelle Fultz5 days ago

Fractures Toe
Keldon Johnson5 days ago

Expects To Be Ready For Regular Season
Chase Briscoe6 days ago

Begins Texas Near The Rear
Christopher Bell6 days ago

To The Middle Again For Texas
Alex Bowman6 days ago

Under The Radar A Bit Sunday
Ryan Blaney6 days ago

Back On Bubble As Texas Looms
Ross Chastain6 days ago

Has To Feel Fortunate For Texas
Austin Cindric6 days ago

On The Bubble To Start Segment Two
Daniel Suarez6 days ago

Familiar With Texas Success
Kyle Larson6 days ago

Starts Ninth From Texas On Sunday
Denny Hamlin6 days ago

Loves Intermediate Tracks Like Texas
Austin Dillon6 days ago

Another Chevy Qualifying Strong
Chase Elliott6 days ago

In Solid Spot At Texas
Michael McDowell6 days ago

Not A Surprise At Texas
Tyler Reddick6 days ago

Pushes Hard To Start Fourth Sunday
William Byron6 days ago

Starts Third For Texas Race
Joey Logano6 days ago

Nearly Takes Pole At Texas
Brad Keselowski6 days ago

Snares Pole At Texas
CJ McCollum6 days ago

C.J. McCollum Signs Extension With Pelicans
1 week ago

Patrick Kane Keen To Remain In Chicago
1 week ago

Nicklas Backstrom Believes He Can Play This Season
1 week ago

Nolan Patrick To Miss The Entire 2022-23 Season
1 week ago

Jake Muzzin Misses Start Of Training Camp
1 week ago

Nick Suzuki Out Of Action For A Couple Of Weeks
1 week ago

Gabriel Landeskog Will Miss The Start Of The Season
1 week ago

Andrew Copp Misses Training Camp
1 week ago

Timothy Liljegren Out For At Least Six Weeks
1 week ago

Jason Robertson Misses Start Of Training Camp
Andre Fili2 weeks ago

Takes Split Decision In A Very Close Contest
MMA2 weeks ago

Song Yadong Falls Short In Main Event Due To Massive Cut
Cory Sandhagen2 weeks ago

Scores Impressive TKO Win
Chidi Njokuani2 weeks ago

Suffers TKO Loss Saturday
Gregory Rodrigues2 weeks ago

Earns TKO Victory On Saturday
Bill Algeo2 weeks ago

Suffers Close Split-Decision Loss
Alen Amedovski2 weeks ago

Drops Fourth Straight Fight
Joe Pyfer2 weeks ago

Impresses In UFC Debut With KO/TKO Win
Tanner Boser2 weeks ago

Drops A Split Decision Saturday
Rodrigo Nascimento2 weeks ago

Ferreira Secures Close Victory
Chase Elliott2 weeks ago

Has Subpar Qualifying Effort Friday
Kyle Busch2 weeks ago

On The Outside Looking In At Bristol
Tyler Reddick2 weeks ago

Under Heavy Stress At Bristol
William Byron2 weeks ago

On Cruise Control For Bristol
Joey Logano2 weeks ago

Begins 15th At Bristol Motor Speedway

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
Alexis Diaz fantasy baseball closers rankings draft sleepers waiver wire pickups

MLB Closers and Saves: Fantasy Baseball Depth Charts

Saves are an important component for many fantasy baseball leagues. Closers are one of the most volatile positions in fantasy baseball, and one of the highest turnover positions in MLB. Each year, closers drop like flies and many MLB teams make in-season changes due to injuries or poor performance. In addition to closers and saves, relief... Read More


Craig Kimbrel - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Closers and Saves

Closers and Saves Waiver Wire Report for Fantasy Baseball - Week 25

Well, here we are folks. For most fantasy leagues, this is it. This is the last week that counts, the wrap up week in roto leagues and the championship matchup in head-to-head leagues. This is everything you've been working for all season and I am so proud of you. Oh, me? Yeah, I had either... Read More


Corbin Burnes - fantasy baseball rankings draft sleepers mlb injury news

Starts & Sits for MLB Week 25 - All Starting Pitcher Matchups for Fantasy Baseball

We made it to the end. Week 25 is the final 10 days of the season. I am pleased to bring you this chart one more time, and I appreciate all the readership and the feedback (good and bad). I have given a score to 4,860 probable starters this year (with some help from automation).... Read More


Free MLB Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (9/30/22)

Happy Friday, RotoBallers, we're back for another weekend of MLB betting picks! Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been... Read More


bo bichette fantasy baseball rankings draft sleepers shortstops MLB injury news dfs picks

DraftKings, FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks (9/30/22): Today's Top MLB DFS Lineups

The MLB regular season is winding down but there are still a few wild card spots up for grabs with the Brewers and Phillies battling it out for the last spot remaining in the NL. We have a slate with a ton of aces on the mound tonight, and it will likely be the last... Read More


MLB injuries fantasy baseball injury news updates stock

Daily MLB Injury Roundup for September 30th, 2022

RotoBaller has assembled a list of daily MLB injury updates to help you prepare both your seasonal and daily fantasy baseball (DFS) lineups, every day of the MLB season. Below is our updated list of injured MLB players for September 30th, 2022. Only players on teams that are scheduled to play today will appear below... Read More


Shohei Ohtani - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Injury News

Free MLB Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (9/29/22)

Happy Thursday, RotoBallers, we're back for another day of MLB betting picks! Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been... Read More


rafael devers fantasy baseball rankings draft sleepers MLB injury news DFS lineup picks

DraftKings, FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks (9/29/22): MLB DFS Lineups

Happy Thursday RotoBallers! This is John Brubaker dropping some of my favorite plays for today's slate. After a bit of a bigger slate last week relative to the weeks before, we're back to a smaller slate this afternoon, with a four-game slate on DraftKings and FanDuel.  We don't have any slate differences though, which is... Read More


Fantasy Baseball Trade Targets - Buy/Sell For Week 25

Making the right trades can be crucial to championship success in fantasy baseball, almost as much as the draft, if not more. While most trades can have a significant impact on your fantasy team, it’s the deals where you acquire undervalued players and then see their production improve that can really tip the scales in... Read More


Jose Berrios - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Injury News

MLB Pitcher Advanced Metrics Studs and Duds - Season Recap

Welcome back to fantasy baseball and RotoBaller’s Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds article series! Each week, I have selected one advanced metric, chosen two pitchers with strong values and two with poor values, and analyzed what those values may mean for future performance. Sadly, we have come to the end of another fantasy baseball season... Read More


MLB injuries fantasy baseball injury news updates stock

Daily MLB Injury Roundup for September 29th, 2022

RotoBaller has assembled a list of daily MLB injury updates to help you prepare both your seasonal and daily fantasy baseball (DFS) lineups, every day of the MLB season. Below is our updated list of injured MLB players for September 29th, 2022. Only players on teams that are scheduled to play today will appear below... Read More


Aaron Judge - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Injury News

Projecting the Top 101 ADP for the 2023 Fantasy Baseball Season

Although the end of the 2022 season is nearly upon us, it's never too early to begin off-season prep for the 2023 season. This article provides an early look at the redraft field in 2023, projecting the top 101 by ADP. We'll have you covered all offseason long as soon as the final pitch of... Read More


justin verlander fantasy baseball rankings pitchers draft sleepers MLB injury news

Free MLB Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (9/28/22)

Happy Wednesday, RotoBallers, we're back for another day of MLB betting picks! Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been... Read More