Running Back Age Cliff

When should you start fading fantasy football running backs and when should you start getting concerned as their age cliffs approach? John breaks down how you should handle older RBs.

The NFL and other professional sports leagues are all centered around collecting the most genetically gifted and physically talented athletes and having them compete against each other. The mental aspect of the game is important as well, but without the raw physical ability, one simply cannot compete in the big leagues.

For running backs, toughness, durability, and explosiveness are major keys to success. All of these fade after a certain age. There's a reason no 40-year-old (or older) RBs have competed in the league in decades. The position puts an absolute beating on your body and requires burst and elusiveness that simply doesn't last late into the 30s. There aren't many backs above 30, either, for that matter.

The age cliff hits hard for tailbacks because of the punishment they take.

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An Important Aside: Injury Histories And Elite Players

Before going into the age cliff, it's important to know that the best running backs tend to last just a little bit longer as long as they don't have terrible injury luck. Which in itself brings up another point. But something important you should pay attention to for individual players is their history of severe injuries.

These can sometimes unilaterally end a player's time playing well at all, though. Denver Broncos running back Javonte Williams is a prime example. He looked like a breakout player early in his career before he suffered a devastating, multi-ligament knee injury, tearing his ACL, LCL, and posterolateral corner.

Javonte Williams plays football today

pic.twitter.com/uwXgIEFqtR

— Jeff Mueller, PT, DPT (@jmthrivept) August 19, 2023

And he hasn't looked remotely the same since. It's looking like it will be a career-ender, effectively, for the fourth-year pro. While he wasn't elite before the injury, he showed signs of serious promise, was much more elusive, showed better top speed, and put together some excellent tackle-breaking highlights.

It's the fate of many players to have their careers seriously damaged by injury, though, and the age cliff comes sooner and faster for those who have. And RBs who are constantly listed on the injury report should be cause for some concern as well since all the little dings add up in a big way down the road.

And it's important to mention that elite players tend to play well further into their careers. The incredible athleticism of the league's best running backs usually means they tend to stay above the curve for longer than less talented players do.

What Age Should You Start Being Concerned?

28 is the golden number for running backs. On average, the 28/29 range is when their production starts to fall off. Again, for elite players, it's not necessary to get worried at that point, but 27 is a good age to start selling off RBs in dynasty because, at that point, their days are numbered.

In redraft, there's not much issue with spending premium picks on backs that age. Many still have at least a few good years ahead of them, and players fall in the draft all the time as they approach 30. This season, of the top 15 PPR fantasy football scorers season-long, only two of them were 30 to end the season.

One was Minnesota Vikings RB Aaron Jones, who didn't turn 30 until December 2. The other was Baltimore Ravens RB Derrick Henry, a future Hall of Famer, elite player, and one of the best to ever do it. As we mentioned earlier, the most elite players tend to fall off less quickly.

Players I am FADING due to Age Curves

Don’t get caught drafting these players, who are at high risk of a sudden production drop off this year.

1. Derrick Henry (age 30)

Since 2010, multi-time top-12 fantasy RBs who changed teams in Year 9 have gone on to average just 8.3 FPG… pic.twitter.com/zy4TGtrjnU

— Ryan Heath (@RyanJ_Heath) August 17, 2024

Heath is a good analyst, so you probably shouldn't judge him by the above tweet. The data he collected is very good --  it just applies less to the elite backs, and Henry's situation went from one of the worst in the league to one of the best, so it might not be applicable.

It's entirely possible that Henry did have a fall-off in athleticism, but he's still elite. Maybe it was small, but if he had been on the Titans this past season, he would have had a much less dominant year. Still, Heath's research shows us that the first "cliff" is around age 28.

But the cliff itself is somewhat of a misnomer. There appears to be a small decline in production before a sharper fall-off, so rather than a cliff with a flat surface, there's a smoother dip before the incline increases sharply.

What Age Should You Start Fading Running Backs?

Again, it depends on the player and the situation. Great players in great situations will have much more legroom. The aforementioned Henry will be 31 years old for the entirety of the 2025-26 season, yet not many have an issue with investing a premium pick in him in redraft fantasy leagues.

Derrick Henry needs to stay in Baltimore until he retires pic.twitter.com/B4uxJsMu8Y

— The Ravens Realm (@RealmRavens) January 31, 2025

And it makes perfect sense. He's still a fantastic player. His top speed is still elite (he clocked 21.72 mph max this year), and for a 250-pound running back, that's incredible. It's even more incredible that he's doing that at 30 years old. So, expecting a big production dip for him next season probably isn't reasonable.

Instead, for elite players, we should expect to see a smaller dip in advanced stats like missed tackles forced per touch, top speed, and the like before we start getting concerned. We haven't seen that yet for Henry. But for most players, it's reasonable to start getting worried earlier.

Alvin Kamara's avoided tackle rate by season, per @TruMediaSports:

2019 - 24.6%
2020 - 20.9%
2021 - 18.8%
2022 - 15.2%
2023 - 12.2%

Only five RBs had a worse rate than him last year (minimum 100 attempts) pic.twitter.com/5W0uJUm5cE

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) July 25, 2024

New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara will turn 30 before the 2025-26 season starts. His excellent play in 2024 was the result of a better offensive scheme, among other things, and his MTF/T rate improved. But the broader trend showed a steady decline in previous years, so he should be treated with some caution.

Jones is probably a bigger name to be concerned with. He had a solid season with the Vikings but continues to deal with a ton of injury issues, and he averaged his lowest yards per carry (4.46) since he entered the league, despite good offensive line play.

It wouldn't be surprising if he showed a bit more decline in 2025, and then fell off hard after that. The smooth, downward-sloping edge of the cliff can be very useful for us with players like Jones and Kamara, even if it has some bumps in it due to changes in the situation.

AARON JONES TAKES IT TO THE OUTSIDE AND WALKS IN UNTOUCHED 😱 pic.twitter.com/uFrvQREYfG

— NFL Fantasy Football (@NFLFantasy) October 20, 2024

So, we have examples of RBs still looking explosive into their 30s, as great players often do. But the sheer edge of the age cliff comes around 30 for more average players and 31-32 for the elite players. Anyone who's existed that long can attest to that as well, though. So, it's little surprise that it applies to football, too.

To avoid risk, you should try to sell off your age-29 or older running backs in dynasty and start getting more wary of them in redraft. Fading them one year early is a better value proposition than one year too late.

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