RADIO
Welcome to the first installment of what will be my weekly article series for RotoBaller, The Fantasy Matchmaker!
In this series, I will be looking at fantasy football matchups as each week of the 2023 NFL season approaches and giving you some players whose matchups we love, to the point it probably bumps them up higher for us than where that week’s positional ranking has them.
The common method for analyzing fantasy football matchups and the strength of opponents is by fantasy points allowed. How many fantasy points has that opponent been allowing to that position on average? This is something I track weekly but I take it a bit further as only looking at raw fantasy points allowed per game does not tell the whole story. It can leave out the context that is important in forecasting future matchup strength for the fantasy skill positions.
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My Methodology
Once a new season is a few weeks in, we can start using that season’s fantasy points-allowed data to predict future matchup strength. But in looking specifically at Week 1 matchups, that data is not yet available, so I developed a preseason fantasy strength of schedule (SOS) scoring system based on the previous season’s data and multiple new-season projection inputs. This allows data-driven forecasting of strength of schedule that can be utilized during the offseason and preseason.
My debut article for RotoBaller was a deep-dive look at fantasy strength of schedule, focusing on early-season schedules (Weeks 1-4). I encourage you to read that article, available here. In it, I described my process for the Preseason Fantasy SOS scoring and included full-season schedules for each team (across each position) showing the matchup strength of each opponent, Weeks 1-17. For this article, I will be excerpting only Week 1 from that data, but I will not be re-explaining the details of the process.
I do have an “in-season” SOS scoring once fantasy points start being scored, but typically I do not move fully over to that scoring system until the sample size reaches what I consider a minimum size (usually at least four games). I will explain my in-season process at that time, but for Week 1 we will be using my preseason SOS scoring system to find the tasty Week 1 matchups.
Another piece of data I am incorporating into “The Fantasy Matchmaker” that I think will be helpful is the weekly positional rankings generated by RotoBaller. RotoBaller generates an overall Top 375 player rankings (all positions) for Points Per Reception (PPR), half PPR, and Standard (no PPR) each week. As I show matchups for each position, I will break that Top 375 list down further into rankings within each position (e.g., QB1, QB2, QB3, RB1, RB2, RB3, etc.). The idea is to show each relevant skill position player’s matchup and positional rank for that week.
I encourage you to check out the RotoBaller Week 1 rankings, available here.
Remember, matchup strength alone should not significantly sway start/sit decisions. You are not starting Geno Smith over Jalen Hurts in Week 1 because Smith’s matchup is friendlier. But, showing matchup strength and positional rank together can assist with those closer, more “toss-up” decisions, where I would be willing to bump a player up or down a few spots in rank based on matchup. I will explain this further as we move through the matchups we love for Week 1.
Week 1 Fantasy Matchups: Quarterbacks
Assessing matchups for the fantasy QB position leading into Week 1 relies heavily on the format of your league. In leagues that can only start one QB, the majority of teams drafted one of the Top 10 or 12 QBs and will start them in Week 1. But not everyone. I implemented a newer QB strategy in a few of my one-QB leagues where I wait on QB during the draft, then take two QBs later and play the matchups. It is essentially the same as streaming QBs (picking up a different QB off of the waiver wire each week based largely on matchup strength) except you choose two QBs in the QB2 range to roster together. I also implement this strategy when I take the leap with someone like Anthony Richardson, or, very unsuccessfully, with Trey Lance a few years ago. Drafting a wildcard QB with a massive ceiling and mitigating some of the risk with a safer, but lower-ranked veteran later in the draft. And then there are Super Flex leagues where one of the flex spots can be (and should be) a second QB. Those are the formats for which Week 1 QB matchups are actionable:
- Streaming the QB position in one-QB leagues
- Rostering two late QBs or a risky, ceiling QB with a veteran in one-QB leagues
- Super Flex, or two-QB leagues
The following shows the projected matchup strength for the QB position in Week 1. The table includes the QB, the QB Week 1 positional rank (according to RotoBaller), the opponent, and the opponent’s projected rank versus fantasy QBs. The data is filtered from easiest to most difficult Week 1 matchup. For this and all fantasy SOS, I provide:
- 1 = Most difficult matchup (red color)
- 32 = Easiest matchup (bright green color)
- Middle of the pack: Yellow-orange color
The additional data points I am including for QBs are the projected point total in the game, the spread, and the implied total points for the QB’s team (all taken from FanDuel.com). Las Vegas has an uncanny knack for being accurate with “Over/Under” point totals and game spreads, which is useful context when projecting offensive production. For instance, a bottom-ranked QB could have a very favorable matchup but that does not mean he will be involved in a high-scoring game. The key things to look for with non-auto-start QBs are favorable matchups with higher implied team point totals.
