X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

The Running Back Age Cliff: When Should You Fade Aging Fantasy Football Veterans?

Derrick Henry - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

When should you start fading fantasy football running backs and when should you start getting concerned as their age cliffs approach? John breaks down how you should handle older RBs.

The NFL and other professional sports leagues are all centered around collecting the most genetically gifted and physically talented athletes and having them compete against each other. The mental aspect of the game is important as well, but without the raw physical ability, one simply cannot compete in the big leagues.

For running backs, toughness, durability, and explosiveness are major keys to success. All of these fade after a certain age. There's a reason no 40-year-old (or older) RBs have competed in the league in decades. The position puts an absolute beating on your body and requires burst and elusiveness that simply doesn't last late into the 30s. There aren't many backs above 30, either, for that matter.

The age cliff hits hard for tailbacks because of the punishment they take.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

 

An Important Aside: Injury Histories And Elite Players

Before going into the age cliff, it's important to know that the best running backs tend to last just a little bit longer as long as they don't have terrible injury luck. Which in itself brings up another point. But something important you should pay attention to for individual players is their history of severe injuries.

These can sometimes unilaterally end a player's time playing well at all, though. Denver Broncos running back Javonte Williams is a prime example. He looked like a breakout player early in his career before he suffered a devastating, multi-ligament knee injury, tearing his ACL, LCL, and posterolateral corner.

And he hasn't looked remotely the same since. It's looking like it will be a career-ender, effectively, for the fourth-year pro. While he wasn't elite before the injury, he showed signs of serious promise, was much more elusive, showed better top speed, and put together some excellent tackle-breaking highlights.

It's the fate of many players to have their careers seriously damaged by injury, though, and the age cliff comes sooner and faster for those who have. And RBs who are constantly listed on the injury report should be cause for some concern as well since all the little dings add up in a big way down the road.

And it's important to mention that elite players tend to play well further into their careers. The incredible athleticism of the league's best running backs usually means they tend to stay above the curve for longer than less talented players do.

 

What Age Should You Start Being Concerned?

28 is the golden number for running backs. On average, the 28/29 range is when their production starts to fall off. Again, for elite players, it's not necessary to get worried at that point, but 27 is a good age to start selling off RBs in dynasty because, at that point, their days are numbered.

In redraft, there's not much issue with spending premium picks on backs that age. Many still have at least a few good years ahead of them, and players fall in the draft all the time as they approach 30. This season, of the top 15 PPR fantasy football scorers season-long, only two of them were 30 to end the season.

One was Minnesota Vikings RB Aaron Jones, who didn't turn 30 until December 2. The other was Baltimore Ravens RB Derrick Henry, a future Hall of Famer, elite player, and one of the best to ever do it. As we mentioned earlier, the most elite players tend to fall off less quickly.

Heath is a good analyst, so you probably shouldn't judge him by the above tweet. The data he collected is very good --  it just applies less to the elite backs, and Henry's situation went from one of the worst in the league to one of the best, so it might not be applicable.

It's entirely possible that Henry did have a fall-off in athleticism, but he's still elite. Maybe it was small, but if he had been on the Titans this past season, he would have had a much less dominant year. Still, Heath's research shows us that the first "cliff" is around age 28.

But the cliff itself is somewhat of a misnomer. There appears to be a small decline in production before a sharper fall-off, so rather than a cliff with a flat surface, there's a smoother dip before the incline increases sharply.

 

What Age Should You Start Fading Running Backs?

Again, it depends on the player and the situation. Great players in great situations will have much more legroom. The aforementioned Henry will be 31 years old for the entirety of the 2025-26 season, yet not many have an issue with investing a premium pick in him in redraft fantasy leagues.

And it makes perfect sense. He's still a fantastic player. His top speed is still elite (he clocked 21.72 mph max this year), and for a 250-pound running back, that's incredible. It's even more incredible that he's doing that at 30 years old. So, expecting a big production dip for him next season probably isn't reasonable.

Instead, for elite players, we should expect to see a smaller dip in advanced stats like missed tackles forced per touch, top speed, and the like before we start getting concerned. We haven't seen that yet for Henry. But for most players, it's reasonable to start getting worried earlier.

New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara will turn 30 before the 2025-26 season starts. His excellent play in 2024 was the result of a better offensive scheme, among other things, and his MTF/T rate improved. But the broader trend showed a steady decline in previous years, so he should be treated with some caution.

Jones is probably a bigger name to be concerned with. He had a solid season with the Vikings but continues to deal with a ton of injury issues, and he averaged his lowest yards per carry (4.46) since he entered the league, despite good offensive line play.

It wouldn't be surprising if he showed a bit more decline in 2025, and then fell off hard after that. The smooth, downward-sloping edge of the cliff can be very useful for us with players like Jones and Kamara, even if it has some bumps in it due to changes in the situation.

So, we have examples of RBs still looking explosive into their 30s, as great players often do. But the sheer edge of the age cliff comes around 30 for more average players and 31-32 for the elite players. Anyone who's existed that long can attest to that as well, though. So, it's little surprise that it applies to football, too.

