Scouting the Routing: 2024 Sony Open

The more things change, the more they stay the same -- as the opening event on the 2024 golfing calendar finished up identically to how we started 2023 -- with a runner-up finish at Kapalua. Theegala's lip out on 18 wasn't an ideal way to start the New Year, but at least we didn't have to suffer through another seven-shot collapse to tank a potential outright winner. In all seriousness though, it's great to have the PGA Tour back in action, and Chris Kirk played some faultless golf on Sunday afternoon to slam the door shut on the chase pack. All you can ask for on a given week is a chance coming down the stretch, and Theegala's final round 63 gave us a great deal of equity with two holes to play.

If 2024 wants to continue copy-pasting results from the previous season, I'd be completely fine with it this week on Oahu. As last year, Si Woo Kim cashed our first outright ticket of the year and quelled some of the pain caused by Collin Morikawa the previous week. The Sony Open may not have the raw star power as the Signature Event we saw in Kapalua last week, but it will feature the 2024 debuts of some of the PGA Tour's most highly touted prospects. From Adrien Dumont de Chassart (second to Ludvig Aberg in the PGA Tour University Rankings for much of last year; won on his professional debut last summer on the KFT), Ryo Hisatsune (one of the many exciting young talents coming out of Japan, this 21-year-old has already won four times around the world -- including besting one of the top fields of the DPWT season last fall in France), and Alexander Bjork (one of the DP World Tour's most prolific ball-strikers in 2023 -- wracking up nine top-10 finishes in 23 starts), there are plenty of names to monitor in the first full-field event of the calendar year!

Before we get into the odds board on tap for golf bettors on Monday morning, this piece will serve to set you up to make those crucial decisions before the market shifts later in the week. Without further ado, here is my comprehensive scouting report for Waialae Country Club and the 2024 Sony Open!  

The Golf Course

Waialae Country Club - Par 70; 7,044 yards

Past Champions

• 2023 - Si Woo Kim (-18) over Hayden Buckley
• 2022 - Hideki Matsuyama (-23) over Russell Henley (playoff)
• 2021 - Kevin Na (-21) over Chris Kirk/Joaquin Niemann
• 2020 - Cameron Smith (-11) over Brendan Steele (playoff)
• 2019 - Matt Kuchar (-22) over Andrew Putnam
• 2018 - Patton Kizzire (-17) over James Hahn (playoff)

Waialae by the Numbers (Off-The-Tee):

• Average Fairway Width -- 36.6 yards; 11th widest on the PGA Tour
• Driving Accuracy -- 56.5%; 13th Lowest on Tour
• Average Driving Distance -- 291.1 yards; 12th highest on Tour
• Missed Fairway Penalty -- 0.31; 11th lowest on Tour
• Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee Difficulty: +0.014; 10th easiest on Tour

Despite sitting just 80 miles from last week's venue at Kapalua, it's difficult to imagine two courses with more contrasting characters off of the tee. As opposed to the wide, sprawling hills at the Plantation Course, Waialae's tree-lined corridors invoke visions of more traditional, strategic designs like Harbour Town or Colonial.

With firmer turf conditions that narrow the effective width of these landing areas, tight doglegs that require tee shots to be shaped both ways, and only seven holes that measure over 450 yards, the key to conquering Waialae's tee boxes lies in a player's ability to be positionally sound. Looking back at some of the recent champions of this event, you'll see names like Si Woo Kim, Kevin Na, Matt Kuchar, and Hideki Matsuyama -- all of whom are known for their precision off-the-tee; each also experiencing routine success at other positional venues like Harbour Town, Colonial, or TPC Sawgrass.

Such is the congruence between these positional golf courses that I've included a new metric in my modeling process for weeks like this to replace general OTT stats: Positional Driving Acumen. This metric takes a combination of SG: OTT, Fairways Gained, and Good Drive %, and filters for player performance at golf courses I'd deem as similarly accuracy-intensive.

