X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Projections
Articles & Tools
Weekly Planner
24x7 News and Alerts

Seeing The Future, Part 1: A Look At This Year's NBA Rookie Class

Kent Shen discusses the historic rookie class of 2017/18, including fantasy performance and future outlook, starting with the rookie of the year candidates.

With most fantasy playoffs in full swing, and articles all over the place with regards to waiver pickups, stream targets and playoff match-up analysis, I figured it'd be a good time to instead take a look with an eye on the future.

2017-2018's rookie class was one of the most exciting in recent memory, and I'm going to be going over the future outlook down the road, starting with some of the bigger names in this draft class.

Let's begin with with the front-runners for Rookie of the Year.

Upgrade To VIP: Win more with our NBA and DFS Premium Pass, get expert tools and advice from proven winners! Jamie Calandro and Dan Palyo lead the RotoBaller team in 2024-25 with exclusive DFS picks, Prop picks and more. Gain VIP access to our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, DFS Cheat Sheets and VIP Chat Rooms. Go Premium, Win More!

 

Ben Simmons, Philadelphia 76ers

Simmons has lived up to the hype and then some, posting a phenomenal season with top 60 value in standard 8-cat leagues (and top 20(!) in punt FT% builds). He has shown generational ball handling skills, especially for someone of that size, and has been the second best player on a playoff team on the rise.

What's more amazing is that Simmons has done this without any semblance of a shot. An astounding 92% of his shot attempts have come either at the rim or the short mid-range, which makes it all the more crazier that Simmons has been this productive when opponents can sag off him defensively due to the nonexistent threat of his shooting.

Player Comparison: Young LeBron James

The easiest and laziest comparison is a young LeBron. LeBron came into the league as a gifted play-making big with a suspect shot, a generational passer for someone of his size and strength. While LeBron wasn't a good shooter when he entered the league 15 years ago, he at least attempted to shoot, with 42% of his shots coming from either long mid-range or behind the arc.

It took LeBron 8 or so years to eventually become a dangerous shooter, and while it'll be hard pressed for Simmons to get to that level, there is a decent chance that he will develop somewhat of a shot down the road. The passing and play-making might be even more refined than James was at this age, so if Simmons is able to become even a 33% 3-point shooter, he will be absolutely lethal.

Ceiling: Top 30 near term, first round long term

Simmons is already close to an elite fantasy guy, and his game translates exceptionally well. In a punt FT% build, he will already be returning close to first round value next year, especially considering how valuable his out of position assists and steals are for that particular build. Even without a shot, he will be a linchpin of that build for years to come.

If he's able to develop a shot at all and become a better free-throw shooter, look out - he could end up fighting for the first overall pick a few years down the road.

 

Donovan Mitchell, Utah Jazz

The other contender for Rookie of the Year, Mitchell has been amazing this season, becoming the go-to scorer for a legitimate playoff team that has still played better than its record suggests. Mitchell has already been a top-60 player this year, and this includes his slow start to the season as the Jazz were still breaking in their new rookie. He's been absolutely electric leading the offense of a team that desperately needed it.

Player Comparison: James Harden

By now, everyone's seen the per 36 comparisons for Mitchell's season versus James Harden at the same age, but here it is again for reference:

Harden:

.436FG% .349 3PT% .843FT% 4.2REB 2.9AST 1.5 STL 0.4BLK 1.7TO

Mitchell:

.436FG% .348 3PT% .842FT% 3.9REB 3.9AST 1.6 STL 0.4BLK 3.0TO

That's incredible. Mitchell is already taking on more ball-handling responsibilities than Harden did commandeering OKC's second unit at the time, and it's reasonable to expect that aspect of his game to improve as he gets older.

Ceiling: Top 40 short term, first round long term

The Don is absolutely an all-star in the making, and he's already a great fantasy player who should slot comfortably into the top 40 next season. The biggest I believe that Mitchell has first round upside, regardless if he develops his play-making to the level James Harden has, is his 1.5 per game steal rate as a rookie. A large part making up the difference between first round and second round elite point guards is steals, as the guys who sit or have sat in the first round (Curry, Westbrook, Harden, Wall, CP3) all possess steal rates above 1.5, while guys like Lillard and Irving who are great but sit just outside the first round have had rates below 1.0.