Week 1 Quarterback Matchups We Love
Patrick Mahomes should have a big Week 1, even without Travis Kelce. He is the top-ranked QB, he faces a Lions team ranked 22nd versus QBs (which can also be stated as 11th-easiest), and the Chiefs-Lions game has the highest Over/Under on the week and an implied team total points of 31.8, tied with the Ravens for the highest. And the 5.5-point spread (favoring the Chiefs) is not so high that there is much concern the Chiefs will get out to a big enough lead to ease up on the passing gas pedal (I’m not sure the Chiefs ever would anyway).
Trevor Lawrence has a locked and loaded set of offensive weapons with Calvin Ridley off suspension, the extension to TE Evan Engram, a healthy Travis Etienne, and a solid backup RB in Tank Bigsby. Lawrence gets the fourth-easiest QB matchup at the Colts, and the Jaguars are projected for a healthy 27.3 total points (third-highest of Week 1).
Lamar Jackson might be the only QB who could slide past Mahomes into the QB1 spot in Week 1. Jackson is healthy and has his best set of offensive weapons in his career. The new offensive coordinator will not transport this team to a Tom Brady-Buccaneers pass rate, but it should be a more balanced offense than the uber-run-heavy teams of the recent past. I am very high on Jackson in 2023 as he is my QB4 in my season-long rankings (in four points for passing TDs leagues). Jackson starts the new season with one of the best possible matchups in a home tilt versus the inexperienced Texans. When I was writing up Mahomes I originally typed that the Chiefs have the highest implied total points and had to do a double-take to see the Ravens are projected for the same total. With the only double-digit spread on the schedule, the potential blowout does not concern me in the slightest because Jackson would likely have a large role in the point-scoring if the game goes that way.
Anthony Richardson is another QB whose matchup has me strongly considering ripping the band-aid off and starting him right away. There is plenty of risk but that is part of the fun in drafting him to begin with. The sub-20 points implied team total gives me pause, but the Jaguars project as the 28th-ranked matchup for QBs, and the Colts likely will be in a negative game script.
An immediate trend that jumps out? It could be a relatively tough start for the top QBs. Seven of the Top-12-ranked QBs have a bottom-half matchup. Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow, and Jalen Hurts all face Top 10 opponents according to my preseason SOS scoring. And again, from the mountaintops I scream, do not sit any of those QBs. All four of those QBs are “matchup-proof” to some extent and should start every week when healthy. And it’s Week 1 when things happen that do not look like the rest of the season.
Some of the interesting QBs ranked outside of the Top 12 in Week 1:
- Geno Smith
- Derek Carr
- Russell Wilson
- Sam Howell
Howell, Wilson, and Smith have the three easiest matchups on the week, and each of their teams’ implied point totals are at least 26 points. That may seem like an arbitrary number but it is the Week 1 cutoff for the Top 11 implied team totals. To clarify, a higher implied team total points does not directly correlate to more fantasy points for QBs. But the probability of a QB scoring more fantasy points does increase the more points his team scores. The Saints are projected to score 23.8 points based on Vegas odds, which is middle of the pack, but he has a great matchup against the 25th-ranked Titans. These four QBs fit the mold of potential streaming QBs or the QB2 on a Super Flex roster, and I like all four of them to finish slightly higher than where they are currently ranked. And all Seahawks homerism aside (if you didn’t know, I am a die-hard Seahawks fan), Geno Smith is my favorite from this group, especially with rookie WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba likely to suit up only a few weeks after wrist surgery.
Asked just now about majoring in English while at West Virginia Univ., #Seahawks QB Geno Smith said he loves to read and loves to write.
What’s he reading right now?
“Defenses.” pic.twitter.com/JD3gcqLuQd
— Gregg Bell (@gbellseattle) August 30, 2023
Not Great, Bob! Quarterbacks to Avoid
This data also is suggestive of who to not start in Week 1.
Some of the QBs you may have for that QB2 spot who I am not starting this week are Mac Jones, who is the QB31 on the week facing off against the toughest QB matchup, Kenny Pickett facing the sixth-toughest matchup in the 49ers, and then Jimmy Garappolo, CJ Stroud, and Joshua Dobbs, all three with Top 10 matchups on the road.
