RADIO
Elliott looks at pitchers with surprising starts recently. These SPs could emerge as fantasy baseball waiver wire targets for Week 5 in 2025, or just mirages.
Welcome back to the "Are You For Real?" series as we dive into Week 5 of the 2025 fantasy baseball season. For those who are not familiar, this is a weekly column where we take a look at starting pitchers who had surprisingly good starts over the past week and put them under the microscope to determine whether they're legitimate or just smoke and mirrors.
We've got three interesting arms to look at that had great starts over the weekend. First, we'll look at Washington's Jake Irvin, who dominated the Mets on Friday. Then, we'll deep dive into Simeon Woods Richardson's dismantling of the Angels. Then, we'll finish with a breakdown of Jose Quintana's hot start in Milwaukee.
Roster percentages are taken from Yahoo! and are accurate as of April 28.
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Jake Irvin, Washington Nationals - 29% Rostered
2025 Stats (prior to this start): 29.1 IP, 3.68 ERA, 4.66 FIP, 17.1 percent K-BB rate
4/25 vs. NYM: 7 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 4 K
Irvin has been dealing as of late, posting a 1.31 ERA and 9:5 K:BB over his last three starts, including this seven-inning gem against the Mets. He’s 2-0 and has allowed just three earned runs over that stretch as well. Has Irvin turned a corner, or is this the same old right-hander?
Originally a fourth-round pick by Washington back in 2018, Irvin wasn’t much of a prospect coming up through the Nats' system. He works with a five-pitch mix consisting of a four-seam fastball, curveball, sinker, changeup, and cutter. Irvin has made some changes to his pitch mix this season as well, leaning more heavily on his curveball and relying on his fastball less often.
Irvin threw his curveball 43 percent of the time against the Mets on Friday, his highest usage all season. Overall, he’s thrown his curveball a career-high 38.3 percent of the time. Long his primary breaking ball, Irvin’s curveball appears to have changed from last season to this year.
Last season, Irvin averaged 81.1 mph with his curveball and had 44.4 inches of drop. This year, he is averaging 78.4 mph and has a 48.4-inch drop. Let’s compare an Irvin curveball from this year to last year.
2024:
2025:
It has a slightly more pronounced loop and additional drops and breaks this year compared to 2024. Opponents have really struggled against Irvin’s curveball as well. Batters are hitting just .150 against the pitch with a .267 SLG and .213 wOBA. The expected stats aren’t much better either, with batters posting a .206 xBA, .335 xSLG, and .261 xwOBA.
His whiff rate is up as well, at a solid 30.8 percent this year. Strikeouts likely aren’t going to be Irvin’s game, despite his recent nine-strikeout performance in Coors Field. Don’t expect big strikeout numbers going forward.
His best pitch is a curveball, and those don’t tend to put up strikeout numbers like other breaking balls and off-speed pitch types.
In throwing his curveball more often, Irvin has begun relying on his fastball less. He threw his four-seamer 37.7 percent of the time last season, but has thrown it just 28.9 percent of the time this season. A 92.2 mph offering, his velocity is down this season. Irvin averaged 93.9 mph with the pitch last season.
Opponents have hit the pitch well, posting a .297 AVG, .541 SLG, and .387 wOBA off Irvin’s four-seamer this season.
Somehow, the expected stats are even worse, with Irvin sporting a .330 xBA, .707 xSLG, and .453 xwOBA against his four-seamer. Those are MVP-caliber numbers, and there’s no reason to think Irvin’s fastball would perform much better going forward. He has below-average velocity, average spin, and middling movement with the pitch.
It’s simply not a good offering and is a liability in Irvin’s arsenal.
At least Irvin has a second fastball in his sinker, a pitch he’s thrown 16.9 percent of the time this season. A 91.7 mph offering, batters have struggled much more against Irvin’s sinker compared to his four-seamer. Opponents have hit just .167 with a .167 SLG and .204 wOBA against Irvin’s sinker this season.
Unfortunately, the expected stats portend doom. Or, at least, worse outcomes for Irvin.
He has a .342 xBA, .506 xSLG, and .396 xwOBA against his sinker this year. Batters are pulverizing the ball for a 93.3 mph average exit velocity. Throw in a 9-degree average launch angle against and a 40 percent line-drive rate, and it’s a wonder how Irvin has a .188 BABIP off his sinker thus far. There’s no chance that number holds over time, and Irvin’s sinker could be a liability going forward as well.
Speaking of BABIP, Irvin’s been on the fortunate side of things all season. He has a .235 BABIP against despite a .272 career BABIP against and a career-low 40.8 percent ground-ball rate. He’s also coasted thanks to an unsustainable 84.5 percent LOB rate, which should normalize to around 70-75 percent over time.
Irvin may have an impressive 3.19 ERA, but his 5.01 xERA and 4.20 FIP suggest that that number should rise. Based on the quality of stuff in this profile, I’d have to agree.
Verdict:
Irvin seems to have reworked his curveball, but it’s not enough to move the needle. He’s still overly reliant on a pair of bad fastballs that get hit hard by opponents. Irvin has been a home run machine throughout his MLB career, and that hasn’t changed this year as he’s surrendered 1.47 HR/9 through six starts.
He’s gotten by thanks to an abnormally low .235 BABIP and an abnormally high 84.5 percent LOB rate. Both of those numbers should normalize towards league average, and when they do, his ERA will rise in turn. He’s a low-end, matchups-based streamer at best.
Simeon Woods Richardson, Minnesota Twins - 3% Rostered
2025 Stats (prior to this start): 19 IP, 4.74 ERA, 4.37 FIP, 14.9 percent K-BB rate
4/26 vs. LAA: 5.1 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 7 K
Woods Richardson was excellent on Saturday, limiting Los Angeles to just one run over five and a third innings while picking up his second victory of the season. Woods Richardson lowered his ERA to 4.07 following this start and has a 3.07 ERA over his last three starts.
Could Woods Richardson be a fantasy asset, or is he best left on the wire?
Originally a second-round pick by the Mets back in 2018, Woods Richardson had some decent prospect hype attached to his name coming out of high school. He was traded once from the Mets to the Blue Jays for Marcus Stroman, and then from the Blue Jays to the Twins for Jose Berrios. Woods Richardson works with a four-pitch mix consisting of a four-seam fastball, slider, curveball, and changeup.
A classic arsenal. But how effective can it be?
Woods Richardson relied heavily on his curveball in this start, throwing it 24.4 percent of the time against the Angels. This is actually the second-highest curveball usage rate in any given start of Woods Richardson’s young career, and his curveball usage has been trending upwards.
He only threw the curveball 8.5 percent of the time in his first start of the season, but usage has increased gradually and is now at 24.4 percent.
A 77.4 mph offering, Woods Richardson’s curveball has relatively average spin and movement. It’s not a standout in measurables, although batters have struggled with the pitch this season. Opponents are hitting just .143 with a .143 SLG and .199 wOBA off Woods Richardson’s curveball.
Those are some strong numbers, but the expected stats suggest that Woods Richardson has been lucky with these results. He has a .295 xBA, .337 xSLG, and .330 xwOBA against the curveball this season.
Also, you want to know how many whiffs Woods Richardson got with his curveball against the Angels? Zip zilch nada bagel donut; he got zero whiffs! On a day when he had seven strikeouts, Woods Richardson got zero whiffs on his curveball. The Angels have the second-highest team strikeout rate against righties, and he got zero whiffs.
Overall, Woods Richardson has a pitiful 5.1 percent swinging-strike rate with the pitch this season and an 8.1 percent swinging-strike rate for his career. It’s not a good strikeout pitch, so even though Woods Richardson is using it more, I’m not particularly excited about it.
He’s likely using it more often because of the good results, but the .143 BABIP won’t last forever, even with a 57.1 percent ground-ball rate against the pitch.