Mitchell is already at that 1.5 mark as a rookie, and could have peak seasons close to 2. He's already going to be a comfortable 20+ ppg scorer next season, and if he is able to get his assists up to something like 6+ down the road, that could very well be the basis of a first round skillset.

 

Jayson Tatum

Tatum opened the season fast, posting insane efficiency for a rookie off unsustainable 3-point shooting. His shooting has since petered out a bit since that scorching start, and his output over the last 3 months has languished outside the top 100. He's still playing significant minutes for a contending team, which is great for a rookie who is still just 19 years old.

Player Comparison: Gordon Hayward

The fantasy skill-set is almost identical to Hayward, and it is easy to see Tatum developing into a similar type of player as Hayward, except a lot quicker than Gordon did. It took Gordon until his age 24 season before he developed into a borderline superstar and top 40 fantasy player, and it's reasonable to expect Tatum to reach that level by his age 21 season. The mix of good efficiency, coupled with across the board production won't make him a linchpin of any specific build, but a glue guy that can slot in a multitude of different ones.

Ceiling: Top 70 short term, top 20 long term

The one thing that could hold Tatum back from reaching a higher ceiling in fantasy is a lack of defensive stats. Tatum is only posting 0.9 steals and 0.8 blocks this season, well below the types of numbers most top 20 and up guys put up in at least one of those categories. Hayward jumped to 1.4 steals in his 4th season, which is one of the main reason why he vaulted into an elite fantasy guy, and we need to see Tatum make a similar kind of jump to reach his potential. Tatum's ceiling would look something like 2 3s, with a steal and a block, which is elite production worthy of an early pick.

 

Lonzo Ball

Despite suffering through an injury riddled rookie year, Lonzo has quietly been a top-70 guy in standard builds and a ridiculous top-20 value in both punt FT% and punt FG% builds. He has one of the most unique, fantasy friendly games we have seen in a long time, and while the concerns regarding his percentages are a legitimate concern, it's a lot less so from a fantasy standpoint as you can easily punt one or both of those stats.

Player Comparison: Draymond Green

This comparison makes no sense in real life, but in fantasy there couldn't be a more perfect match. Draymond has a very similar skill-set, providing across the board production while  hurting you in the %s, but Draymond's percentages are not nearly as bad as what Lonzo posted this season, and as Lonzo develops, we can expect him to jump to a similar level of efficiency as well at some point in his career. Draymond gets you out of position assists and steals for a big man, while Lonzo gets you out of position rebounds and blocks for a guard. This is the kind of thing that makes fantasy basketball more interesting than other sports, 2 completely different players in real life can have almost identical skill-sets in our world.

Ceiling: Top 30 short term, Top 10 value in punt builds

As early as next season, Lonzo will already be a top 20 value for punt FT% and punt FG% builds, and soon, he can easily find himself returning top 10. Right now, with his low volume, he won't hurt as much in non-punt builds but the concern is as his volume ramps up, he will become a bigger drag in those categories and become purely a punt guy. There will be a year or 2 window before his efficiency catches up a bit that he will only really be viable at his ADP for those specific punt builds, but as his career progresses, we can expect him to be an insane fantasy player and remain one of the most unique players in the game today.

 

Check back next week for another back of rookies as we move on with our analysis!

 

More Fantasy Basketball Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Projections
Articles & Tools
Weekly Planner
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Tyler Soderstrom

Returns to A's Lineup
Tyler Warren

Sidelined on Wednesday with Toe Injury
Jaylen Waddle

Questionable for Week 3 Against Buffalo
Joe Burrow

Bengals Not Closing the Door on Joe Burrow Returning This Year
CFB

LaNorris Sellers to Play Against Missouri?
Kyle Tucker

Progress has "Plateaued"
Isaac Paredes

has "Outside Chance" to Return This Weekend
CFB

Kaidon Salter Expected To Start for Colorado on Saturday
Willson Contreras

Goes on 10-Day Injured List, Done for Season
Justin Fields

Ruled Out for Week 3 Due to Concussion
Jayden Reed

Out Indefinitely After Foot and Shoulder Surgery
Washington Commanders

Preston Smith Signs With Commanders
Trey Jemison III

Joins Knicks on Two-Way Contract
Kevin McCullar Jr.

