RADIO
This season in the NFL has been anything but routine. Rookies were deprived of an offseason program and the entire preseason to get acclimated to their new home and learn the playbook. Franchise players suffered devastating injuries. Games were played on Tuesdays and Wednesdays when needed. Indeed, in one instance, the Denver Broncos were forced to play without any of their quarterbacks and had to start a practice-squad wide receiver at the position. Despite all of these unprecedented challenges, the NFL was determined to play the season no matter what, and now, here we are, a few days away from Super Bowl LV. This season was an incredible achievement for the NFL and all of the personnel who helped make it all possible in the wake of a global pandemic.
If you have been following along with my sports betting picks for the NFL Playoffs, the final act has arrived. The Super Bowl has almost an unlimited amount of wagers that can be placed, from the typical spreads, over/unders, and player props, to penalty props, kicker props, timeout props, ridiculous cross-sport props, and novelty props that have absolutely nothing to do with the game itself. In this article, I am going to give you my favorite bets for the big game, but I will also present you with several bets that are likely to hit depending on how you think the game will play out. And of course, we are going to talk about some fun novelty props just for kicks, because it is the Super Bowl, and even those viewers who don't typically watch football can have something to bet on.
Before we get into the extravagant number of bets for this game, let's recap last week's action because it was a thrilling Sunday and we were profitable at the end of the day.
NOTE: All game wagers are from DraftKings Sportsbook, which is constantly changing to reflect the shifts in money wagered. The novelty props are from various sportsbooks which will be stated.
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Championship Sunday Recap
Buccaneers v. Packers: Best Bets 1-1; 4-5 on Props
Unfortunately, Cameron Brate was not used as much as he was in the previous two games, but he got over the 2.5 receptions which was the most confident bet on the slate. First touchdown props are a crapshoot, but Davante Adams has been good to us this year hitting pay-dirt first seven times, however, the Buccaneers got the ball first and scored on the opening drive so that bet was dead from the jump. Thankfully, he went over his receptions but fell short of his yardage. Allen Lazard was mugged all game, Aaron Jones fumbled and suffered a chest injury, and Ronald Jones was about as productive as a tree, but we still profited on this slate because we hit every player prop with plus odds. As predicted, Tom Brady (+165) and Aaron Rodgers (+124) each threw over 2.5 TDs and Leonard Fournette had four receptions (+126) in the first half.
Bills v. Chiefs: Best Bet Bills +3.5 (0-1); 3-3 on Props
Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce performed exactly as expected by sailing over all of their receiving props. However, the Bills did not return the favor as they fell just short of their lines. Stefon Diggs was one reception shy and 20 yards, and Devin Singletary was replaced by T.J. Yeldon after he dropped a screen pass with nothing but daylight in front of him.
Now, let's get dirty.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers v. Kansas City Chiefs
Spread: KC -3 at -113/ TB +3 at -109
Over/under: 56
Moneyline: KC -159/ TB +140
The Super Bowl has more bets available than anyone could hope for. IF you can think of a prop for this game, I'm pretty sure you can bet it. Therefore, we are going to do things a little differently. Let's dive in position by position and analyze the best picks on the slate.
Quarterbacks
Best Bet Tom Brady OVER 295.5 pass yards(-118) - This is a pretty simple breakdown. The Chiefs' offense can not be stopped, so to win this game Brady is going to have to keep pace. He may be 75 years old in football years (43 in human years), but he can still sling the rock with the best of them. Brady has completely bought into Bruce Arians' deep-passing philosophy and his production did not drop at all. He finished first in deep ball attempts (98), air yards (5,554), and air yards per attempt (9.1). He also finished second in completed air yards (2,923) and third in pass yards on the season (4,616). Just last game, Brady had 280 yards, but Chris Godwin had several drops and Mike Evans had two deep passes bounce off his hands so that 280 could have easily been 350. He only threw for 262 yards in his last Super Bowl, but the Patriots had the Rams number from the first whistle, and Brady did not need to lean on his arm. In the previous three Super Bowls, which were highly contested, Brady threw for 505 yards vs. the Eagles, 466 yards vs. the Falcons, and 328 yards vs. the Seahawks. Win or lose, I would be shocked if Brady did not have a 300-yard game on Sunday.