Week 1 Fantasy Matchups: Wide Receivers
The rest of the skill positions are a little more straightforward when looking at Week 1 matchup strength. With QBs there is not a wide range of players between the auto-starts and the desperation starts. Starting with WR, the pool of potential starters is much larger because there are just more WRs, and, depending on your league’s roster settings, you are likely able to start a minimum of three WRs every week (with the typical two RBs, two WRs, and one flex spot setup). So deciphering matchup strength has more weight in the start/sit decision-making process. The same reminder is warranted though. I have the Jets as the toughest WR matchup. The Bills play the Jets in Week 1. You are not sitting Stefon Diggs (but you should not be starting Gabe Davis). I have the Texans as the 26th-ranked WR matchup. The Ravens play the Texans in Week 1. You are not auto-starting Odell Beckham Jr. or Rashod Batement (but you should start Zay Flowers).
I am not including the Las Vegas odds data in the WR matchup table. It still matters, but not quite as much as with QBs. You can always look up at the QB table as the Vegas odds will be the same regardless of position. The following WR table shows who I consider to be the fantasy-relevant WRs, team-by-team, with Week 1 positional rank (according to RotoBaller), opponent, and opponent rank versus fantasy WRs.
Week 1 WR Matchups We Love
Chris Olave starts his sophomore campaign with a QB upgrade in Derek Carr and the easiest WR matchup with the Titans. I have been hyping up Olave all offseason. While he did not blaze a path to fantasy stardom during his rookie season, his peripheral metrics were elite for a first-year player. RotoBaller ranks Olave as the WR13 for Week 1, which is essentially where I have him season-long, so there is no question you are starting him. But no need to temper any expectations as he should shine and could easily finish in the Top 10.
Jahan Dotson gets the second-easiest WR matchup against the Cardinals in Week 1, and with the injury issues with Terry McLaurin, Dotson has a chance for a big 2023 debut. McLaurin (toe injury) did return to practice on a limited basis this week, but I think Dotson is ready to take over as the WR1 for the Commanders. Dotson turned in a solid rookie season, but mostly on the back of a 12.3% TD rate. Dotson’s 0.16 targets per route run and 15.6% target share did not stand out, but he excelled in some promising and predictive areas. According to Reception Perception, Dotson was successful against press-man coverage at a 78.9% rate (87th percentile), regularly gained separation, and showed he could win on the outside at the NFL level.
Jahan Dotson is a second year wide receiver who flashed as a rookie with five games above 16PPR points, has gotten all the hype in camp, his main completion for targets is currently injured with turf toe…
and you can still draft him at WR33.
DRAFT JAHAN DOTSON! pic.twitter.com/7MbYOOZYlA
— Hutchinson Brown (@hutchinsonb_ff) August 31, 2023
The Seattle Seahawks “Big Three” open up at home against the Rams, their once-formidable (now, not so much) division rival. Regardless of where these teams have been over the years, their head-to-head matchups are usually dogfights that stay close. I don’t think that will be the case in Week 1, as the Rams have one of the most inexperienced secondaries in the NFL. Based on Average Draft Position (ADP), you are starting D.K. Metcalf, and you should do so with confidence. The only concern with a “Big Three” is who will be the beneficiary of the 29th-ranked WR matchup. Two of the three WRs could reasonably put up Top 24 numbers, but it is not often that three WRs from the same team can do so. I would start Tyler Lockett comfortably as a WR2 or flex. Smith-Njigba is more risky as a rookie coming off of an injury, but, to borrow a massively overused cliché, the kid looks to be built differently. In leagues with three WR slots or multiple flexes, I’m taking a shot on Smith-Njigba in this tasty home matchup.
A few other rookies I would consider starting in Week 1 based on their matchup are Zay Flowers and Marvin Mims Jr. Flowers is home against the 26th-ranked Texans and Mims Jr., who will be thrust into a large role alongside Courtland Sutton immediately, will be running routes at home against the 27th-ranked Raiders. Flowers was likely drafted, but Mims Jr. could be sitting on waivers depending on your league size. In Yahoo leagues, Mims Jr. is available in 63% of leagues. If you have a bench spot and he is available you should “beat the waiver wire” and pick him up now, or at least add him to your players to watch, as his Week 1 matchup and likely starter’s volume could make him a hot waiver commodity in Week 2.
Marvin Mims to Marcus Peters on Sunday pic.twitter.com/q4xe0BARqi
— Michael 🇲🇽 (@RespectMyCos) September 6, 2023
Skyy Moore gets the 24th-ranked Lions to open the 2023 NFL season. The Chiefs WR room has been a mysterious puzzle that no one has won since Tyreek Hill went to the Dolphins, but my money is on Moore ascending to the top of their WR pecking order this season. And with Travis Kelce out for at least Week 1, Moore has the opportunity to put his stamp on that immediately. As he should be, Moore is rostered in more Yahoo fantasy leagues than Kadarius “fools gold” Toney at 73% so he was likely drafted in your league. But if you were the team that drafted him, he’s worth flex consideration in Week 1. You don’t want to get too cute in Week 1 and there is plenty of risk with Moore, but this game could be a shoot out and how fun would it be to hit on a player like Moore in Week 1, who falls into the “post-hype sleeper” category in 2023.
