RADIO
Rishi Patel looks at the projected fantasy football production for the 2020 Tampa Bay Buccaneers to identify potential values and busts.
After a lengthy series detailing the fantasy values of countless players, we have reached the final team: the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Bucs have been irrelevant for as long as many can remember and for good reason, they haven’t made the postseason since after the 2007 season.
Last season was memorable for Tampa, but not in a positive way. Former QB Jameis Winston heaved 30 touchdowns…and 30+ picks too. This means he made history for all the wrong reasons. The turnover-prone Winston has now been replaced with former New England Patriots QB Tom Brady, which means the Bucs went from a mediocre QB to getting the GOAT through a shocking offseason move. Winston couldn’t be more proud of himself.
Suddenly, the Bucs are looking like legit contenders, with Super Bowl hype coming to a team that barely gets mentioned otherwise. This is for good reason, as Tampa has a rising defense, an offense loaded with multiple playmakers, and a six-time Super Bowl champ. This squad has plenty of fantasy-relevant players, so let’s break down their values.
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Quarterback
Tom Brady is more of a fantasy brand name at this point in his career. Now 43-years-old, the legendary signal-caller has not been playing at the level he was before. Father Time eventually catches up to everyone, but Brady has been doing a good job of fending it off (for now). As for 2020, the veteran could provide some fantasy value for owners.
In his last season with the Patriots in 2019, the accomplished QB recorded 4,057 pass yards, 24 touchdowns, eight picks, 6.6 yards per pass attempt, 253.6 pass yards per game, an 88-quarterback rating, 34 rush yards, and three rush touchdowns. The California native finished 12th among fantasy QBs.
He also finished fourth in pass attempts (613), 27th in completion percentage (27.8%), seventh in pass yards, 13th in pass touchdowns, 18th in picks, 13th in pass yards per game, and 18th in quarterback rating. The QB had 419 on-target throws, which ranked seventh among NFL signal-callers.
While it’s encouraging to see Brady rank decent in pass yards, passing touchdowns, passing yards per game, and have a low number of picks, there is some concern. The veteran had 118 bad throws, which was ranked third among NFL QBs. His percentage of poor throws per pass attempt was 20.6, which ranked fourth. Finally, his percentage of on-target throws per pass attempt was 73.1, which ranked 22nd. In addition, the aging QB doesn’t offer of a rushing upside.
All in all, there are pros and cons to having Tom Brady as your fantasy QB in 2020. The presence of elite pass-catchers and his effective conditioning should help the Michigan product produce some numbers. Based on his pros, cons, and 2019 ranking, Brady can be viewed as a top-12 fantasy QB heading into 2020, which means he can be a QB1 in larger redraft leagues.
Running Back
Running Back is the most confusing position on the Bucs as they have a few backs who could emerge as a terrific fantasy player. Ronald Jones II brings the most value, as coach Bruce Arians stated the 23-year-old will be taking the role of the lead back.
In his second NFL season last year, Jones improved his stats in a stellar way. He recorded 172 rush attempts, 724 rush yards, six rush touchdowns, 4.2 rush yards per attempt, 45.3 rush yards per game, 31 receptions, and 309 receiving yards. He also had 2.4 rush yards after contact per rush and 23 broken tackles. The USC product finished 27th among fantasy backs. With rookie Ke’Shawn Vaughn and veteran LeSean McCoy right behind Jones on the depth chart, there is no reason to believe they can’t cut in on his production because they want to carve out a bigger role for themselves. It’s a possibility the hot hand could get more playing time too. Therefore, though Jones is the starter, he’s likely going to have the two other RBs “breathing down his back” for a chance to take over as the RB1. Because of this, take caution when drafting Jones and consider him an RB2 in 16+ team redraft leagues at best.
In Round 3 of this past draft, Tampa also scooped up RB Ke’Shawn Vaughn out of Vanderbilt. The 23-year-old will look to seal a big role for himself on this offense in the upcoming season. The Tennessee native played four seasons of college ball, two at Illinois and two at Vanderbilt.
His two best seasons came during his junior and senior years with Vandy. In his 2018 junior year, the back notched 1,244 rush yards, 7.9 rush yards per attempt, 12 rush touchdowns, 13 receptions, 170 receiving yards, and two receiving touchdowns. In his senior season last year, Vaughn accumulated 1,028 rush yards, 5.2 rush yards per attempt, nine rush touchdowns, 28 receptions, 270 receiving yards, and one receiving touchdown.
Per Bleacher Report, Vaughn brings a strong build (5’10”, 218 lbs), is not easily brought down, and can take off down the field. Therefore, the Vanderbilt product does bring huge potential for this Bucs run game as he recorded solid rushing stats in college and possesses good receiving abilities. He was compared to Buffalo Bills running back Devin Singletary.