Other Props: Patrick Mahomes OVER 2.5 pass TDs (-155), OVER 1.5 TDs in the first half (+180), and First TD (+2200); Tom Brady OVER 2.5 TDs (+125), OVER 1.5 TDs in the first half (+230), OVER 24.5 completions, OVER 62.5% completion percentage.
This game features the two most prolific passing offenses in the NFL and I expect a shootout between the G.O.A.T. and the future G.O.A.T. In their Week 12 matchup, Mahomes threw for 462 yards and three touchdowns. However, that was mostly to Tyreek Hill in the first half.
Tyreek Hill in the first half
✌ 8 catches
✌ 210 yards
✌ 2 TDs
✌ 41.0 PPR fantasy points pic.twitter.com/hwBKQBUc9M— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) November 29, 2020
I expect the Buccaneers game plan to center around trying to stop Tyreek Hill, which means Mahomes is going to have to utilize his other weapons to find mismatches in the defense. This usually leads the superstar quarterback to create on the fly and there is no one better at turning a broken play into a magical moment. I fully expect to see a big play from a role player such as Mecole Hardman, Byron Pringle, or Demarcus Robinson, and if one of them gets in the endzone Mahomes should easily hit three touchdowns. I also love Mahomes to throw two touchdowns in the first half at +180. Kansas City wants to get off to a hot start to put the pressure on Tampa Bay as soon as possible, and they were the third highest-scoring offense in the first half this year (15.7 points/pg). It is also extremely difficult to run against the Buccaneers who finished first in rush yards allowed (80.5/pg), yards per carry allowed (3.6), and rushing touchdowns allowed (10), so I would fully expect the bulk of the Chiefs' points to come off the arm of Mahomes. I like the Chiefs to put up at least 17 points in the first half. Lastly, I love the +2200 odds on Mahomes to run in the first touchdown of the game. He did it against the Browns in the Divisional Round, and he did it three other times on the season. He also did it in last year's Super Bowl. If the Chiefs get the ball inside the five yard-line, they love to run the run-pass-keep option. This play selection gives Mahomes the most options to quickly assess the defense and find the best place to go with the ball to get it in the endzone, and sometimes, he keeps it. A small $10.00 bet can net you a return of $220.00. Worth it.
On the other side of the ball, the Buccaneers are not going to be able to sit on the clock because no lead is safe when Mahomes is on the other sideline. This means Brady should throw it early and often, and he has an array of weapons to help him get the job done. When you are getting +125 for Brady to throw 3 TDs, you have to take it, especially when the opponent is going to force the Buccaneers into a heavy passing game-script. Brady threw 40 touchdowns this year, and he has failed to throw for at least two touchdowns only three times in 2020. I think it is safe to say he could easily hit three in the biggest game of the season against the best offense in football. Let's trickle that momentum into Brady's first-half touchdowns prop as well at +230. The Buccaneers finished a hair behind the Chiefs in first-half scoring (15.6 points/pg) and I am looking for them to try and make a big impact early on in an attempt to get an early lead. The odds are too tasty to pass up. I am also jumping on Brady to have over 24.5 completions because he is going to have to throw it a ton in this game, and he only fell short of this number by four completions in his last Super Bowl vs. the Rams, a game where he hardly had to throw it at all. Otherwise, Brady has had at least 27 completions in every Super Bowl he has played in since 2007. He also has a career 65% Super Bowl completion percentage, and has gone over 62.5% in five of his nine appearances, only failing to hit the number in his first Super Bowl and ones where he faced the ferocious defenses of the New York Giants, the Philadelphia Eagles, and the Los Angeles Rams.
