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Welcome to our Sleeper NBA DFS prop picks for Friday, April 19. With no Zion Williamson and no Jimmy Butler, Friday’s play-in games look over before they start.
The Miami Heat are notorious for playing well without superstars (leaving some hope), but we’ve seen the Pelicans with and without Williamson, and facing the Kings will be no contest. Williamson was the only reason New Orleans kept competitive against Los Angeles, and without him, the Pelicans most likely wouldn’t even make the play-in.
The Heat have a chance to steal a win from Chicago, but based on how well the Bulls shot last game, it’ll take more than just a cohesive team effort to disrupt this momentum. Even if Butler was already playing through injury, losing him completely to an MCL sprain leaves massive gaps in Miami’s team dynamic.
Sleeper offers some of the best and easiest-to-win NBA DFS games in the industry. Sleeper DFS works just like regular player prop betting -- there are no large-field tournaments in which to get lost. You're not playing against other people; you're just playing against the projections. Here are some of our favorite NBA prop picks for Friday's 2-game slate.
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NBA DFS Props - Over/Under Picks for Friday, April 19
Ayo Dosunmu UNDER 4.5 Assists
The Bulls offense runs heavily off the creation of DeMar DeRozan and Coby White, anchored by a strong paint presence in Nikola Vucevic. Competing for usage with this core three is a tough task and they don’t leave many opportunities for secondary playmakers to rack up assists. Ayo Dosunmu will get assists because that’s just how he plays, but for him to hit an over like this he would need to see real playmaking opportunities in the halfcourt.
Until the Bulls lose one of their primary playmakers, Dosunmu should continue with the 3-and-D role that he has accepted for nearly the entirety of the season. We’ve seen Dosunmu with free-range of the offense, and he’s a triple-double threat that absolutely crushes assist props, but that’s not the case tonight unless something goes terribly wrong for Miami.
Keon Ellis OVER 2.5 Assists
Keon Ellis is an up-and-coming guard who had a very successful season, but nothing compares to his impact on the Kings' play-in game versus Golden State. Ellis was all over the court from the very start, and the nearly 40 minutes he played were every bit deserved. He’s a bloodhound on defense, and his offense revolves around speed and athleticism, but here’s the kicker. The fact that he’s only 6’3 forces him to be a pass-first player, and unless it’s a wide-open lane, Ellis is foremost looking to make the right play.
With De’Aaron Fox firmly and undoubtedly the point guard for this team, Ellis won’t see the same number of opportunities to get assists, but the way he plays creates them regardless. When he drives, he collapses the defense to free up paint points, and when he’s patient, he can burn an over-commitment, rarely refusing to make that ‘one-more’ pass. The upside is there, and rebounds might be the safer bet, but scared money doesn’t make money, and there’s no reason to be scared of three assists.
DeMar DeRozan OVER 10.5 Rebounds + Assists
Chicago’s offense is rolling, and they have two players to thank. White being a lights-out shooter always helps, but having the consistency of a player like DeRozan in your offense creates much-needed stability. The ball touches his hands every possession, and very rarely does he fail to contribute across the board statistics. Even if Nikola Vucevic and White are the leading scorers in each game, the possessions start with DeRozan.
His usage will hit 30% in the near future and DeRozan is one of the few players across the league that gets better as the game goes on. The combination prop of rebounds and assists offers security and more favorable odds, not to mention this Heat team is missing their best defender and the one player that would be able to keep DeRozan from producing. The worst-case scenario is still DeRozan as the primary playmaker.
Be sure to also check out our brand new PrizePicks Optimizer tool and the free PrizePicks DFS Props Tool to see more recommended picks.
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