If a player has been able to exhibit a routine driving acumen on similarly positional golf courses, I have little doubt in his ability to answer any questions Waialae can ask off of the tee.

Waialae by the Numbers (Approach):

• Green in Regulation Rate -- 69.6%; 10th highest on the PGA Tour
• Strokes Gained: Approach Difficulty: +0.038; 3rd easiest on Tour
• Key Proximity Ranges:
  • 150-175 yards (accounted for 26.3% of approach shots last year)
  • 175-200 yards (19.9%)
  • 125-150 yards (17.8%)

As a general rule for these articles going forward, no matter how much detail I dive into regarding optimal driving skill sets, approach play will nearly always be the more important of the two ball-striking metrics pound-for-pound. And like its distant cousins in Harbour Town and Colonial, Waialae is very much a second-shot golf course.

Top-five finishers here since 2012 have gained an average of 3.82 strokes with their irons (compared to just 1.89 off the tee), and in that time, only Cameron Smith has managed to lift the Sony Open trophy whilst ranking outside the top 25 in SG: Approach.

When forecasting which yardages will be making up the bulk of a player's second shots this week, Waialae once again compares very favorably to its positional cousins in the Southeast. Like Harbour Town, Sedgefield, and Colonial, Waialae places a high emphasis on short/mid-iron play, as nearly two-thirds of historical approach shots have come from 125-200 yards. In particular, the range of 150-175 yards accounted for 26.3% of approaches last year; a mark bested only by Sedgefield in terms of second-shot market share.

As important as approach play remains in this week's projection, there's no need to reinvent the wheel when it comes to the key stats. SG: Approach, Birdie Chances Created, and Greens in Regulation Gained will make up the bulk of my short-term modeling, with a shift in focus to proximity splits from 125-200 yards when zooming out the past 12 months.

Waialae by the Numbers (Around the Greens):

• Scrambling Percentage -- 59.4%; 1.9% above Tour Average 
• Sand Save Difficulty -- +0.042; 4th easiest on Tour
• SG: Around the Green Difficulty: +0.036; 6th easiest on Tour

Although Waialae doesn't project to concede nearly the number of greens in regulation as we saw last week in Kapalua (low bar), it's difficult to find much reason to place a particularly significant weight on short-game stats in my modeling. Winners of the Sony Open since 2012 have done so whilst gaining a paltry 7.2% of their strokes around the greens, and only two champions here since 2014 have done so whilst ranking inside the top 10 for the week in that category.

With winning scores projected in the (-18) to (-22) range, the old adage of "pros putting for par" remains very applicable on Oahu this week, and additionally, the simplicity of the greenside surrounds at Waialae means that even those with elite short games will have difficulty separating themselves compared to the field average. Whether it's from the fairway, the rough, or the bunkers, Waialae ranks well inside the bottom half of courses on Tour in terms of SG: ARG difficulty.

The straightforwardness of Waialae's greenside surrounds has made short-game statistics a much more difficult proposition to project. In recent years, we've seen the likes of Adam Long, Martin Trainer, Hudson Swafford, and Rhein Gibson (all below-average chippers of the ball in the long term), lap the field around the greens at Waialae.

Of course, this isn't to say players with elite short games should be punished in the modeling. It's never a bad thing to possess a positive long-term baseline in a given stat, but I won't be treating around the green play as anything more than a tiebreaker in my decision-making process.

Waialae by the Numbers (Putting):

• Average Green Size -- 7,100 square feet 
• Agronomy -- Bermudagrass
• Stimpmeter -- 11-12
• 3-Putt Percentage: 2.7%
• Strokes Gained: Putting Difficulty: +0.003; 13th easiest on Tour

Much like the one-sided relationship I discussed between the two ball-striking metrics, putting has a similarly unyielding grip when compared to its short-game counterpart. Top-five finishers at Waialae have gained nearly four times the number of strokes with their putter compared to around the greens, and since 2012, all but two Sony Open Champions have gained at least 5.5 shots putting that week. With finishes of second, first, fourth, first, and fourth over the last five years, history will tell you that finding the best putter in the field this week will at least buy you a ticket on the Sunday afternoon carousel.

