Stop that Hype Train! Derrius Guice

August 23, 2019

Mid-round running backs can take your team from a middle of the table team to a contender. Derrius Guice is one RB who has seen his preseason value and rising ADP get out of control. Richard King takes a look at why people need to start jumping off of the Guice Hype Train this season.

The Washington Redskins are a team that looks to be devoid of fantasy options that get owners clambering over each other to select. Currently, there are a number of question marks over the offense- far more questions than answers in fact. However, that doesn't seem to have stopped the hype around Derrius Guice who is still being selected in the seventh round according to fantasy football calculator.

Guice is coming off a season-ending injury in the preseason of 2018. Now he is getting back to full health he should see plenty of time on the field during the season. However, can he be productive enough to return his current draft day value of the seventh round?

In this article, I explore the issues that Guice is going to face in order to be fantasy relevant, and why that means that he is being over-hyped.

Questions on Guice's Situation

Who Is Going To Throw The Ball?

The biggest impact of any offense is who is leading the team. That is one of the biggest areas for concern for the Redskins. Alex Smith is still unlikely to play this season after suffering a horrific injury last season, meaning the team has the option between journeyman Case Keenum and rookie Dwayne Haskins. Keenum has bounced around the league since entering it, but after a successful showing with the Minnesota Vikings, he then struggled in Denver, a team that was hindered by several injuries and offensive line problems. Haskins as a rookie quarterback is also likely to struggle, as most rookies do, and there hasn't been anything shown in the preseason that would change that thought. The Redskins could well, therefore, struggle to keep defenses honest and stop them from stacking the box.

Impact on Guice: Inconsistent quarterback play is going to hurt Guice's ability to be fantasy relevant.

How Effective Are The Guys Blocking For Him?

According to ProFootballFocus the Redskins have one of the better offensive line units in the league- and would be even better is they had all of their best players in each position available to play. That is, however, the issue that faces the Redskins. They have struggled with keeping their players healthy, and their star tackle Trent Williams is still unhappy in his current situation. The Redskins will be hoping that they are going to be able to keep their starters healthy, something that would help their quarterback, and their running backs.

Impact on Guice: An effective offensive line should help create holes for Guice

Is He Even Healthy?

This is one of the biggest issue's that I have in where Guice is being selected, I'm not sure that he is able to actually be on the field for long stretches this season. Guice missed his entire rookie season, after tearing his ACL, and has had several setbacks to his recovery. Guice is yet to make an appearance in preseason (although is expected to appear in the preseason game against the Atlanta Falcons). We also have no idea if the running back is going to be able to deal with the workload required of a lead NFL back.

Impact on Guice: Signs point to big question marks over Guice's health

Is He Even The Starter?

Leading on from the question of his health, the Redskins movement in the offseason would point to the fact that they aren't sure what they have in Guice. The team renewed the contract of Adrian Peterson, who had an effective season with Washington in 2018. The team still have Samaje Perine on their books, as well as Chris Thompson, who have both had injury struggles of their own. They also added Bryce Love in the draft who suffered a torn ACL in his final college season. Peterson especially is a concern, as given what he has achieved in his career he is unlikely to have returned to be sitting on the bench all season.

Impact on Guice: A number of running backs available mean that Guice could well be part of a timeshare, especially with Peterson's performance in the offense last season

Conclusion

Looking at the situation in Washington, I don't see how Guice is being taken in the seventh round. Given the number of question marks that exist in the situation, he finds himself in. There is also a limited ceiling to consider, given the struggles that Washington is likely to suffer this season on offense. I would rather select Rashaad Penny, who may be the second option in Seattle, but the number of touches available means that he has a great opportunity to be effective. Similarly, I feel there is a similar risk to the situation that faces Ronald Jones II, the difference between the two is that Jones is in a less crowded backfield on a team that will score points- and is available a full two rounds later.

STOP THAT HYPE TRAIN!!!

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