To avoid risk, you should try to sell off your age-29 or older running backs in dynasty and start getting more wary of them in redraft. Fading them one year early is a better value proposition than one year too late.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Sal Stewart

Reds Promoting Sal Stewart to Majors
Daniel Suarez

is A DFS Risk for Darlington Lineups?
Randy Rodríguez

Randy Rodriguez to Undergo Tommy John Surgery
Noah Gragson

Should Fantasy Managers Roster Noah Gragson for Darlington?
Ty Dillon

is an Excellent Punt Option for Darlington DFS Lineups
Bogdan Bogdanović

Bogdan Bogdanovic to Miss the Rest of EuroBasket
Denny Hamlin

Picking Up Where He Left Off At Darlington
Kyle Larson

The Sky Is The Limit for Kyle Larson at Darlington
Ryan Blaney

a Strong DFS Play at Darlington This Weekend
Tyler Reddick

Shouldn't Be Overlooked at Darlington This Weekend
Alex Bowman

An Easy Place-Differential Play in DFS This Weekend
Ty Gibbs

Could Be Strong at Darlington This Weekend
Erik Jones

Has Best Darlington Qualifying Effort Since Last Win
Zane Smith

Hopeful For Another Solid Run At Darlington
AJ Allmendinger

Still Seeking First Top-10 Finish at Darlington
Chase Elliott

Likely Won't Factor for the Win at Darlington
Joey Logano

Might Focus More on Playoff Races
Chris Buescher

Missing Playoffs Allows Chris Buescher to Potentially Go All Out at Darlington
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen Qualifies Too Well for DFS Consideration
Austin Dillon

Earns Best Qualifying Result at Darlington
Kyle Busch

Downturn in Speed This Year Makes Him a Worse DFS Option
Carson Hocevar

Should Run Better at Darlington Than the Numbers Predict
Ryan Preece

a Low-key Strong DFS Option at Darlington After His Speed in the Spring
Michael McDowell

Don't Expect Much From Michael McDowell
Aroldis Chapman

Agrees to Contract Extension
Juan Soto

Homers Twice in Loss
Nick Kurtz

Avoids Serious Injury
MacKenzie Gore

Placed on 15-Day Injured List
Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Reaches 25-Homer, 25-Steal Milestone
Chris Sale

Activated on Saturday
Dansby Swanson

Homers Twice, Drives in Six in Win
Nick Kurtz

Leaves Game With Oblique Soreness
Joe Burrow

Bengals Feel Joe Burrow Just had "the Best Training Camp of his Career"
Randy Rodríguez

Tommy John Surgery Recommended for Randy Rodriguez
Corey Seager

Placed on Injured List
Jackson Chourio

to Return From Injured List on Saturday
Jordan Lawlar

Diamondbacks Set to Promote Jordan Lawlar
Dallas Mavericks

Olivier-Maxence Prosper Waived by the Mavs
Lauri Markkanen

Dominant in Win Over Great Britain
Xander Bogaerts

Suffers Foot Fracture, Set to Hit Injured List
Nikola Jović

Nikola Jovic Leads Serbia to a Win
Nikola Jokić

Nikola Jokic Shines Versus Portugal
De'Von Achane

Should be Ready for Week 1
Jose Alvarado

"Good" After Recent Fall
Alec Burleson

Lands on Injured List With Wrist Inflammation
Emmanuel Clase

Luis L. Ortiz to Remain On Leave for Rest of Season
Kyle Schwarber

has Historic Performance in Rout of Braves
Boston Red Sox

Payton Tolle Expected to Make Debut on Friday
Green Bay Packers

Packers Acquire Micah Parsons, Sign him to Four-Year Extension
Jauan Jennings

Remains Sidelined at Practice
Corey Seager

Undergoing Appendectomy on Thursday
Chris Godwin

to Miss First Month of Season, Possibly More
Quinshon Judkins

Not Considering Return to College
A.J. Brown

Returns to Practice, Expected to Play in Week 1
Jaylen Wright

Undergoes Surgery, Could be Back "Septemberish"
Tyreek Hill

on Track to Play in Week 1
Kyren Williams

to See Reduced Workload?
Jayden Reed

Dealing with Jones Fracture in Left Foot
Lauri Markkanen

Torches Sweden
Neemias Queta

Dominates in EuroBasket Opener
Kawhi Leonard

Clippers Not Allowing Kawhi Leonard to Play Back-to-Backs
Dallas Mavericks

Mavericks Looking to Trade Olivier-Maxence Prosper
Tyrese Haliburton

Expects to Return in 15 Months
Malik Nabers

Expected to be Full-Go for Week 1
Freddie Freeman

Out Wednesday With Neck Stinger
Travis Hunter

Back at Practice, Will be Ready for Week 1
De'Von Achane

Not Practicing on Wednesday
Rashee Rice

Accepting Six-Game Suspension to Begin the Year
Kyle Hamilton

Ravens, Kyle Hamilton Finalizing Four-Year Extension
Rashee Rice

NFL Aiming to Place Six-Game Suspension on Rashee Rice
De'Von Achane

Dolphins GM Says De'Von Achane Will be Ready for Week 1
Joe Mixon

Texans GM: "We'll See" if Joe Mixon Plays in 2025
Adam Thielen

Traded to the Vikings
Terance Mann

Confident About Having a Big Year in Brooklyn
Zaccharie Risacher

Aims to Improve Ball-Handling Skills
NBA

Pistons And Timberwolves Join Race for Malik Beasley
John Tonje

Signs Two-Way Deal With Jazz
Max Strus

to Miss 3-4 Months After Surgery
Dallas Cowboys

Cowboys Still Expect Micah Parsons to Play in Week 1
Nikola Jović

Heat Have High Hopes for Nikola Jovic
Golden State Warriors

Cody Martin Drawing Interest From Warriors
Minnesota Timberwolves

Timberwolves Interested in Reunion With Bones Hyland
Kylor Kelley

Joins Lakers
Colin Castleton

Links Up With Magic
NHL

Jan Rutta Lands in Switzerland
Kirby Dach

Skates on Monday
COL

Tyson Barrie Retires From NHL

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP