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Kev Mahserejian analyzes NFL snap counts and usage from last week to find fantasy football risers and fallers for Week 14 and beyond. These RBs, WRs and TEs could be sleepers or busts moving forward.
Snap counts are not the be-all-end-all for fantasy production, but they paint a clear picture with the necessary context. Every snap is an opportunity for a player to make his presence felt and if their snaps go up or down, you get an idea of what the team thinks of their skill set. A running back can have all the rushing talent in the world, but if he can't catch the ball or is useless in pass protection, his snaps will not reflect that talent.
We do not have much of a sample for rising or falling snaps but for the sake of trying to identify worthwhile trends early, that's the basis we will use. Snap% listed reflects a player's usage in Week 13 contests.
If you have any questions, feel free to follow me on Twitter @RotoSurgeon and ask away.
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Rising Snap Counts for Fantasy Football
Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, DET (61%>85%>98%>96% snaps)
Amon-Ra St. Brown has stepped up as the Lions' WR1 for the sake of fantasy. In real life, he is a slot receiver who commands low-aDOT (7.0) targets and acts as a safety blanket for Goff. However, he has begun to play the Z-receiver role of late with Anthony Lynn's role in the offense limited. In the first game sans D'Andre Swift, ARSB saw his only double-digit target game of the season.
ARSB is definitely someone to roster and even start while Swift remains out.
K.J. Osborn, WR, MIN (51%>55%>92% snaps)
With Adam Thielen (ankle) sidelined for the foreseeable future, K.J. Osborn takes over as the WR2 in Minnesota and will likely play nearly every snap given their lack of depth. Osborn's "breakout" season this year isn't too notable with just 412 yards and 3TDs in 12 games but he is certainly a good piece.
It is unlikely that Thielen's massive target share siphons all the way to Osborn. Tyler Conklin will see a larger role in the passing game along with the RBs while Justin Jefferson is likely to be bracketed heavier than ever (but he's Justin Jefferson so it doesn't matter).
Osborn is well worth rostering and can be started in a pinch.
Laquon Treadwell, WR, TEN (35%>72%>86%>93% snaps)
This is ridiculous. The last thing the Jaguars' offense needed was a WR in the archetype of Laquon Treadwell. While he has been moderately productive this season, he is slow and further bogs down one of the league's most sluggish offenses.
He has 13 targets for 115 yards over the past two games but this is very likely a blip. The Jaguars were blown out last week and prior to that, they played the Falcons. Treadwell is of no interest regardless of him playing almost every snap on a team that is forced to throw in the second half of games.
Falling Snap Counts for Fantasy Football
James Robinson, RB, JAX (63%>52%>44% snaps)
Well, this is quite curious given how well Robinson has performed since taking over as Jacksonville's starting RB last season. He has now lost fumbles in back-to-back games and lost significant snaps due to it. Urban Meyer allegedly lied to the media stating that Robinson was not benched while Robinson himself claims that he was.
There is no performance issue aside from the fumbles and Robinson appears healthy on gamedays despite limitations in practice due to a heel injury.
O.J. Howard, TE, (58%>26%>13%>9% snaps)
An unfortunate but likely circumstance. Beyond struggling since Bruce Arians came to town, Howard has dealt with a myriad of injuries that have demolished his present-day abilities/athleticism. A once budding star had his breakout season cut short by an ankle fracture then his 2020 extinguished by an achilles tear.
There was hope after a quick recovery that he could once again be effective but it has not come about this year. Howard is no longer even the TE2 in Tampa as Cam Brate holds that spot. Most who held onto Howard have likely dropped him by now but even in Dynasty leagues, he's looking shaky moving forward. Give him one more year to prove himself as the first year off an achilles injury typically is not great for fantasy.
Bryan Edwards, WR, LV (83%>72%>68% snaps)
This is a flag I planted that has not aged well. Bryan Edwards' profiled like one of the league's next under-drafted alphas but the returns thus far have been dismal. He is highly efficient on a per-target (10.6ypt) basis but does not get open enough to earn said targets. His 10.3% target share is extremely low and the fact that he's still not commanding looks while no longer competing with Henry Ruggs is a bad sign.
With even Darren Waller sidelined, Hunter Renfrow has taken over as the Raiders' lead receiver while Bryan Edwards runs wind sprints hoping for the occasional downfield look. Edwards can be safely dropped.
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