His most-used pitch in this start, and in general, is his four-seam fastball. A 93 mph offering, Woods Richardson does not have exceptional movement or spin with this pitch. He does have a below-average drop, which can cause hitters to swing under the pitch, resulting in many flyballs. He has a 54.3 percent fly-ball rate off his four-seamer thus far.
This isn’t the worst approach in the world, but it can leave a pitcher susceptible to home runs. Woods Richardson has already surrendered 1.48 HR/9 on a 10 percent HR/FB ratio. Since his HR:FB is already near league average, we shouldn’t expect much regression in this department.
One problem for Woods Richardson this season has been how hard opponents are hitting the ball against him. He has a 91.7 mph average exit velocity against and a 13.1 percent barrel rate against, both putting him in the fifth percentile in the majors. His four-seamer has been pulverized with a 92.9 mph average exit velocity and a 20-degree average launch angle against.
Woods Richardson already has a high .471 SLG off his fastball this season, but his .610 xSLG suggests that Woods Richardson is fortunate not to have given up more power.
Woods Richardson has leaned heavily on his slider at times this season, although the usage was down to 17.4 percent in this most recent start, his lowest of the season and lower than any start last season. Woods Richardson’s slider is another pitch with unremarkable spin and movement.
An 85.7 mph offering, batters have handled the slider well this season. He has a .276 AVG, .483 SLG, and .329 wOBA against the pitch this year. Again, batters are just crushing the ball off Woods Richardson. He has a 91 mph average exit velocity against his slider, along with a 22-degree average launch angle.
The big issue with rostering Woods Richardson is the risk-reward equation. He doesn’t pitch particularly deep into games, he plays for a middling club, he doesn’t offer much strikeout upside, and he’s a big home run risk. There’s just not a lot of upside to chase here, and he carries considerable downside with this profile.
Verdict:
Woods Richardson is making a noticeable change to his pitch mix. He’s begun relying on his curveball more and his slider less. This ultimately may be the best move for his career, but it does not make him appealing for fantasy. His curveball has performed unsustainably well considering the poor strikeout metrics.
He has a 5.1 percent swinging-strike rate with the pitch, yet batters are hitting .143 with a .143 BABIP off the curve.
It seems to be a better pitch than his slider or changeup, but don’t expect big strikeout numbers or even solid run prevention from Woods Richardson with this approach. His four-seamer has been crushed for a .314 AVG and .471 SLG, and the expected stats are somehow even worse.
Woods Richardson has surrendered lots of hard contact while failing to consistently miss bats. That’s not a profile I want to chase. He’s an avoid.
Jose Quintana, Milwaukee Brewers - 44% Rostered
2025 Stats (prior to this start): 18.2 IP, 0.96 ERA, 3.59 FIP, 5.7 percent K-BB rate
4/27 @ STL: 5 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 6 K
Quintana has been rolling since making his Brewers debut on April 11, 2025, against the Diamondbacks. He has a 1.14 ERA through four starts and is looking like one of the steals of the offseason at $4.5 million for one year in Milwaukee. Quintana is an excellent real baseball arm for his inning-eating abilities, but is there any fantasy appeal in the 36-year-old southpaw?
Originally an international free agent signed by the Mets in 2006 (yes, Quintana is old) out of Colombia, Quintana has carved out a fine major league career for himself, having pitched in parts of each of the last 14 MLB seasons. His career has gone through stages, but the last few years have seen Quintana reinvent himself as a reliable bulk arm who can stabilize a big league rotation, even if his fantasy appeal is lacking.
Since 2022, Quintana has had a 3.27 ERA and 3.72 FIP over 435 1/3 innings. That’s reliability. Quintana works with a five-pitch mix consisting of a sinker, changeup, curveball, four-seam fastball, and slurve. In years past, it’s been about the four-seamer and curveball for Quintana, but he’s shifted his pitch mix recently to rely more on his sinker.