Vaughn’s role may not start off big, as Jones is the clear starter. The rookie must work for more playing time and prove to coach Arians that he can be a lead back too. Because of this, consider Vaughn as only an RB3/flex in 14+ team redraft leagues. He has room to improve his value depending on how much he plays during the season.
Finally, the Bucs just signed veteran Shady McCoy, who played for the Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs last year. The veteran must fight with Vaughn and Jones for a large role, and that does not bode well since he is now 32-years-old and on the wrong side of 30.
His numbers have also declined the past two seasons. Last year with KC, the Pennsylvania native compiled 465 rush yards, four rush touchdowns, 4.6 rush yards per attempt, 35.8 rush yards per game, 28 receptions, 181 receiving yards per game, and one receiving touchdown in 13 games.
Though he brings proven talent and experience, this RBs room is simply too crowded now and three different backs sustaining solid fantasy production every week is simply not realistic. Only consider McCoy as depth in deep redraft leagues.
Wide Receiver
It’s usually rare for a team to have two top-10 performing fantasy receivers, but that’s what the Bucs have in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, who are the top two wideouts on this team and the only fantasy-relevant ones.
Godwin paced the team in receptions, targets, yards, and touchdowns last year. The 24-year-old had a breakout season in his third year in which he racked up 86 receptions, 121/630 targets (19.2%), 1,333 yards, nine touchdowns, 15.5 yards per catch, and 95.2 yards per game in 14 total games. The 2017-pick finished second among all fantasy receivers, only coming behind elite Saints WR Michael Thomas.
Among NFL pass-catchers, the Philadelphia native finished third in yards, 13th in yards per reception, sixth in touchdowns, eighth in receptions per game (6.1), and second in yards per game.
Meanwhile, it was another casual 1,000-yard season for sixth-year receiver Mike Evans in 2019. The big-bodied pass-catcher recorded terrific stats as well, it wasn’t only Godwin. The Texas native had 67 receptions, 118/630 targets (18.7%), 1,157 yards, 17.3 yards per catch, eight touchdowns, and 89 yards per game in 13 games. Evans finished eighth among fantasy receivers. Among NFL pass-catchers, he ranked 13th in yards, sixth in yards per catch, 10th in touchdowns, and fourth in yards per game.
Both Evans and Godwin had top-10 fantasy finishes at their position last year and ranked in the top-five in receiving yards per game among wideouts. The presence of Tom Brady instead of Jameis Winston does not change their fantasy values for 2020 and both should see a huge number of targets and overall production considering the WRs below them on the depth chart are unknown or unproven players. Consider both solid WR1s in redraft and overall top-10 fantasy receivers heading into 2020.
Tight End
Tom Brady’s old buddy Rob Gronkowski is making a return to the NFL after a one-year retirement. Like his former teammate, Gronk will be donning a new uniform in 2020 too. He will also be atop the TEs depth chart on Tampa. Last we saw of the goofy player was in the 2018 season with the Patriots. That was not a productive season by his standards, as the Arizona product reeled in 47 receptions, 72 targets, 682 yards, 14.5 yards per catch, and three touchdowns in 13 games. In nine NFL seasons, the TE finished with his fourth-lowest reception, yards, and target total, along with tying his lowest touchdown total.
Gronk still finished a respectable 11th among fantasy tight ends in 2018. The reason the New York native retired after the 2018 season was because of the toll numerous injuries throughout his career took on him. There should be no doubt the TE can still play and be effective on the field, but it’s important to consider he’s 31-years-old, has logged a lot of hits on his body, and is injury-prone. Because of this, it’s best to consider Gronkowski a TE1 in only large redraft leagues of 12-14 teams. This is also considering the Bucs have two other capable and younger tight ends who can pick up the slack and targets.
Speaking of other Bucs tight ends, O.J. Howard is still on the team despite trade rumors swirling around him this offseason. The Alabama product did record 34 receptions, 53/630 targets (8.4%), 459 yards, 13.5 yards per catch, and one touchdown in 14 games last season. He only finished 31st among fantasy tight ends though. During his three-year career, the 25-year-old recorded his lowest touchdown total in 2019.
Among NFL tight ends, the Alabama native finished 18th in reception yards per game (32.8), 28th in receptions, 16th in yards, and 16th in yards per reception. The presence of Rob Gronkowski hurts Howard’s value, especially considering Gronk and Brady have a history of playing together and therefore more chemistry. Consider O.J. Howard a TE2 in 12-14 team redraft leagues.
Finally, the Bucs’ third-string tight end is Cameron Brate, but he is certainly not an unknown player. The Harvard product has the capability to thrive and finished with similar stats to Howard last season. The 29-year-old compiled 36 receptions, 55/630 targets (8.7%), 311 yards, 8.6 yards per catch, and four touchdowns. He finished slightly higher than Howard among fantasy tight ends, ranking at 24th.
The Illinois native is the TE3 on the team, so his fantasy value is capped because of his likely small role. Only consider him a TE3/depth in 12-14 team redraft leagues.
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