Signs New Two-Way Deal With Knicks
Matt Ryan

Returns to Knicks on Exhibit 10 Contract
New York Knicks

Alex Len Signs Exhibit 9 Deal With Knicks
Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Expected to Take on Larger Offensive Role With Hawks
Thomas Sorber

Undergoes Surgery
Dominic Canzone

Has Five-Hit, Three-Homer Game Tuesday
Cal Raleigh

Sets Single-Season Home Run Record for a Switch-Hitter
Jayden Reed

Undergoes Clavicle and Foot Surgeries, Out for Foreseeable Future
Bo Bichette

to Miss Rest of Regular Season
Zach Neto

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Hand Injury
Yordan Alvarez

Out on Tuesday, Dealing With "Significant" Ankle Sprain
Aaron Jones Sr.

Vikings Place Aaron Jones Sr. on Injured Reserve With Hamstring Injury
CFB

Diego Pavia Refutes Report of Seeking Seventh Collegiate Season
Christian Kirk

Expected to Return in Week 3
CFB

Diego Pavia Seeking Another Year of Eligibility
Tarik Skubal

on Track to Start Thursday
CFB

Kevorian Barnes Questionable Against SMU
Bo Bichette

has Short-Term Knee Injury, Could Return for Postseason
Tosan Evbuomwan

Joins Knicks
NBA

Kai Jones Links Up With EuroLeague Team
Bismack Biyombo

Returns to Spurs
Bones Hyland

Rejoins Timberwolves
Kobe Bufkin

Moves to Brooklyn
Trey Yesavage

Sets Franchise Strikeout Record On Monday
Yordan Alvarez

To Receive MRI For Sprained Left Ankle On Tuesday
Willson Contreras

Exits Early Monday With Right-Biceps Tightness
Yordan Alvarez

Exits With Ankle Sprain
Brock Bowers

Officially Active on Monday Night
Jauan Jennings

Day-to-Day With Ankle Injury
Logan O'Hoppe

Activated Off Seven-Day Injured List
CBJ

Denton Mateychuk Dealing With Groin Issue
Bo Horvat

Fine for Training Camp
Kirby Dach

on Track to Be Ready for Opening Night
Jose Altuve

Returns Against Rangers
J.J. McCarthy

Expected to Miss 2-4 Weeks With High-Ankle Sprain
J.J. McCarthy

Likely Out for Week 3 With High-Ankle Sprain
Jean Silva

Gets Finished For The First Time In His Career
Aaron Jones Sr.

Unlikely to Play in Week 3 Due to Hamstring Injury
Diego Lopes

Returns To The Win Column
Jayden Daniels

' Week 3 Status in Doubt
Rob Font

Outclassed In The Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
David Martinez

Wins His Second UFC Fight
Jared Gordon

Suffers Brutal TKO Loss At Noche UFC 3
Rafa Garcia

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Brian Thomas Jr.

Dealing with Wrist Injury
Dustin Stoltzfus

Drops A Decision At Noche UFC 3
Kelvin Gastelum

Gets Back In The Win Column
Diego Ferreira

Suffers Second-Round TKO
Alexander Hernandez

Extends His Win Streak With A Brutal TKO
Quang Le

Suffers First-Round Knockout
Santiago Luna

Shines In His UFC Debut
Christopher Bell

Earns his First Bristol Cup Series Victory
Alex Bowman

Falls Short of Advancing Through Cup Series Playoffs
Chase Briscoe

Collects his Third Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Ryan Blaney

Strong Top-Five Bristol Performance Advances him to the Playoffs
Corey Heim

Earns his First Career Cup Series Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Leads Greece to Bronze Medal
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Drops 28 Points in EuroBasket Finals
CFB

Indiana's Lee Beebe Jr. Out for Season with Knee Injury
Dennis Schröder

Dennis Schroder Named EuroBasket MVP
Bryce Eldridge

Giants to Promote Bryce Eldridge
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Progressing in Recovery
Jonathan Kuminga

