RADIO
We investigate the NFL playoff contenders as we head into Week 12 of the NFL season. Which teams improved their position and who fell following Week 11? What key games lay ahead as we look toward the postseason?
AFC Contender #1: Denver Broncos
Denver continues to win the fourth quarter, this time beating the Chiefs, who are the masters of owning the last possession. We saw Bo Nix stand tall against Chris Jones’ line, throwing for nearly 300 yards with big-time connections with Troy Franklin and Pat Bryant, who are shining alongside Courtland Sutton.
They’ll need to keep that up with J.K. Dobbins down, as we don’t know if Jaleel McLaughlin and RJ Harvey can truly carry an offense. Of course, Denver’s defense means the offense rarely has to go ballistic. They’ll relax during a Week 12 bye, and should be able to handle Washington and Las Vegas in Weeks 13-14 before facing four contenders (GB, JAX, KC, LAC).
AFC Contender #2: New England Patriots
Now at 9-2 after handling the Jets on Thursday Night Football, New England is barreling toward the postseason. Drake Maye is also rising to the top of the MVP race, with a healthy +86 point differential and 5-0 road record in the team’s sails.
The defense has played very well, especially against the run, and Andres Borregales is a perfect 29-of-29 on extra points since Week 2, with one missed field goal since Week 1. They can’t help the soft schedule, with most eyes waiting for Weeks 15 and 16 against the Bills and Ravens.
AFC Contender #3: Indianapolis Colts
The Colts recovered over the bye week with a cushy 8-2 record on the heels of Jonathan Taylor’s incredible 35-touch effort in Berlin. They now get a chance to deal a massive blow to the defending AFC champion Chiefs and cement their own status as a true contender, especially since Denver just pulled the feat off.
Jacksonville and Houston winning doesn’t help their division odds, but Indy is still two games up on the Jags and three on the Texans. Considering their perfect record at home thus far, any homefield advantage in the playoffs would loom large.
AFC Contender #4: Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh rebounded from last week’s loss with a strong effort against Cincinnati, though it was a Pyrrhic victory. Both Aaron Rodgers (wrist) and Jaylen Warren (ankle) went down, which will force the defense, Mason Rudolph, and Kenneth Gainwell to step up.
Sitting at 6-4 atop the AFC North is nice, but it could evaporate with games at Chicago, against Buffalo, and at Baltimore on the horizon. Then it’s Miami, two road games against Detroit and Cleveland, and a home game with Baltimore that could decide the division in Week 18. There is much to be settled here!
AFC Contender #5: Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen put the team on his back with a Herculean six-touchdown day to conquer the Buccaneers, but that’s not a bar anyone wants to set for winning. One wonders if Keon Coleman will step back into a starting role after being inactive following a missed meeting, as Tyrell Shavers looked sharp as the deep threat.
They’ll hope that Dalton Kincaid can swiftly recover from his hamstring injury as well, with downfield playmakers few and far between in Buffalo. Allen will need others to step up against a very tough Houston defense next week!
AFC Contender #6: Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers need this Week 12 bye to figure out how to move the ball in the face of constant pressure. The offensive line is in trouble, and newcomer Trevor Penning was benched by the fourth quarter of Sunday’s 35-6 embarrassing loss. Neither Rashawn Slater nor Joe Alt is coming back, which should necessitate more chip blocks on the edge from supporting tight ends.
They’ll also hope to get Omarion Hampton back, as Kimani Vidal exited due to a thigh injury, which means Trayveon Williams could be the starting RB against the Raiders in Week 13. Then they face the Eagles, Chiefs, Cowboys, Texans, and Broncos, which is quite the gauntlet. The inconsistency does not portend a deep playoff run.
AFC Contender #7: Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jags put together a strong rushing attack with 60 minutes of intense defensive pressure to blow the Chargers out and move to 6-4. They could be 8-2 if they played a strong fourth quarter against the Bengals and Texans, but ifs and coulds get you nowhere.
Owning a head-to-head win over the 5-5 Chiefs could prove massive, but they’ll need to win most of their divisional games ahead as well. With a seasonal split against Houston already, Jacksonville is 1-1 in the AFC South, while Houston is already 3-1. Two games against the Colts and a road game in Denver are the statement matchups left.
AFC Contender #8: Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs are looking awfully vulnerable at 5-5 after Denver’s last-second field goal ended the Week 11 affair. Despite leading the division with a +73 point differential, they find themselves on the wrong side of one-score game variance, especially after last year’s wildly good run.
The mile-high loss pushes their road record down to 1-4, which is frightful given the low likelihood that they can garner more than one home playoff game at this time. Will Arrowhead Stadium help fuel them to a critical win over the Colts, or will we face the reality of Patrick Mahomes’ squad at 5-6 through 11 games?
AFC Contender #9: Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore eked by Cleveland to secure a fourth straight win, which pulls them even at 5-5 with a 2-0 divisional record. They were trailing 16-10 late, but lucked out and took advantage of an overmatched Shedeur Sanders after Dillon Gabriel exited due to concussion protocol.
The Ravens should snag another win against the Jets in Week 12 before a six-game stretch run with the Patriots, Packers, and both games against the Bengals and Steelers. While the arrow is pointing up due to their recent play, they cannot play against those more complete teams as they just did against Cleveland.
AFC Contender #10: Houston Texans
Davis Mills is performing well as C.J. Stroud’s (concussion) backup, but this team is built on its defense. DeMeco Ryans’ unit leads the NFL with only 163 points against, which has helped take the pressure off the offense. That said, Mills and company still pulled off that overwhelming 26-point fourth quarter to tie up the seasonal series with the Jaguars in Week 10.
