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Is Sony Michel a fantasy football draft sleeper? Rishi Patel analyzes the fantasy impact of his trade to the Rams and how each running back's value is affected.
The Los Angeles Rams struck a deal to acquire Patriots RB Sony Michel this past week, a move that made sense for both sides. On the Rams’ side, they lost starting RB Cam Akers to an Achilles injury, which will cause him to miss 2021. For the Pats, they have a stable of backs who all won’t likely have a role on the offense, which ended up signaling that Michel was expendable.
Now, Michel will have a fresh start out West, joining a Los Angeles offense led by Matthew Stafford. The Georgia product should immediately be in the starting conversation as Darrell Henderson Jr. is the only real threat to Michel.
Let’s break down Michel’s fantasy outlook for 2021.
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Career Recap
Oftentimes in New England, Michel was found competing with guys like James White and Rex Burkhead for playing time. This offseason, the Patriots have many backs on their roster as well, including Damien Harris (presumed starter), James White, J.J. Taylor, and an impressive rookie in Rhamondre Stevenson. Ultimately, this results in too many mouths to feed, thus the team jettisoning Michel to the West Coast.
In three career NFL seasons, Michel has generally played well, coming just short of 1,000 yards rushing in 2018 and 2019 before dipping in his production last season due to a quad injury and COVID-19 list appearance that resulted in him playing only nine games.
When able to play most of the games in a season, Michel has thrived. His 2018 rookie year was a great start to his career where he posted 931 rushing yards, six rushing touchdowns, and seven receptions for 50 yards on 11 targets in 13 games. His 2019 campaign was about similar, he finished with 912 rushing yards and seven rushing touchdowns along with 12 receptions for 94 yards on 20 targets in 16 games.
It was in 2020 where Michel understandably posted much lower numbers due to absences. He finished with a modest 449 rushing yards and one rush touchdown but a notable seven receptions for 114 yards and a score on nine targets.
Now on the Rams, Michel has a chance to surpass his 2018 and 2019 numbers if he takes advantage of his opportunities, works to earn the starting role throughout the season, and stays healthy. But can he pull it off? That’s an answer we don’t have right now.
2021 Outlook
The Rams won’t have 2020 draft pick Cam Akers, who tore his Achilles a month ago and will be sidelined the entire 2021 season. The next man up is Darrell Henderson Jr., Michel’s primary competition for the starting role.
The 24-year-old Henderson was drafted in the third round of the 2019 NFL draft and already has two NFL seasons under his belt. While Henderson only recorded 184 total scrimmage yards in his rookie year, it was last year where he began to show flashes of his talent.
The Memphis product recorded 624 rushing yards, five rushing touchdowns, along with 16 receptions for 159 yards and a score on 24 targets in 15 games. Henderson only finished one yard shy of leading RB Cam Akers in 2020. A thumb injury this past week left some cause for concern, but Henderson is expected to be ready for the regular season and head coach Sean McVay has claimed that the RB’s role will be large this season even with the arrival of Michel.
This only makes the RB situation confusing from a fantasy perspective. It remains unclear who will get more touches to start the season and this may end up being a two-man committee until a “hot hand” situation may emerge.
Nevertheless, heading into drafts, Henderson should be considered a low-end RB2/high RB3 while Michel should be a flex. Let’s look at the logic behind this. Michel is new to the team and will need to learn the system (in a fairly short time) while Henderson is a step ahead, as he knows and is familiar with the system, and proved it last year with his numbers. To begin the season, it’s possible Henderson may take on a lion’s share of the work while Michel could be eased in. Because of that, it seems Henderson is the safer back to draft of the two.
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