Running Backs
Best Bet: Leonard Fournette OVER 48.5 rush yards (-118)
Fournette has regained his role as the lead dog in the Buccaneers' backfield since the playoffs started, and he has had at least 55 yards rushing in each game. If the Buccaneers can get a lead in this game, they are going to lean on Fournette to move the chains and burn the clock. Further, if the Buccaneers are trailing, Fournette is also the passing downs back which means he will be on the field regardless. The former LSU sledgehammer is averaging 16 carries at a clip of 4.4 yards per carry this postseason, so even a slight decrease in usage and production leaves room for him to get to the 49 rush yards threshold. Lock it in.
Other Props: Clyde Edwards-Helaire UNDER 30.5 rush yards (-112) and OVER 7.5 rush attempts; Darrell Williams OVER 12.5 receiving yards (-124); Leonard Fournette OVER 3.5 receptions (-167) and First TD (+1050).
Over his last four regular-season games, Edwards-Helaire had at least 11 carries. Then, he missed Weeks 16 and 17, and the Divisional Round vs. the Browns due to injury. He returned to the line up on Championship Sunday, but he might as well not have since he only dropped six carries for seven yards. However, he did not suffer a setback in the game, he has had an additional two weeks to heal, and he has been a full participant in practice all week. All signs point to Edwards-Helaire having his usual workload, so he should easily reach eight carries. The bad news is the Chiefs' offensive line is significantly banged up, and it is almost impossible to run against the Buccaneers as it is, So while I'm like him to surpass his attempts total, I'm betting he stays under 31 rush yards. Darrell Williams is a different story. He has been excellent filling in for Edwards-Helaire, but where he really stands out over him is in pass protection. If the Chiefs are in a third-and-long situation, you can rest assured that it will be Williams on the field and not Edwards-Helaire in order to keep Mahomes from taking nasty hits in the pocket. His receiving yards line of 12.5 is just too low. He could easily reach this number on one catch, and since he will likely be the third-down running back, I really like his chances to get there.
On the other side of the field, Fournette has not only taken lead rushing duties back from Ronald Jones II, but he is the unquestioned pass-catching running back as well. He is far superior to Jones in pass protection and he has better hands in the receiving game, and Brady loves to target his running backs out of the backfield. Fournette had four receptions in the first half against the packers, and we should see similar usage on Sunday. Additionally, the Chiefs have allowed 93 receptions to running backs this year so it is clearly a weakness in the defense that can be exploited. I would lay the -167 juice on this one because it's going over. Lastly, the +1050 odds of Fournette to score the first touchdown of the game is too tempting to pass up. The Buccaneers were first in red-zone pass attempts this year, but they chose to run it on first down in the red zone 59% of the time, and we have already seen Fournette turn a one-yard loss into a magical run. All it would take is a pass interference call in the endzone or a player tackled inside the five and then Fournette will likely get the call to try and punch it in on first down.
Wide Receivers
No Best Bet.
Player Props: Tyreek Hill OVER 92.5 receiving yards (-130) and First TD (+650); Mecole Hardman OVER 28.5 receiving yards (-120), OVER 2.5 receptions (+115), and Anytime TD (+250); Antonio Brown OVER 40.5 receiving yards; Chris Godwin OVER 77.5 receiving yards (-106) and Anytime TD (+150); Mike Evans Anytime TD (+100) and First TD (+900)
The sportsbooks have made it very hard to take the over on Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce's receiving props by setting their lines at historical highs, daring you to bet the unders. Well, we are not falling for it. We are not going to bet most of them, but I can't fade Tyreek Hill's receiving yards. He had at least 100 yards in both playoff games this year, and you saw what he did to the Buccaneers in Week 12 (see above). There is only one game left so I am going out rooting for Hill to explode. His ability to burn any cornerback and get behind any defense also makes his first touchdown of the game prop very enticing at +625. I also love Hardman's props because, with one game left to play, he is far too electric to only give a few opportunities. He could take a Jet Sweep thirty yards, or get behind the defense on one play for a 50-yard house call. I expect him to get one to two rush attempts and five to six targets, so his lines are too tempting to fade. He could also cash the anytime touchdown prop on special teams, adding one more dimension for your bet to hit that solely offensive players don't have.
Moving to the other side of the ball, Antonio Brown is back and looking to make an impact for the benefit of his offseason. He is also uber-talented and can hit 41 receiving yards on two or three catches. In his last game, he had two receptions for 49 yards and a touchdown before leaving early with a knee injury, so this line is a product of his health coming into the game. I think he plays a full set of snaps and catches between four and six passes. Chris Godwin should also be a heavy contributor and is likely to be Brady's favorite target on Sunday. He had an injury-riddled season and only played 12 games, but he is finally healthy and has surpassed 77 yards in four of his last five games.
He also went over this line in Week 12 versus the Chiefs. After this game, Godwin will be a free agent, so a fantastic performance could earn him a few more million dollars a year on his next contract. As for Mike Evans, I have no faith in his receiving props, but I love his anytime touchdown at +100 because he scored in his last two games, he scored twice in Week 12 against the Chiefs, and he is Brady's favorite target in the red zone. His first touchdown prop at +900 is also one I will be taking a long shot on because he has done it back to back weeks, so why not a trifecta?
Tight End
Best Bet: Rob Gronkowski Anytime TD (+180)
This play is a total gut call, but I am so confident that it happens that I decided to make it my best bet. Brady to Gronkowski is a Hall of Fame connection and this could be the last time these two play together in a Super Bowl. I fully expect Brady to give him one or two attempts in the endzone, and knowing Gronk, he will catch one. This Sunday, the Gronk Spike is coming to a television near you.
Other Props: Travis Kelce First TD (+625); Rob Gronkowski OVER 29.5 receiving yards (-118); Cameron Brate UNDER 3.5 Receptions (-136).
The sportsbooks think it is more likely than not that Kelce scores a touchdown (-162), so why not take a shot at +625 that he happens to catch the first one. I like Kelce to go over his 94.5 receiving yards prop, but it is juiced to -141 so I am not going to bet it because the value is not there. Cameron Brate, on the other hand, did not practice yesterday due to a back injury, so Gronkowski is likely to see an uptick in targets if he were to miss the game, be limited in the game, or re-aggravate his injury mid-game. That is also the reason we are going to bet Brate's under 3.5 receptions because it would take a lot for a player to miss the Super Bowl, and if he does play, he clearly won't be at 100%.
Defense
Player to have an Interception (YES): Tyrann Mathieu (+300); L'Jarius Snead (+500); Breshaud Breeland (+575)
It is no secret that Brady is more likely to throw an interception than Mahomes, and the sportsbooks agree, setting the odds at -177 for Brady to throw at least 1 interception compared with +135 for Mahomes. Mathieu is a ball-hawk, and he always seems to have his best games on the biggest stages. He finished the 2020 regular season with six interceptions and he stole another one from Baker Mayfield in the Divisional Round. All it would take is a tipped pass or a bobbled ball for Mathieu to put his offense back on the field. A for Snead and Breeland, Snead had a breakout rookie campaign and he is finally back to full strength, and Breeland has picked off Brady in each of the last two games he has faced him. The odds are too good to pass up here and, again, why not the trifecta?
Tackles: Devin White OVER 10.5 (-112)
White is a tackling machine and he has surpassed this number in four of his last six games. He is going to be flying all over the field in order to keep up with the Chiefs' playmakers, and he will have plenty of opportunities to tackle Kelce after he catches a wide-open pass. I think White has an incredible showing and finishes the game with 14 tackles.