Of course, it would be unfair to discuss the historic volatility of projecting around the green play at Waialae without also acknowledging that putting remains the most unpredictable statistic to forecast on a weekly basis. However, when you continually see the likes of Webb Simpson, Matt Kuchar, Brendon Todd, and Andrew Putnam pop up at the top of Waialae's SG: Putting leaderboards, perhaps there is an angle we can take in better projecting this crucial metric.

Many of Waialae's most accomplished putters (Putnam, Simpson, Kuchar, Horschel, Todd, English, Kisner, etc.), either hail from the Southeast, or have experienced a great deal of success on the greens of other bermudagrass courses (Southwind, Sedgefield, Bay Hill, Harbour Town, etc). Waialae's greens do tend to roll on the faster side (especially when compared to last week), so I'll be looking extensively at a player's historic splits on fast, bermudagrass greens. If a player has been able to routinely gain strokes on these comparable complexes, that checks a large box toward his inclusion on my outright betting card.

Key Stats Roundup: 

• Generally more of an accuracy > distance week with the driver, but I'll also be diving into a player's overall driving acumen on similarly positional layouts (Colonial, Sedgefield, Sawgrass, etc.)
• Strokes Gained: Approach -- particular emphasis placed on proximity splits from 125-200 yards
• Birdie Chances Created
• Birdie or Better %
• Strokes Gained: Putting; particular emphasis on fast Bermuda greens
• Comp. Course History (Harbour Town, Sedgefield, Colonial, Mayakoba, etc).

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The Sunday Shortlist

Before the odds come out on Monday morning, here are 2-3 names I’ve identified as significant targets upon my initial research.

Tyrrell Hatton

Tyrrell Hatton EAGLES the 18th from off the green for an exceptional second-round 62, one off the course record. 👏

📺: Golf Channel & @peacock | @TheSentry pic.twitter.com/CPemOaaoyW

— Golf Channel (@GolfChannel) January 5, 2024

Despite drawing a few more marquee names than we're used to in the Sony Open field, there remains a fair amount of uncertainty when projecting the top of this week's oddsboard. Past Champions Hideki Matsuyama and Russell Henley didn't exactly ring in the New Year with a bang, beating just four of 57 players between the two of them at Sentry. Ludvig Aberg fired the worst round of the tournament, a four-over 77, in Saturday's blustery conditions, and Matt Fitzpatrick struggled mightily on with his iron play: losing a combined 4.6 shots to the field in four days at Kapalua, the fifth-worst mark in the field.

Ironically, the player who acquainted himself the best to the New Year was the one who, self-admittedly, came in the least prepared. Tyrrell Hatton fired rounds of 69-62-72-67 to record a very respectable 14th-place finish in his Kapalua debut -- despite tackling the 25-hour transit just five days before he was due to tee off in Round 1, and not exactly "looking after himself over the Christmas Holiday," -- YouTube his Friday Flash Interview for more details.

Despite the lack of preparation, Tyrrell gained nearly four shots to the field with his irons and putter and made just three bogies over four days on the Plantation Course. He'll be making his first start ever here at Waialae, but when accounting for his career as a whole, Hatton's would seem tailor-made for this positional venue. He's recorded top-10s across a variety of different comp. courses (Harbour Town, Colonial, Sedgefield, Sawgrass, PGA National), and won his only ever PGA Tour event on the lightning-fast Bermuda greens of Bay Hill.

Hatton's been a top-five putter on the entire PGA Tour over the last six months, he's always held a special affinity for faster bermuda greens, and ended 2023 with two torrid ball-striking displays at Wentworth and Dubai (+15.7 SG: APP in eight rounds). In my eyes, he should be considered the class of this week's field, but given the recent wins of Ludvig Aberg and Matt Fitzpatrick, and Henley/Hideki's extensive history at Waialae, it's difficult to say where books will value Tyrrell in the overall landscape. I'll be hoping for a number bordering on 20-1, but would be more than content with a 15/16.