They say defense wins championships, but can the offense do enough to get them into the dance? The team will either be put or removed from the map with games against BUF, IND, and KC over the next three weeks.
NFC Contender #1: Philadelphia Eagles
Philly’s defense carried the team to a Sunday night win over Detroit, which keeps them atop the NFC thanks to a head-to-head win over fellow 8-2 club, the Rams. Even though Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown, and the offense don’t look quite right, the defense is in Super Bowl-caliber form.
A win over the Cowboys in Dallas should all but ice the NFC East. A Week 17 road date at Buffalo is the most difficult game remaining, but most games should see the Eagles favored. They’ll want to find their offensive rhythm before the postseason, but reaching the playoffs does not appear in question.
NFC Contender #2: Los Angeles Rams
The Rams are roaring through a five-game win streak, which includes wins against the Seahawks, Ravens, Jaguars, and 49ers. Don’t forget a Week 4 win over the Colts as well. A one-score road loss to Philadelphia and an overtime loss to San Francisco are the only blemishes on the ledger thus far.
The NFC West is tight, so there’s little margin for error. Let’s see how a homeshowdown with Tampa Bay goes, and then most will look forward to Week 15’s matchup with Detroit before a rematch with Seattle.
NFC Contender #3: Chicago Bears
The Bears remain an anomaly at 7-3 despite more points allowed (265) than scored (258). Everyone has rightfully pointed to the soft schedule to date as a reason not to buy into being a true contender, but if you’re atop your division by Week 12, then we can’t totally ignore it! Now, it’s sink or swim with the roughest strength of schedule ahead.
Cleveland is the only team remaining with a losing record, and that defense can never be overlooked. With Detroit and Green Bay right on their heels and a 1-2 division record, the Bears must prove they belong. This starts with a home game against the Steelers, who may be starting a backup QB in Mason Rudolph. Then, Chicago will travel to Philadelphia for their biggest test yet.
NFC Contender #4: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs have lost three of their last four games after falling to Josh Allen’s stellar late push. Carolina is suddenly just a half-game back at 6-5, but Tampa Bay should enjoy better matchups and health soon. These recent losses have been the Lions, Patriots, and Bills, with two of them on the road. They’ll stay on the road and take on the Rams, which is going to be a tough one.
If Bucky Irving, Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin become available in December, then they can hang with anyone. If they fall to the Rams, they’ll then face Arizona, New Orleans, Atlanta, Miami, and two against Carolina. Most of those appear winnable, but they may need to win both games against the Panthers in Weeks 16 and 18 to claim the division.
NFC Contender #5: Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks hit a speed bump against the Rams, with four turnovers out of Sam Darnold proving to be the difference in a tight 21-19 loss. It’s a testament to the rest of the team that they still barely lost, but now all three losses can be connected to a Darnold turnover.
They now get a softer stretch against the Titans, Vikings, and Falcons before back-to-back home games against the Colts and Rams. Can Darnold prove capable of standing tall against playoff-caliber pressure when it matters?
NFC Contender #6: Green Bay Packers
Green Bay fell behind the Giants early on Sunday, but battled back to a 27-20 win despite losing star running back Josh Jacobs to a knee injury. The good news is that he has avoided major injury and is listed as day-to-day with a contusion, but it still may be Emanuel Wilson suiting up as the starter for Week 12 against Minnesota.
Inconsistent offensive play has spooked many Packer faithful, but strong showings against Detroit, Denver, Baltimore, and a double-dip against Chicago in Weeks 13-17 can turn that tide.
NFC Contender #7: San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers crushed the Cardinals with a 41-point showing on the road to improve to 7-4, which is only good for third place in the cutthroat NFC West. Brock Purdy tossed three TDs in his return, and Christian McCaffrey also tallied three TDs of his own. Though Ricky Pearsall didn’t record a catch, it was great to see him running alongside Jauan Jennings and George Kittle again.
The team still desperately needs a disruptor on the defensive front, but a healthy offense can keep pace with most opponents. Upcoming games against the Panthers, Browns, and Titans could see them jump to 10-4 before a road showdown with the Colts.
NFC Contender #8: Detroit Lions
Detroit couldn’t get the ball moving as Jared Goff’s struggles in the cold continued on a chilly Sunday night in Philadelphia. They only mustered nine points on the evening, but the good news is that they also held Philly to 16 points. If Goff’s accuracy requires the home dome conditions during winter playoff games, then winning out to a division title is imperative.
They’ve beaten the Bears but also lost to the Packers in the season opener, and sit with a 1-2 division record. Optimists can point to the next six games being played in a dome, with the only two road games at the Rams and Vikings. Beating the Packers and splitting the season series in Week 13 feels like a must-win affair.
NFC Contender #9: Carolina Panthers
Will the real Bryce Young please stand up? The signal-caller threw for 448 yards and three TDs against a good Atlanta defense after his last three games combined yielded just 364 yards and one score.
Dave Canales did a good job at getting his star rookie receiver, Tetairoa McMillan, into the slot for more optimal looks, but Young also just threw extremely well. It still took a field goal in overtime to put away the Falcons.
Carolina now sits at 6-5 with a nasty -42 point differential, but all that matters is that they’re within a half-game of division-leading Tampa Bay. They’ll play the Bucs in Weeks 16 and 18, but would greatly benefit by winning 2-of-3 against the 49ers, Rams, and Saints (who they lost to in Week 10) before then. There is also a tough home game against Seattle sandwiched in between the Tampa contests, so they have their work cut out for them.
