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Jackson's Week 10 college football predictions for all ranked games and top-25 matchups. His picks for Missouri vs. Vanderbilt, Memphis vs. South Florida, and more.
Week 10 College Football Predictions
The College Football Playoff is just around the corner, and the first CFP rankings will be dropped on Tuesday. You may think you know how the 12-team field will look, but there are surely several shocking upsets and shakeups to happen down the stretch.
The Week 10 slate is highlighted by a virtual CFP elimination game between Oklahoma and Tennessee, but there’s no shortage of ranked teams in tough spots this week. Without wasting any more time, let’s get to the picks for all top 25 matchups!
No. 25 Memphis at Rice
Memphis was shocked by UAB in Week 8. However, the Tigers rebounded nicely in Week 9 against mighty USF and outscored the Bulls 17-0 in the fourth quarter. Ryan Silverfield has his squad in the thick of the College Football Playoff discussion, and as long as Brendon Lewis stays healthy, it’s difficult to find another loss on the schedule.
Rice is 1-3 in conference play despite not facing North Texas or USF yet. This one should get ugly.
Prediction: Memphis 30, Rice 14
No. 23 USC at Nebraska
It looked like Nebraska had a clear path to an 11-1 record following its loss to Michigan early in the 2025 campaign, but the Huskers haven’t looked the same since the “Matt Rhule to Penn State” rumors began. Minnesota embarrassed Nebraska two weeks ago, and the Huskers’ narrow win over Northwestern wasn’t impressive.
Meanwhile, USC is off a bye following its loss to Notre Dame, and quarterback Jayden Maiava is playing like a classic Lincoln Riley quarterback. I don’t think Nebraska is going to shut down USC’s offense, and they surely can’t keep up in a shootout.
Prediction: USC 34, Nebraska 17
No. 22 Houston vs. West Virginia
Houston has quietly put together a 7-1 record, and its only loss is to Texas Tech. The Cougars would need some help to reach the Big 12 title game and the College Football Playoff, but there is a narrow path for Willie Fritz, one of the country’s most underrated coaches.
With Conner Weigman at home against one of the Big 12’s worst defenses, this feels like a clear mismatch in favor of Houston.
Prediction: Houston 31, West Virginia 14
No. 21 Michigan vs. Purdue
Michigan isn’t a serious College Football Playoff threat, but the Wolverines’ only two losses are against current top-25 opponents. Five of six victories for Michigan have come by at least two scores, and another inferior opponent is rolling into Ann Arbor this Saturday.
The Boilermakers simply don’t have the talent to compete with Bryce Underwood and company in Year 1 under Barry Odom.
Prediction: Michigan 35, Purdue 7
No. 17 Cincinnati at No. 24 Utah
ESPN’s College Gameday will be in town for the night game in Salt Lake City this Saturday. And if you didn’t know, Utah has one of the most underrated environments in college football. Scott Satterfield has done a heck of a job with the Bearcats, and Brendan Sorsby has legitimately been one of the best quarterbacks in the country this season.
However, Cincinnati has not faced a daunting road environment this season and will have to travel 1,500+ miles west to take on this challenge. I expect Utah’s defense and Kyle Whittingham to be at their best in this must-win matchup.
Prediction: Utah 30, Cincinnati 17
No. 16 Louisville at Virginia Tech
After a big-time upset of Miami, the Cardinals survived a brief scare from Boston College last weekend. It was a bit surprising to see Jeff Brohm’s team come out flat, but it’s better to learn from a win than a loss. Virginia Tech has been much better since head coach Brent Pry was let go, winning three of its last five games.
Since this game is in Blacksburg, I’m tempted to call “upset alert.” But after the scare last week against a far inferior opponent, Louisville should enter Lane Stadium ready to make a statement.
Prediction: Louisville 44, Virginia Tech 24
No. 15 Virginia at California
Virginia controls its own destiny in the ACC race, as the Week 2 loss to NC State did not count as a conference game. The Cavaliers posted a shaky performance last week in a one-point win over North Carolina that was decided by one yard in overtime, but Tony Elliott’s squad continues to find a way to win. I think that comes to an end in Week 10.
Cal has come out on the wrong side of some close games, but they are competitive, and the travel from Charlottesville to Berkley (nearly 2,800 miles) is an underrated factor in team performance. Cal QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele could have a big breakout game here. I just don’t trust Virginia in a long road trip after a bad showing in Week 9.