Receives New Offer From Warriors
Kenneth Walker III

Bounces Back with Big Week 2 Performance
Bijan Robinson

Rushes for 143 Yards in Week 2
Justin Fields

Currently in Concussion Protocol
Cincinnati Bengals

Bengals Calling Around to Available Free-Agent Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow

to Undergo Surgery, Out at Least Three Months
Emil Heineman

Aiming to Take the "Next Step" This Season
Braeden Cootes

Good to Go for Camp
Ivan Fedotov

Blue Jackets Acquire Ivan Fedotov From Flyers
Garrett Crochet

Punches Out 12 in Win
Cole Ragans

to Return on Wednesday
George Kirby

Strikes Out 14 in Win
Quentin Grimes

Still Not Close to a New Contract Agreement
Joel Embiid

"Looking Slender, Spry and in Positive Spirits"
Ty Gibbs

Has Arguably his Best Career Drive, but Only Finishes 10th
Chase Elliott

Despite Crashing Out at Bristol, Chase Elliott Advances to Round of 12
Austin Dillon

Misses Round of 12 After Extremely Mediocre Bristol Run
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen Fails to Advance to Round of 12
Josh Berry

Finishes Last in All Three Round of 16 Races to Fail to Advance
CFB

Ryan Williams Explodes In Return To Field
CFB

Drew Allar Plays Mediocre Game In Blowout Win
CFB

LaNorris Sellers Exits Game In Blowout Loss
CFB

DJ Lagway Tosses Five Interceptions In Loss
CFB

Garrett Nussmeier Plays Game Manager in Saturday's Win
CFB

CJ Carr Remains Poised In Narrow Loss
CFB

John Mateer Leads Oklahoma In Rout
CFB

Arch Manning Struggles Against UTEP
CFB

Jeremiah Smith Impresses In Win
CFB

Sam Leavitt Shines As Arizona State Rebounds From Week 2 Loss
Ivan Demidov

Turning Heads in Rookie Camp
NHL

Calvin de Haan Signs With Swedish Team
Samuel Girard

Skates With Non-Contact Jersey
Mackenzie Blackwood

Dealing With Injury Ahead of Training Camp
Spencer Knight

Signs Three-Year Extension With Blackhawks
Chris Buescher

May have Another Solid Run at Bristol
Corey Perry

Out 6-8 Weeks Following Surgery
Kyle Busch

Should DFS Managers Roster Kyle Busch at Bristol?
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Is Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Too Risky to Consider Rostering at Bristol?
Michael McDowell

Could be A Solid Value Option For Bristol DFS Lineups
Chase Elliott

Probably Won't Factor in for Bristol Win
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Not as Strong at Bristol as Other Short Tracks
Alex Bowman

Needs to Win to Make Round of 12
Ross Chastain

has Never Led at Bristol but Has Been Pretty Consistent
Austin Dillon

Richmond Speed Unlikely to Carry Over to Bristol
Josh Berry

Might Run Well at Bristol, but Almost Certainly Won't Win to Advance
Justin Haley

Bristol One of Justin Haley's Few Recent Bright Spots
CFB

Austin Simmons Listed As Game-Time Decision Against Arkansas
CFB

Nico Iamaleava Struggles In Fourth Straight Loss
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Dealing With a "Tweak"
BUF

Alexandar Georgiev Joins Sabres on One-Year Deal
Corey Perry

Injured During Pre-Camp Skate
CFB

Antonio Williams Out Against Georgia Tech
CFB

CJ Bailey Flashes Again in Win Over Wake Forest
CFB

Jaxson Moi a Game-Time Decision for Tennessee on Saturday
Jean Silva

A Favorite At Noche UFC 3
Diego Lopes

Set For Noche UFC 3 Main Event
Rob Font

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
David Martinez

Set For Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
Rafa Garcia

An Underdog At Noche UFC 3
Jared Gordon

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Dustin Stoltzfus

Looks To Return To The Win Column
Kelvin Gastelum

In Dire Need Of Victory
Diego Ferreira

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Malcolm Brogdon

Heading to Knicks on One-Year Deal
Landry Shamet

Staying with the Knicks

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP