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Antonio Losada looks at ADP variation of running backs to assess their situations for fantasy football. Should we buy into the rising ADP of these running backs for 2023?
Ah, our old friend, ADP. Average Draft Position indicates the mean position where a player is drafted over more than one fantasy football draft. You can consider it as the price you have to pay to draft and get a player on your team. A high ADP (that is actually a low-numbered ADP) means that a player is getting off draft boards early, and thus you'll need to draft him in the first rounds if you truly want him.
Low or high ADP values, though, are not gospel. Each of us fantasy GMs has our strategies and values players differently depending on what we think is the most important for them to have in terms of abilities. No matter what, ADPs are good to know how the "average value" of the "average GM" you'll be drafting against is for each asset (in this case, the players). By now, with free agency and the draft well finalized and just a few players left to be signed, it makes sense to go look at how ADPs are varying during the last month as we get closer to peak draft season.
In this series, I’ll highlight players at each skill position every few days that are seeing significant fluctuation from where they were the last time we check to where they are getting drafted now using data from FFPC drafts.
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Fantasy Football Running Backs - ADP Risers
Alexander Mattison, Minnesota Vikings
Do I need to explain anything about Mattison's ADP sudden rise? No, right? Just in case you have been living under a rock for the past few weeks, the Vikings finally took the appropriate measures and cut Dalvin Cook, thus putting Mattison in a prime position to take over the RB1 role and feeding him as many touches as he can handle next season.
Mattison has been one of the better rotational rushers for a few years now, so it's about time he gets the long-deserved RB1 role that he's played up to for a few years now. And hey, the Week 18 finale will definitely help his cause when it comes to getting drafted with a high-round pick this summer after he put up a fantastic 19 PPR points in the final game of the 2022 regular season.
Playing under Cook, Mattison has never topped a top-40 finish in PPR leagues. That said, he's logged more than 134 carries just once and never even reached 40 targets on pass plays. That, of course, is about to change. Thus the rise in price and ADP.
Even then, I wouldn't just chase drafting Mattison with a super high pick until he proves his RB1 chops. That's not going to be possible, obviously, and this is a gamble you have to make or pass on in advance and just pray for the production to eventually come your way or for whoever ends up with Mattison to draft a bust. Considering the ADP and the question marks, I'd pass.
Tank Bigsby, Jacksonville Jaguars
All reports coming from the Jaguars OTAs have been positive and have put Bigsby in a prime position, elevating both his status and his ADP entering the hotter months of the summer.
Bigsby has been said to be the "most impressive player at the rookie minicamp," to have "turned heads," to have "showcased three-down potential," and many more plaudits. That, paired with the comments from the very own RB1 of the Jaguars in Travis Etienne saying that he is "excited to have other quality RBs to share the load in 2023" have every fantasy GM dreaming about what might be coming their way if the land the rookie.
Now, for the bad. Some members of the Jaguars coaching staff have said that Bigsby "will have plenty of opportunity to become Etienne's backup," pouring some cold water over the hyped-up situation. Considering Bigsby is more of the "light" than the "heavyweight" variety of rusher, he would need to earn a bigger timeshare by putting on strong rushing performances instead of just relying on goal-line bull-rush scoring and plays of the like.
Bigsby is getting drafted relatively late right now, but the ADP has gone up to no end recently and it might start to approach a zone in which it wouldn't make much sense to draft him. Jacksonville is directed toward using an RBBC approach so I would either draft Etienne or just fade both men right now.
Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals
We haven't heard anything about Mixon and his potential suspension for the last month-plus. This is the typical case of "no news is the best news." Mixon could miss time but as far as we know that won't be the case, at least for now. Something similar happened last summer with Alvin Kamara, so consider this an encore, only with a different player at a different franchise.
Out of context, Mixon is well worth a top 50 pick. This man has finished inside the top-10 rushers in back-to-back years the last two seasons, even though he just played 14 games in 2022. Mixon has not been available at an ADP lower than 46 at any point in his career, even factoring in his rookie year all the way back in 2017.
The Bengals' veteran rusher has put up top-53 PPR points (all positions considered) in four of the last five seasons, and in the only year he failed to do so that was because he missed two-thirds of the games while averaging 16.6 FPPG.
So don't get surprised about the ADP going up and up. As long as we don't get any concerning and worrying news about his availability (and hell, even then) there is no reason to fade Mixon and not draft him this summer.
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