Player to Record a sack (YES): Chris Jones (+125); Frank Clark (+140); Shaq Barrett (+120); Jason Pierre-Paul (+110)
It is extremely difficult to sack Mahomes, but Barrett and Pierre-Paul have been a dominant pass-rush duo and are coming off of a five-sack performance against Aaron Rodgers who was only sacked two more times than Mahomes in the regular season. Jones is facing rookie back-up right guard Aaron Stinnie in his third start ever, and while Stinnie played well against the Saints and the Packers, Jones is another beast entirely. The savvy veteran should be able to handle Stinnie with ease and get to Brady through the middle of the line. Frank Clark should also be able to put pressure on Brady because head coach Andy Reid and defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo are very aware that the key to beating Brady is to make him uncomfortable in the pocket. Spagnuolo was the defensive coordinator for the 2007 New York Giants who dismantled Brady in the Super Bowl, so you can be sure he has a few tricks up his sleeve for this one.
Game Props
Penalties: UNDER 10.5 total penalties (-137)
The referees tend to let players play and refrain from calling a ton of penalties in the Super Bowl. Last year, they did not call any holding penalties on the offensive or defensive lines, and we could see similar leniency to let things slide on Sunday.
Winning Margin: Chiefs to win by 1-6 points (+250) and Buccaneers to win by 1-6 points (+330)
Regardless of who wins, I am very confident that this is a close game. The Buccaneers have won seven in a row and are averaging 34 points per game over their last seven games, and the Chiefs are never out of it until the final whistle blows. This could come down to whoever has the ball last, so by betting both props at terrific odds, the bets are profitable. It is highly improbable that the Chiefs would lose by more than a touchdown, and Brady has only had one Super Bowl where he lost by more than six points. He suffered an eight-point loss to the Eagles, but remember that he had the ball with a chance to drive down and tie the game on the final possession, but he was sacked by Brandon Graham and fumbled, which sealed the Eagles victory.
Total Touchdowns: OVER 6.5 TDs combined (-121) - High scoring affair means lots of touchdowns.
Longest Touchdown: OVER 45.5 yards (-114) - Mahomes, Brady, Hill, Hardman, Godwin, and Scottie Miller. I like the potential for a bomb touchdown from one of them.
Two Point Conversions: Either team to have a two-point conversion (YES +230)
Punts: Punt to be downed inside the five yard-line (YES +330)
Drives: Buccaneers to have the longest (time) drive (-112) - The best way to keep Mahomes off the field is long extended drives that kill the clock.
Total Interceptions: OVER 1.5 (+125)
Total Team Points: Chiefs OVER 29.5 (-122) and Buccaneers OVER 26.5 (-125)
Trick Plays: OVER 2.5 total players to attempt a pass (+215) - We have routinely seen Brady utilize a trick play in the Super Bowl, and the Chiefs are sneaky weasels on offense so we could easily see Hill or Kelce throw a pass to the other one. This bet also cashes if Brady or Mahomes takes a vicious hit and is forced to miss some snaps.
Coaches Challenge: Any coaches challenge to overturn the ruling on the field (YES +115) - These are two savvy coaches, so if they challenge a ruling on the field they probably have a good idea that they are right.
Super Bowl LV MVP
Quarterbacks (-305): Patrick Mahomes (-106); Tom Brady (+190)
If you think the Buccaneers are going to win, the safe bet is Brady to win MVP. I simply can't see them winning and giving it to someone else, mostly because I do not think Brady has a bad game. Betting any quarterback to win the award at -305 is simply not worth it, so pick which team you think will win and then bet that quarterback.
Running Backs (+800): Leonard Fournette (+2500) - Any non-quarterback for MVP is a long shot, but Fournette has scored the most fantasy points out of all position players this postseason, and if he has a 100-yard game and finds the endzone twice, I could see them giving it to him. I do not see any other running back capable of taking home the award so do not bet any running back to win MVP at +800, take the drastically boosted odds on Fournette specifically.
