Thunder Dan's MLB Betting Picks for August 11: Pitcher Props, Totals, Money Line Bets

August 11, 2022

Dan Palyo's top MLB betting picks and best bets for August 11th, 2022. His favorite MLB bettings picks for player props, money lines, run lines, and game totals.

A short slate of games won't stop us from wagering on them! Whether you like game totals, sides, or player props, I have something in here for you and try to cover a little bit of everything!

Last month, I started my own free sports betting newsletter, and the good people here at RotoBaller are allowing me to share my picks and data with you here in this space! You can access the free substack here and sign up for daily emails in addition to viewing the picks daily here on the RotoBaller website.

In this article, I'll be providing my MLB favorite betting picks on Thursday, August 11th, 2022. The odds on these bets vary from book to book and are constantly changing. I primarily use FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks, but I would strongly encourage you to shop for the best odds at whatever books you use daily. I would also advise checking back later in the day as I may add bets depending on odds changing or specific props becoming available after I first post.

MLB Betting Picks: Strikeout Projections

I do my own strikeout projections for just about every pitcher, every day. I use both season-long data and the most recent 14-day rolling samples from pitchers and opposing hitters when calculating these projections and I also include some other helpful stats here that I look at while making my picks, including pitchers' SwStr%, BB%, etc... These are median projections that are based on the average length of start for each pitcher, so if you think a pitcher is going to pitch deeper or less deep than usual, adjust accordingly.

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MLB Betting Picks: Pitcher Prop Bets

Dylan Cease o7.5K vs. KCR (+100 DK)

This is the smash play of the two K props. Cease has seen a slight dip in his K production lately, but this match-up with KC is juicy as they don’t walk much and their K rate has been steadily climbing since going with the full youth movement in their lineup. This won’t be at plus odds for long.

Nick Lodolo o7.5K vs. CHC (+120 DK)

This is a reach and I know it. And I still can’t help myself. Lodolo is supremely talented and I am a sucker for these really big strikeout pitchers in good spots, even when they are flawed. Lodolo’s walk numbers are troubling, but he’s punched out 8+ hitters already three times this season, and he’s got 7 two other times.

The Cubs are very K prone and their recent sample of data vs. lefties made me bump up this projection a bit more. They can struggle against the curveball and Lodolo’s is special with a 20% SwStr% on that pitch. He’s going to be amped up pitching in the special “Field of Dreams game” tonight, too. It’s risky, but I’m taking a shot here at these odds.

Framber Valdez to record a win (-110 DK)

The Astros are a crazy -305 ML today, something I don’t mess around with. And I couldn’t get myself to go over 6.5 on the strikeouts for Valdez either. But this is a good spot for him, with Texas struggling against LHP and rolling out a rookie left-hander of their own. Valdez pitches deep into games, giving him more of an opportunity to leave with the lead, and be eligible for the win.

Merrill Kelly o18.5 outs (-145) + Edward Cabrera o14.5 outs (-160) = Parlay (+174)

Kelly has been on an incredible tear lately, allowing two runs or fewer in 7 straight starts. He’s pitched 7 or more innings in five of those starts, and I like his chances of getting into the 7th here against the light-hitting Bucs.

Cabrera has made only one start since coming back from an injury that cost him nearly two months. He threw 78 pitches and got through five clean innings against the Cubs. While the Phillies are a tougher draw, I think he should likely have a longer leash here with the pitch count and we just need him to finish the fifth.

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MLB Betting Picks: Sides and Totals

BAL ML (+115 DK)

The Orioles are 23-8 over the last 5 weeks, did you know that? I’m really not sure what else they need to do to get some respect, but this is not a bad team. In fact, I think they’re better than Boston at this point in the season and it’s not all that close. Kremer has been better than Winckowski and the Orioles have the edge in the bullpen, too. Give me the underdogs and let’s ride!

MIA/PHI under 8.5 runs (-120)

Cabrera looked great in his return and Kyle Gibson has been consistently solid for Philly most of the year. Cabrera is the better pitcher and is the guy we really need to come through here as Philly’s offense has been solid of late. Miami’s bats have been cold and Gibson pitched well against them as recently as last month.

MLB Betting Picks: Betting Trends

I usually include this chart at least once a week in my newsletter, so that readers can see how every team has fared in specific situations this year. I like looking at trends, but I use them to support my data-driven picks, I don't rely on them by themselves.

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I hope you find my data and picks helpful and profitable! Thanks for checking out my picks and content here at RotoBaller!

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