As with the QB position, the Top 12 WRs are riddled with tough opening matchups. Eight of the Top 12 WRs have a Top 12 (toughest) matchup. Just look at the bright green WR ranks next to darker red opponents. You are starting every single one of them, but there are some names to leave on your bench.
Not Great, Bob! Wide Receivers to Avoid
Marquise Brown is on the road against the 12th-ranked Commanders, with a projected starter in Josh Dobbs who joined the team a matter of days ago. You likely aren’t faced with this decision outside of deeper leagues, but avoid the temptation to start Nico Collins. If Collins is going to break out as the Texans’ WR1 this season, it will not be Week 1 with the sixth-toughest matchup at the Ravens (also see CJ Stroud discussion above). Van Jefferson may be an underrated WR, and he will see more looks if Cooper Kupp is out, but the Seahawks have a feisty, ball-hawking secondary that is even tougher to beat at home. Leave Jefferson on your bench for this one.
Week 1 Fantasy Matchups: Running Backs
The following RB table shows who I consider to be the fantasy-relevant RBs, team-by-team, with Week 1 positional rank (according to RotoBaller), opponent, and opponent rank versus fantasy RBs.
Week 1 Running Back Matchups We Love
I love the matchups for the Commanders and Broncos RBs. The only issue is we do not know how the RBs in those backfields will be deployed in Week 1. There is speculation that Antonio Gibson will retake the lead RB role with Washington (he is the much better RB) and may see an uptick in passing volume, but we just don’t know yet. I have been drafting Javonte Williams everywhere at his discounted price (he led all RBs in targets per route run last year) but he will need to buck the trend of how long it takes for RBs to return to form following ACL injuries. Williams is not starting the season on the PUP list, meaning he is healthy enough to play, but is he ready for the lead-back role yet? The talk in Denver is that he looks great and is ready to go, but I have to think a very capable Samaje Perine will get plenty of work early in the season. I am starting Gibson and Williams over their respective teammates, but hopefully in the flex spot. One positive about this matchup is we should have a very good idea about these backfields heading into Week 2.
J.K. Dobbins is another RB I have heavily targeted in drafts. Dobbins went through his “Is it too early for him to be effective” last season and should be 100% healthy. There is always a concern with a Ravens RB with how often Lamar Jackson takes off with the rock, but Dobbins is the clear lead back on this team, and he should feast at home versus the 30th-ranked Texans.
Who were the most Explosive and least Explosive runners in 2022 on a per carry basis?
Runs over 15 yards per attempt
Most 🧨
James Cook .12
Breece Hall .10
JK Dobbins .10
Tony Pollard .09
D’Andre Swift .08
Rhamondre Stevenson .08
Nick Chubb .08Least 🙊
Samaje Perine .01… pic.twitter.com/0c8QbDeaR5
— Jeremy (@PopesFFH) August 31, 2023
Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet have a dream matchup in Week 1 versus the 28th-ranked Rams. Okay, now maybe my homerism is starting to bubble over, but, objectively, the entire Seahawks offense has a soft landing at home against the Rams. Walker is a must-start RB2 but I think Charbonnet is worth consideration in the flex, especially if you have multiple flex spots. Both of these RBs will get work and be fantasy-relevant all season when healthy. Yes, we all wish for both players’ sakes that Charbonnet went to a more RB-needy team in the draft. But that ship has sailed and we’ll have to project this duo every week. And for this first week, I am trying to get both RBs into my starting lineup.
Not Great, Bob! Running Backs to Avoid
Najee Harris is the first player in this article who should be an auto-start based on what you paid (overpaid) to draft him, but I am hesitant to start. Harris gets the toughest RB matchup in the 49ers and I do not see him having much success against that defensive front. The 49ers are a road favorite and I expect the Steelers to be in a negative game script, which would favor Jaylen Warren’s game. You probably have no choice and I realize suggesting to sit Harris walks on the “getting too cute” line, but if I had any Harris shares (I don’t) I would be nervous.
The Eagles’ backfield starts with a road matchup with the ninth-ranked Patriots. The matchup and the crowded, murky environment of this backfield have me trying to avoid each of them. Although not as pricey as Najee Harris, you likely are starting D’Andre Swift, but I am not considering Gainwell or Penny outside of the deepest leagues.
