Starting Pitcher Fantasy Baseball Breakout Picks - Dan Palyo's Mid-Round Values

Dan Palyo
Ryan Pepiot - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Injury News

Pitching, pitching, and more pitching - you can't have enough of it as the long season often leads to the inevitable injuries as arms wear down.

I am a little obsessed with pitching; I'll admit it. While I'd like to go after some elite arms early in fantasy baseball drafts, this season, I think I am going to make a conscious effort to target bats in the early rounds -- and then go after pitchers in the middle rounds, as I think that particular part of the draft is loaded with pitching talent.

In this article, I'll spotlight five mid-round fantasy baseball breakout candidates -- starting pitcher targets with upside who project to provide value based on our most recent set of RotoBaller fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings.

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Ryan Pepiot, Tampa Bay Rays

ADP: 174
Baller Move: 165

When a pitcher has a dominant fastball, it makes it a lot easier to assemble an arsenal of offspeed pitches around it. I'd much rather see a young guy with a live fastball than someone who has to hide their fastball by relying too much on offspeed and breaking pitches.

Ryan Pepiot has an elite fastball. He averages 95 mph on his heater but has some of the best IVB (induced vertical break) of anyone in the majors. IVB is what is responsible for the perceived rising action on a four-seamer and it helps the pitch "play up" or appear faster out of the pitcher's hand.

The average IVB on a four-seamer is around 15 inches (the shaded red circle), yet we can see here that Pepiot's fastball was in the 18-20 inch range most of the time.

Pepiot's Stuff+ rating on his fastball was 108 last season, tied for the second-best mark among all starting pitchers (with teammates Taj Bradley, Gerrit Cole, and Bryan Woo).

The fastball pairs so well with his changeup, which drops off the table at 85 mph and averaged 15 inches of arm-side run last season. The changeup induced a 56% ground ball rate and limited opposing hitters to a .216 average.

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I know some readers have expressed fears about drafting Tampa pitchers based on the park factor of their temporary home stadium this season (Steinbrenner Park). While it's certainly a downgrade from Tropicana Field, I'm not fading some of these uber-talented arms based on a worse park factor for half of their starts. I think Pepiot is going to be a stud and I'll take the risk of a few more home runs allowed to reap the benefits of a guy I think can be an elite strikeout pitcher.

 

Cristopher Sanchez, Philadelphia Phillies

ADP: 175
Baller Move: 140

Let's crank up the hype machine on Sanchez even more - he deserves it! I mean, honestly, does this look like the metrics from a pitcher who was being taken around pick 200 a month ago?

If there was one knock on Sanchez, it was that he wasn't getting enough strikeouts, and his fastball was just very average at 94 mph. Well, he looks to have added a few mph to the heater, and his changeup is every bit as nasty as it was last year when opponents hit just .171 against the pitch.

He's shown really solid control with a 6% career walk rate. If he starts striking out more hitters this season, he will take a huge leap up the rankings and make this price tag look silly by the end of the season.

 

Taj Bradley, Tampa Bay Rays

ADP: 195
Baller Move: 172

Taj Bradley's second season in the majors was pretty similar to his rookie campaign, but with some longer stretches of consistency. We saw a similar amount of strikeouts and walks, but fewer home runs allowed and overall better batted ball numbers.

He trimmed his ERA by a run and a half but still finished with a 4.11 mark on the season - a number that leaves plenty more room for improvement.

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I love how well Bradley's arsenal of pitches complements each other. He throws hard, averaging 96-97 mph on his fastball with above-average IVB (18.7 inches). He also features a big 12 to 6 curveball that falls off the table and a wicked splitter that also works down and out of the zone.

He doubled his splitter usage while cutting back on his cutter - which is arguably his worst pitch. And his GB% increased as a result, too, which is always a good thing. He's only turning 24 years old this month, and the future looks very bright for this youngster if he continues to develop from year two to year three, which I think he will.

 

Nick Pivetta, San Diego Padres

ADP: 203
Baller Move: 160

I am a bit of a Pivetta truther, and while I'll admit he's always going to carry some ERA risk with the HR-prone nature of his stuff, it's hard to pass up a guy with such serious strikeout chops at this stage of the draft. Pivetta has 170+ strikeouts in four straight seasons - that's even with him working as a hybrid starter/reliever for Boston at times. His K% was 31% in 2023 and 29% last year - that's nothing to sneeze at!

We saw the Padres have some success in reviving Dylan Cease last season - another hard-throwing fastball/slider guy who had some control and HR issues. Pivetta is still in his prime at 32 years old and has a very live fastball (94-95 mph) that plays faster due to some excellent IVB (19.9 inches). He went to the sweeper last year as his out pitch against righties and it had a 35% whiff rate.

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It's only been a handful of innings, but he's looking great this Spring with a 36% K% through his first two appearances for the Padres. We know what we are getting here with Pivetta - an established veteran who has great strikeout stuff and is a bargain at this ADP.

 

Bryan Woo, Seattle Mariners

ADP: 137
Baller Move: 128

I can't help but be impressed with the young Mariners' pitcher and what he's been able to do when healthy and on the mound in his brief career. In 209 innings over the last two seasons, Woo has a 3.44 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP. He pounds the strike zone and had a ridiculously low 2.8% BB% last season while also flexing some impressive batted ball numbers (4.8% Barrel%, 2.92 xERA).

Woo's second half of the 2024 campaign saw his K% jump to 24% while maintaining the same low walk rate. He made major improvements against lefties (.262 wOBA allowed) from his rookie season in 2023 when Southpaws hit him incredibly hard (.394 wOBA allowed). He drastically lowered his slider and sweeper usage vs. lefties while upping the number of changeups and getting results.

He's been lights out this Spring, too, if we needed confirmation that his strong second half would carry over to this season.

The biggest knock on him would be that he peaked at 121 innings last season. But I think Woo has Joe Ryan-type upside here as another pitcher who simply won't walk guys and who has a developing arsenal that we have already seen be effective.



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