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Should I Draft Justin Jefferson or Ja'Marr Chase? Joey Pollizze analyzes NFL players with similar values, and tells you who to pick once you're on the clock in your fantasy football draft.
If you're picking at the top of your fantasy football drafts, the hardest decision you'll have to make is who to select at the 1.01. It's a decision you can't afford to miss on. Last year, Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor was the consensus top pick in regular one quarterback leagues. But his poor year hurt those who drafted him at the top of the draft.
This year, the two likely options for the first overall pick are Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase and Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson. Both former LSU teammates are already superstars in the league. But who's the better pick in fantasy this season?
Should I draft Jefferson or Chase in fantasy? Let's dive in.
Should I Draft Justin Jefferson?
Jefferson has been the number-one overall pick in fantasy football in most drafts this summer. The Vikings wideout has three straight top-five wide receiver finishes in half-PPR formats to begin his career, including a WR1 finish in 2022. So, his ADP on Sleeper and ESPN of 1.5 seems about right.
Last season, Jefferson caught 128 passes for 1,809 yards and eight touchdowns. He averaged 21.7 PPR fantasy points per game while having nine top-four wide receiver finishes during the year. The 24-year-old superstar also finished as the eighth overall player in PPR leagues in 2022.
Jefferson has been a consistent fantasy wideout since he entered the league in 2020. He broke the receiving record for most yards in a player's first three NFL seasons, and there are surely more records for him to surpass. A 2,000-yard season could be in store for the wideout in the future -- if not this year.
Should I Draft Ja'Marr Chase?
Depending on what format you're in, Chase has been the most likely selection at the 1.02 in drafts this season. In PPR leagues, the Bengals wideout is much more valuable and usually goes above San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey. Even in half-PPR leagues, the 23-year-old star has been the favorite at second overall.
Chase is a fantastic pick early in drafts because he checks off all the boxes of a star fantasy player. He has such a high volume (29.3% target share in 2022), plays on an elite offense (Cincinnati averaged over 25 points a game), and has prior dominant fantasy seasons (WR5 PPR finish in 2021).
Despite missing four games last year, Chase still finished as the WR12 in PPR formats while averaging 18.6 points per game. He also had five top-seven wideout finishes in 2022, including two WR1 finishes in back-to-back weeks in Week 6 and Week 7. In a full season, the young superstar will find himself atop the wide receiver ranks once again.
Should I Draft Justin Jefferson Or Ja'Marr Chase?
You can't go wrong with either player early in drafts. Assuming you're picking at the 1.01 or 1.02, you are guaranteed one of these studs to help lead your fantasy team to a championship.
But if I'm on the clock and both players are available, Jefferson should be the pick. If it wasn't for back-to-back poor performances in Week 17 and 18, the Vikings wideout would have caught for over 2,000 receiving yards in 2022. With veteran Adam Thielen cut this offseason and rookie Jordan Addison adjusting to the NFL level in his first season, the former LSU product could have an even more dominant year in 2023.
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