Week 1 Fantasy Matchups: Tight Ends
The following TE table shows who I consider to be the fantasy-relevant TEs, team-by-team, with Week 1 positional rank (according to RotoBaller), opponent, and opponent rank versus fantasy TEs.
Week 1 Tight End Matchups We Love
One of my favorite under-the-radar, sleeper plays of Week 1 is Juwan Johnson in the Super Dome versus the Titans, the projected easiest TE matchup. A TE you can likely grab off of waivers (available in 55% of Yahoo leagues), Johnson is a solid play if you waited on or are streaming the TE position. At TE16 according to RotoBaller, I am starting him over some of the TEs in that range, including Cole Kmet (TE12), Chigoziem Okonkwo (TE13), and Greg Dulcich (TE17).
Derek Carr told his brother David to make sure he drafts Juwan Johnson in fantasy this year. I’ve been aggressively hammering him in drafts lately. WR skills at the TE position.pic.twitter.com/AQQqTdivy3
— Ben Cummins (@BenCumminsFF) August 25, 2023
Tyler Higbee gets the 21st-ranked Seahawks and should be the biggest beneficiary if Cooper Kupp misses time. Higbee earned 108 targets last season, including seven games with eight or more targets. He only scored three TDs for a 2.8% TD rate, which screams regression this season. TE is one of the Seahawks’ weaknesses on defense, and a likely negative game script for the Rams could lead to a TE1 outing (Top 12) for Higbee.
Jake Ferguson is the TE1 in Dallas after Dalton Schultz signed in Houston. The Cowboys have been a TE-friendly offense over the last few seasons, averaging a 20%+ TE target share. There is a bit of a leap of faith with Ferguson as he showed some flashes in 2022 but we have not seen him in a lead role yet. But with a matchup with the 26th-ranked Giants in Week 1 he is another good option if you waited on TE or are streaming the position.
Not Great, Bob! Tight Ends to Avoid
Dalton Schultz has done just enough in the fantasy realm to carry some name value, and his presence as one of the only proven pass-catching options on the Texans might be tempting. But he is a sit in Week 1 against the top-ranked Ravens.
David Njoku is another TE on the fringe of every week start status that should ride your bench in Week 1. Njoku faces the sixth-ranked Bengals and is one of the TEs I have lower than the RotoBaller rank of TE9 on the week.
Chigoziem Okonkwo did not run a ton of routes in 2022, but his advanced metrics were impressive on the routes he did run. Okonkwo is a borderline TE1 with a brutal matchup at the Saints, the third-ranked TE matchup.
Week 1 Fantasy Matchups: Defense
Let me start by stating my strategy in leagues with DSTs, a strategy that I wholeheartedly recommend to everyone. Please do not reach for one of the better NFL defenses in your fantasy draft. Sure, taking the Eagles DST in the 12th round might look good at the time, and the opportunity cost of that selection (other players you did not select in that range because you reached for a DST) may seem low. But the probability that DST will provide a significant edge over the matchup-based streamed DST in any given week is not that high. Yes, there will be weeks where the move will look correct, and those DSTs will probably be at the top of season-long DST PPG scoring. But spending that draft capital essentially locks you into starting that DST every week other than their bye. And carrying two DSTs to account for bad matchups is not a good idea either. That second DST will be taking up a roster spot that could be better spent on stashing Tyjae Spears before he breaks out this season.
My strategy is fairly simple. I look at the Week 1 matchups and take a DST in the last two rounds with a good matchup in Week 1 (and ideally a few good matchups after that). I then stream as needed for the rest of the season. With that said, the following DST table shows each DST and their opponent, and opponent rank versus fantasy DSTs. I have included Week 2 with the DST data as the DST streaming game needs to look ahead.
The top DSTs based on matchup who you can likely get off of waivers for Week 1 are the Commanders, the Saints, and the Seahawks. The Commanders are the best play in Week 1, but the Saints have the most favorable early season schedule and could man your DST slot for multiple weeks.
I wanted to provide DST data as it is something I project and will track throughout the season. But for more detail about DST streaming, I will point you to the excellent weekly DST Streaming article authored by RotoBaller’s Saleh Awwad (@SalehAwwad_ on Twitter/X).
Thank you so much for reading! I love diving deep into the data in search of statistics and combinations of statistics that can help you make the best decisions possible in the maze of fantasy football decisions. If you have any questions about this article or general questions about fantasy football, reach out to me on Twitter (@MunderDifflinFF).
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