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John's top NFL DFS lineup picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, and Sunday Night Football -Vikings vs Packers showdown slate. His Week 17 SNF daily fantasy football advice.
Welcome to Week 17 and Happy New Year, RotoBallers! We've been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues tonight with Sunday Night Football. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Sunday Night Football showdown slate on January 2nd. These lineups can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
Editor's Note: The FFPC Baby Gorilla Tournament is now open, featuring a $100,000 grand prize and a $675,450 total prize pool! This 12-team, Tight End Premium contest uses a 20-round draft format, with the overall winners determined by total points scored during Weeks 15–17. Get $25 to use toward your first entry by signing up through our link. Grab your team now! Sign Up Now!
DFS Captain/MVP Plays
Aaron Rodgers ($16,800 DK, $17,000 FD)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: 3,689 passing yards, 33 touchdowns, four interceptions.
- Offensive Pass DVOA: 40.1% (2nd), per Football Outsiders.
- Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 2.2% (11th), per Football Outsiders.
I start this slate off with the "Bad Man", Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers is having another fantastic season in what should lead to his second consecutive MVP. He absolutely dominated the Vikings in Week 11, throwing for 385 yards and four touchdowns in the eventual loss. However, it's hard to see a scenario where the Packers don't absolutely dominate this game, and with Rodgers chasing the MVP, you'd have to think he's gonna put up the stats to reach value tonight.
Dalvin Cook ($15,600 DK, $14,000 FD)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: 109 targets, 70 receptions, 940 receiving yards, six touchdowns.
- 2021 Data: 74,1% attempt rate, 72.58% red-zone attempt rate, 92.31% attempt rate within the five-yard line, 12% target rate, 2.5% red-zone target rate.
- Offensive Rush DVOA: -16.8% (27th), per Football Outsiders.
- Opposing Defense Rush DVOA: 1% (31st)
While both 1.5x options I like for tonight's showdown are rather expensive, it's for good reason. The Vikings announced they're starting Sean Mannion tonight, so it's hard to think that Cook won't be heavily relied on. Cook ran for 86 yards and a touchdown while catching three of four targets for 29 yards in Week 11 against the Packers, and he should see plenty of volume tonight in a very good matchup against a not-so-good Packers run defense.
Other Captains/MVPs: Davante Adams, Tyler Conklin, Packers D/ST
DFS Flex Plays
Sean Mannion ($6,000 DK, $5,000 FD)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: No Data.
- Offensive Pass DVOA: 25.3% (10th), per Football Outsiders.
- Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 4.3% (14th), per Football Outsiders.
The only reason I'm recommending Mannion tonight is due to his extremely cheap price on both sites. This will be Mannion's first start since December of 2019, where he completed 12 of 21 passes for 126 yards and two interceptions. I don't have very high expectations for him tonight, but at such a cheap price he could be a valuable play in order to fit multiple studs in. I definitely prefer this play on FanDuel, but wouldn't be against playing him with Conklin on DraftKings in order to fit in guys like Rodgers and Cook.
Aaron Jones ($9,000 DK, $12,500 FD)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: 163 attempts, 723 rushing yards, 10 touchdowns.
- 2021 Data: 44.29% attempt rate, 43.06% red-zone attempt rate, 35.29% attempt rate within the five-yard line, 12.8% target rate, 14.61% red-zone target rate, two end zone targets.
- Offensive Rush DVOA: 1% (6th), per Football Outsiders.
- Opposing Defense Rush DVOA: -4.9% (22nd), per Football Outsiders.
I really like Aaron Jones in this spot in a plus matchup against the Vikings. While I think Aaron Rodgers will certainly get his points, I wouldn't be surprised if we see a similar situation to Week 2 against Detroit, where Jones logged three receiving touchdowns. The weather is going to be around five degrees in Green Bay tonight, so with the Vikings defense worn out and the Packers up big, I very well could see Aaron Jones and partner A.J. Dillon closing this one out.
Other Flex Options: Davante Adams, Justin Jefferson, KJ Obsorn, Marquez Valdes-Scantling
DFS Value Plays
Tyler Conklin ($5,600 DK, $7,000 FD)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: 74 targets, 54 receptions, 540 receiving yards, three touchdowns.
- 2021 Data: 14.23% target rate, 23.19% red-zone target rate, seven end zone targets.
- Individual Matchup (vs Krys Barnes): 18% target rate per route covered, 90% catch rate, 0.33 fantasy points allowed per route covered.
I'm going with the old adage of "backup quarterbacks love tight ends". As I mentioned with Jones, it should be extremely cold in Green Bay tonight, making this a very solid opportunity for Conklin in the short passing game as a safety blanket for Mannion. He draws a solid matchup against Krys Barnes who allows a 90% catch rate, so as long as Conklin is able to get open, he should be able to hit value. Conklin grabbed all three of his targets for 35 yards against Green Bay in Week 11, and very well could produce better tonight. NOTE: Conklin practiced in full on Friday (hand injury), but carries a questionable tag into this one. Stay aware of his availability tonight before you lock him in your lineups.
Greg Joseph ($3,200 DK, $9,000 FD)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: 36 field goals attempted, 31 field goals made, 31/35 PAT.
While I don't necessarily love the kicking conditions in Green Bay tonight, I have to rock with Joseph tonight. While I don't expect the Vikings to light the scoreboard up with Sean Mannion, guys like Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, and co. should be able to get the Vikings down the field a few times, allowing for Joseph to knock down a field goal or two, which is all we need. Joseph is K3 in fantasy this season, and I'll need his help securing my fantasy championship tonight, so I'm hoping he does well for a multitude of reasons.
Other Value Plays: A.J. Dillon, Mason Crosby, Packers D/ST
I hope you had a great New Year, enjoy your Sunday night, and good luck everyone!
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