Wide Receivers (+450): Tyreek Hill (+1200); Mike Evans (+3000) - Hill put up 13 receptions for 269 yards and three touchdowns last time he played the Buccaneers. I'm not saying he is going to do that again, but he could, and it would be very hard to give the MVP to Mahomes if that were the case. It is a similar story for Evans to take home the award as it would likely take double-digit receptions for over 100 yards and at least two touchdowns. Unlikely, but worth a small $5.00 or $10.00 bet just for the heck of it.
Tight Ends (+1000): Travis Kelce (+1300) - Kelce would also need double-digit receptions for over 100 yards and at least two touchdowns to take home the award. There is no other possibility for a tight end to win MVP, so if you think Kelce can win it, do not bet the +1000 on any tight end to take home the award, bet the +1300 on Kelce specifically.
Defensive Lineman (+2000): Jason Pierre-Paul (+7000) and Shaquil Barrett (+5000) - This does not happen for either of them without multiple sacks and a forced turnover, but if they were to score a defensive touchdown their chances increase dramatically.
Novelty Props
Coin Toss: NO - I just came here to say do not bet on the coin toss. There is literally not a worse bet you can make as there is no way for us to gain an analytical advantage on the outcome.
Brady to Throw a Sideline Tantrum: YES -150 (MyBookie) - Brady always throws a sideline tantrum in the Super Bowl.
National Anthem: OVER two minutes -120 (BetOnline) - Singers Jazmine Sullivan and Eric Church are singing the National Anthem as a duet this year. Sullivan sang the National Anthem at the 2014 NHL All-Star game and it came in at just under 2 minutes. The last time there was a duo singing the anthem, Aretha Franklin sang it in 2 minutes and 9 seconds with Aaron Neville. I think the duet pushes the National Anthem over two minutes this year, especially if there are a few lyric-less guitar chords played in the middle.
Who will the MVP Refer to First?: Team/Teammates (+100) or Family (+900) (BetOnline) - Last year, Mahomes thanked his teammates first and I expect him to do so again this year. However, if Brady wins the award, he is also likely to thank his teammates first since I can't recall a time where he thanked God first. The longshot on this one is "Family" at +900.
Color of the Gatorade Bath: NO - I also came here to tell you not to bet on the color of the Gatorade bath. A former employee of Gatorade previously revealed that there is no rhyme or reason to the color of the Gatorade. Contrary to what people think, the Gatorade color does not follow any pattern or team superstition. Gatorade selects the colors completely at random, and there are three coolers at the beverage table, each with a different color. This adds to the improbability in predicting the color because there is no way to tell which of the three coolers the players will choose. So if anyone tells you they have an inside tip on the color of the Gatorade bath, they are lying. If you want to bet this prop anyways, your best bet is to choose the color with the best odds, which is purple at +750 or Blue at +700 (BetOnline).
First Song Played at the Halftime Show: Blinding Lights +180; Starboy +300; Can't Feel my face +300; I Feel it Coming +900; The Hills +1000
It is very rare for the first song played to be the current billboard hit for the artist. Bruno Mars chose his first hit "Billionaire," Maroon 5 played their first-ever song "Harder to Breathe," Jennifer Lopez played "Jenny From the Block," Coldplay played "Yellow," and Justin Timberlake played a new single that was released a few weeks prior to the game. For that reason, I do not think the Weeknd plays his current hit "Blinding Lights" first. I am leaning "Starboy" or "Can't Feel My Face" as his earlier hits, or his first breakout hit "The Hills" for the tasty +900 odds.
Color of the Weeknd's Jacket to Start the Halftime Show: Red +175 - He is wearing a red jacket on his most recent album cover.
How Many Times Will the Patriots be Mentioned: Over 2 +105 (Bovada) - Tony Romo is sure to refer to certain aspects of Brady's game that have carried over from the Patriots, or to discuss different things Brady is asked to do in Tampa Bay that he wasn't asked to do on the Patriots. The favorite is on the under, but I would not be surprised if the Patriots are mentioned four times or more during the broadcast.