Lucas Glover

Pin seeking with @Lucas_Glover_ ⛳️ pic.twitter.com/qzL15TJXJu

— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) August 17, 2023

Just when the luster was beginning to wear off of Glover's summer resurgence, the sweet-swinging South Carolinian started the New Year by gaining a field-best 5.3 strokes on Approach at Kapalua. His 29th-place finish outlines just how poorly he ran on Kapalua's greens (-7.02 SG: Putting), but notably, Glover has made much of his hay on faster bermuda greens in recent months. He was a neutral putter in the elite field to end last season at the Hero World Challenge, he gained a combined 8.1 strokes putting in his two wins in Memphis and Greensboro last August, and over his last three starts here at Waialae, Glover has gained an average of 0.23 strokes per round on the greens.

Of course, when you possess Lucas's ball-striking capabilities, you don't exactly need an all-world week on the greens to make your way into contention. Two years ago, Glover finished fifth here at the Sony Open despite being a net negative in the two short-game categories (-0.6 SG: ARG + Putting). He managed this feat by gaining a whopping 9.5 shots on approach (nearly three shots better than anyone in the field), and accomplished this feat despite rating out as a Tour-average iron player over the previous five months.

The 2024 iteration of Lucas Glover will not surprise anyone with a figure like that, as Glover ranks first in both SG: APP over his last 50 rounds and in my long-term proximity model. He's also fourth in Birdie Chances Created, ninth in Birdie or Better Rate, and his precision-intensive driving style will work perfectly around Waialae's claustrophobic layout (sixth in Fairways Gained; eighth in my Positional Driving Model).

The putter may be a volatile entity, but if he can recapture the magic he found on comparable complexes last summer, the rest of his game looks overdue for another trip to victory lane. With the uncertainty present at the top of the odds board this week, it's difficult to project where Glover will inevitably fall within the ranks of the more marquee names in this field. I'll be hoping for anything bordering on 30-1.

Ryo Hisatsune

A shot worthy of the club twirl 😍

Ryo Hisatsune sets up birdie to go 2⃣ clear at the top!#CazooOpenDeFrance pic.twitter.com/UYIJkHCyZN

— DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) September 24, 2023

I teased his inclusion in this section in our opening few paragraphs, but of all the young guns teeing it up for the first time as fully-fledged PGA Tour members this week, it is the 21-year-old from Okayama, Japan that I feel is the most likely to make a splash on the Hawaiian coast. Like Tom Kim before him, Ryo Hisatsune burst onto the Asian Tour scene as a teenager -- notching three wins on the Japanese Challenge Tour in his debut, age-18 season. He followed that up with a rock-solid 2022 on the top Japanese Tour before earning full status on the DP World Tour last season.

Hisatsune acquainted himself quickly with his new surroundings, as he notched one win, and 18 top-20s in 27 starts in Europe. Ryo ranked inside the top 10 on the DPWT in both SG: Putting and Driving Accuracy, and proved on multiple occasions that he's not intimidated by the big stage: finishing sixth in last fall's ZOZO Championship, eighth at the ISPS Australian Open, and first at Le Golf National -- the notoriously difficult Parisian venue which played host to the 2018 Ryder Cup and will be the site of our third ever Olympic Golf Championship later this summer.

The main red flag in Ryo's profile comes on Approach, where Hisatsune ranked outside the top 100 on the DP World Tour last season. However, at just 21 years old and coming into this event on the back of seven straight starts of 21st or better (between the DPWT and PGA), the upside looks to enticing to pass on in a field with this many question marks. I'll be hoping for anything in the 70-80/1 range, and among long shots, he'll be one of the first names I'm searching for on Monday morning's oddsboard.

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