RADIO
There are always players expected to break out in their second seasons who don't, for whatever reason. Sometimes they continue their slide toward irrelevance and, other times, they come back and perform well in their third NFL seasons.
I've looked back at the 2016 rookie class to find three players who haven't performed up to expectations yet for a variety of reasons--one because he's played behind a good player, one because he was injured, and one because he just couldn't carve out a role on his team.
I think these players can bounce back this season. Here's why:
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Third Time's a Charm
Derrick Henry (RB, Tennessee Titans)
I wrote a good chunk of this between the Titans moving on from DeMarco Murray and signing Dion Lewis. The addition of Lewis changes some things, obviously, and it becomes a bit more difficult to make a case for Henry, but I'm here to do it anyway! Let's start with a few paragraphs I wrote before the Lewis acquisition:
The problem with Derrick Henry's fantasy value over the first two seasons of his career has been that he's been stuck behind Murray, a very good running back who the Titans felt gave them the best chance to win football games. Murray's value has mostly come in spurts. A look at his game log for this past season, for instance, shows that; Henry ran for 131 yards on 19 carries the Colts, but the game before that he ran for just nine yards and the game after he ran for 13. He was able to put up strong numbers when given a chance, but he wasn't consistently able to get those chances.
Henry naysayers can point to some tangible evidence that he isn't going to be that good--notably, his performance against Jacksonville at the end of the season when he turned his 28 carries into just 51 yards. Henry's yards per carry numbers fluctuated pretty wildly on a game to game basis in 2017, but that can partially be blamed on the Titans offensive line, which was a major strength in 2016 but regressed in 2017. If that line can get back to their 2016 production, Henry should find more open room inside, allowing him to avoid repeating the three 2017 games where he averaged fewer than two yards per carry. If the line doesn't improve, then Henry's still a valuable player, but his upside is capped. I saw someone on Twitter who picked Henry as the RB5 next season--that's the kind of thing that is possible with improved line play, but is unlikely at this point. I'd feel more comfortable projecting him to finish somewhere in the upper teens. Sure, DeMarco Murray finished 2016 as the RB4, but the better bet is on the Titans run blocking to improve somewhat, but not so drastically that Henry ends up as a top five fantasy back.
Now, Dion Lewis gives Henry a more clear ceiling -- he won't end up as the RB4 this season unless something happens to Lewis. Lewis averaged 5.0 yards per carry last season with the Patriots and ended up with 896 yards and six touchdowns, and also showed himself to be useful in the passing game. I don't think it's a great comparison, but a Lewis/Henry pairing feels a little like the Jeff Fisher-era Titans teaming up Chris Johnson and Lendale White, except Lewis isn't as good as Johnson and Henry is better than White (so, uhh, maybe not a good comparison?)
I can see these two in a timeshare this season, one that gives Henry more playing time than last season. I think his floor is raised this year and he provides some good value later in the draft, but I'm also worried about his ADP. It was going to shoot up after the team moved on from Murray; will it still rise too much with Lewis in town? We'll see, but I think Henry can produce some good numbers this year, even with Dion Lewis taking a good chunk of the snaps.
Kenneth Dixon (RB, Baltimore Ravens)
Dixon didn't have a second season as he missed the whole thing with a torn meniscus. The Ravens used a variety of running backs in his place: Alex Collins, Javorius Allen, and Terrance West saw the majority of the carries for the team. West started the year as the starter but was ineffective and ceded playing time to the others. Allen was useful as a pass catcher--46 catches for 250 yards and two touchdowns--and ran well too, but it was Collins who ended the year as the main man in the backfield. 212 carries for 973 yards and six touchdowns. He averaged 4.6 yards per carry.
Now, let's go way back in time, to the days of 2016. Dixon ran the ball 88 times for 382 yards and two touchdowns. That's a yards per carry average of 4.3. He was targeted 41 times, which he converted into 162 receiving yards and a touchdown on 30 receptions. Collins in 2017 caught 23 of his 36 targets for 187 yards.
These numbers show that Collins has been more effective as a Raven that Dixon was his rookie year, but it's close. Collins is an exclusive rights free agent this off-season, which means he'll be back with the Ravens barring some strange, unforeseen circumstances.
But Dixon has a great shot at grabbing the second spot on the depth chart and playing a big role in the Baltimore passing game. In five of his last six games of the 2016 season, Dixon received three or more targets, including an 11 target game against New England. With the Ravens committing more to the run game--they ranked just 29th in passing last season and quarterback Joe Flacco is #NotElite--there's room for Dixon to perform well next season even with Collins in front of him.
Baltimore's offensive line dealt with injuries last season--notably to Marshal Yanda and Alex Lewis--but still ranked sixth in adjusted line yards. A healthy offensive line will help the run game even more. I love Dixon as a late round pick, especially in PPR.
Tyler Boyd (WR, Cincinnati Bengals)
How you feel about Tyler Boyd this year depends a lot on how you feel about John Ross this year. After Boyd had 54 catches for 603 yards and a touchdown during his rookie season, he played in just 10 games last year due to a knee injury, catching 22 passes for 225 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Boyd can be useful in the short passing game for the Bengals this year, but if Ross can put together a strong preseason then we might see the Bengals using him on the inside with A.J. Green and Brandon LaFell on the outside. But I'm among the many, many people who think the Bengals messed up when they picked John Ross, so I'm hopeful that Boyd ends up with a season that looks much more like his rookie year but with more scoring upside.
During his rookie year, Boyd was in the slot on 57.0 percent of offensive snaps for the Bengals, the second highest rate in the league. He was 27th in catch rate and 26th in contested catch rate. The Bengals re-signed tight end Tyler Eifert, which might limit some of Boyd's effectiveness, but it's hard to see a healthy Boyd doing any worse than he did in 2017.
I'm also anticipating a better year from Andy Dalton, which would help Boyd. Dalton had his lowest completion percentage since his rookie season in 2017. After two strong years in 2015 and 2016, Dalton regressed back toward his early career numbers. Thankfully, the Bengals got rid of head coa...oh, Marvin Lewis is still there? Well, there's a new offensive coo...nope, Bill Lazor is still there.
Look, I can't confidently tell you that Boyd is going to have a good season, but I also can't guarantee that any third year players are going to have good seasons. Looking back over that draft class, there's a ton of disappointing wide receivers and running backs who are already out of chances. Boyd will have a chance to be the slot receiver for the Bengals and Andy Dalton's number two option this year. That's worth a late flyer in deep leagues.
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