Quintana had always thrown two fastballs, the four-seamer and the sinker, but it wasn’t until he came to the Mets in 2023 that Quintana became a sinkerballer, using his sinker more than his four-seamer. He’s really ramped up his sinker usage this year, throwing the pitch a career-high 48.1 percent of the time, compared to 30.4 percent usage last year, an already high usage rate for Quintana.
Between 2023 and 2025, opponents are hitting just .235 off Quintana’s sinker, along with a .391 SLG, while batters are hitting .285 with a .472 SLG off his four-seamer during that same stretch.
What’s strange for Quintana is that he’s surrendering rather hard contact with this pitch, and while he has a decent ground-ball rate with the pitch, it’s hardly exceptional. Quintana has allowed a 93.6 mph average exit velocity against his sinker this season, along with a nine-degree average launch angle. Batters are slugging .425 with a .492 xSLG off the pitch thus far, along with a .375 xwOBA against.
His 46.7 percent ground-ball rate is fine, but it hardly can explain such good results. He had a 53.8 percent ground-ball rate last year, but I’d expect him to hover around the 49.9 percent career ground-ball rate he has with his sinker.
He gives up a lot of hard contact with the pitch, and it doesn’t necessarily induce groundballs at the prodigious rate we like to see with sinkers. It also doesn’t have a lot of strikeout appeal, with a miserable 3.9 percent swinging-strike rate this season and a 5.2 percent career mark.
Sinkers are not known as strikeout pitches, so we won’t fault Quintana too much for this, but altogether, he seems like a strikeout liability. He has a 16.1 percent strikeout rate this season and a 19.2 percent strikeout rate between 2022 and 2025. He hasn’t cracked 20 percent since 2022, and this sinker-heavy approach won’t get him back there.
Another pitch that Quintana has been relying on more this season is his changeup, which he’s thrown 23.7 percent of the time thus far, marking the first time that Quintana has thrown his changeup more than his curveball in a season, granted it’s only been four starts.
An 85.5 mph offering, Quintana’s changeup is a low-spin pitch with average movement and break.
Here’s an example from this start.
Not a bad pitch by any means, and it’s proven to be Quintana’s best strikeout pitch when he’s on as well. He had a 13.8 percent swinging-strike rate with the pitch last season, but has just an 8.0 percent swinging-strike rate this season. He’s had better numbers in years past, so I think we can expect better outcomes for him going forward.
Batters are struggling against the changeup, hitting just .217 with a .217 SLG and a .215 wOBA, though the .290 xBA and .391 xSLG suggest that he’s been a little fortunate with the pitch this season.
A little fortunate could be the slogan for Quintana’s first four starts. There are three numbers I like to look at to gauge a pitcher’s fortune, and they are BABIP, strand rate, and HR/FB rate. These numbers tend to hang around league average for most pitchers, so if they’re abnormally high or low, it could suggest that a pitcher is getting lucky or unlucky on the mound.
Quintana has a .261 BABIP against, a 93.8 percent LOB rate, and a 4.2 percent HR/FB rate. These are all significant deviations from league average, and once these numbers normalize, Quintana’s ERA and WHIP will rise. He may have a 1.14 ERA, but his 4.21 xFIP and 4.59 SIERA are a little scary.
Quintana has managed to beat these numbers over the past few years, but not with bankable stuff. There’s a veteran craftiness to him that’s endearing, but he’s not someone I’m particularly interested in for fantasy purposes.
Verdict:
Quintana has reinvented himself in the Mets’ pitching lab to become a sinkerball pitcher. It’s been great for him these past few years, but Quintana’s methods of success seem unsustainable and have low fantasy appeal. Quintana doesn’t have the ability to get lots of strikeouts, and the six we saw against St. Louis is about the maximum we could expect in a given start.
He’s begun relying more on his changeup over the past few seasons as well.
The changeup has proven to be Quintana’s best strikeout pitch, but that doesn’t make him a strikeout pitcher. Ultimately, Quintana has proven he can keep an ERA respectable over a large bulk of innings and has some streaming or deep league appeal for that reason, but he’s not someone I’d ever be excited to use.
He's a veteran streamer against weak opponents.
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