Prediction: Cal 27, Virginia 24
No. 14 Tennessee vs. No. 18 Oklahoma
Oklahoma’s defense looked historically great through its first seven games. But when you look into the quality of offenses it faced during that stretch, the raw stats become less impressive. Ole Miss put up 400+ yards and 34 points on the Sooners in Norman last week, so it’s difficult to imagine Tennessee not finding a ton of offensive success in Neyland Stadium.
Tennessee’s defense can’t stop anyone, though, so we might be looking at an old-school Big 12 shootout on Saturday night. John Mateer hasn’t looked the same since coming back from thumb surgery, so I favor Tennessee in that kind of game. Joey Aguilar is clicking on all cylinders, and his stud group of wideouts continues to impress.
Prediction: Tennessee 42, Oklahoma 38
No. 13 Texas Tech at Kansas State
Unfortunately, quarterback Will Hammond suffered a torn ACL last week and is out for the season, but starter Behren Morton is back for the Red Raiders. Texas Tech is still the favorite to win the Big 12, but it looks mortal after the last few weeks. Meanwhile, Kansas State is playing solid football after a disastrous start to the season, winning three of its last four contests.
Texas Tech isn’t safe in this matchup, but its talent will prevail and make enough plays in the end to stay in the thick of the College Football Playoff hunt.
Prediction: Texas Tech 31, Kansas State 30
No. 12 Notre Dame vs. Boston College
Notre Dame is coming off a bye week and faces the worst team in the ACC. It’s not tough to predict how this one will go, though the Irish have had trouble getting up for inferior opponents in the past under Marcus Freeman. That said, Notre Dame has to win out to make the College Football Playoff, and I don’t think this is the spot where they potentially slip up.
Prediction: Notre Dame 55, Boston College 20
No. 10 Miami at SMU
Like Texas Tech, Miami looked like it would run through its conference en route to a clear CFP bid, but Louisville had other plans. The Canes rebounded in a win over Stanford last week, but facing SMU on the road will be a much tougher test.
When Carson Beck is dealing, it’s hard to imagine Miami losing. But he’s been prone to multiple-turnover games, which is the path for SMU to steal a win here. The Mustangs will put up a fight behind Kevin Jennings at QB, but Miami will prevail.
Prediction: Miami 31, SMU 21
No. 9 Vanderbilt at No. 20 Texas
Arch Manning is questionable to play in Week 10 after leaving last week’s game in overtime and entering the concussion protocol. However, it’s unclear whether losing Manning would hurt the Longhorns significantly. If this game were in Nashville, it’d be an easy call, but Texas’ defense should give Diego Pavia issues on Saturday in Austin.
Ultimately, Texas hasn’t played well enough offensively to trust it in a matchup with the gritty Diego Pavia on the other side. Vandy wins again.
Prediction: Vanderbilt 23, Texas 20
No. 8 Georgia Tech at NC State
Georgia Tech remains undefeated, but the Yellow Jackets are lacking an impressive win over a quality opponent, and they can’t check that box in Week 10 in a matchup with the 4-4 (1-3) Wolfpack. NC State quarterback CJ Bailey is a dangerous quarterback, and Georgia Tech will face the night crowd in Raleigh this Saturday.
Vegas set this like at NC State -5.5, indicating these teams are much closer than the standings suggest. I think this is the week Georgia Tech suffers its first loss.
Prediction: NC State 38, Georgia Tech 34
No. 7 Ole Miss vs. South Carolina
Ole Miss took care of business in Norman last week and can likely afford another loss, but it shouldn’t come here against the South Carolina offense that is statistically one of the worst in Power 4 football. Lane Kiffin has built up enough trust to think his offense won’t fall flat at home against an inferior opponent, and this year’s South Carolina team lacks the upset magic that last year’s had.
The rumors of Kiffin being targeted by Florida and LSU could become a problem, but the team played with that hanging over its head last week and came out alive.
Prediction: Ole Miss 33, South Carolina 14
No. 5 Georgia vs. Florida (in Jacksonville)
Records can often be thrown out the window in rivalry games like this one, and Florida is entering its first game without the recently fired Billy Napier. Florida has the talent to match up with just about anyone in the country, but it has not materialized.
Meanwhile, Georgia isn’t as dominant as it used to be, but it keeps finding a way to win. Coaches as great as Kirby Smart tend to do that. This should be another close game in the series, but the Bulldogs are battle-tested and again — find ways to win when it matters.
Prediction: Georgia 23, Florida 18
No. 2 Indiana at Maryland
Indiana has an argument to be ranked the No. 1 team in the country based on its best win (Oregon) and country-leading average margin of victory (29.0). Despite not stacking up with the powerhouses of college football on paper, Curt Cignetti’s squad looks every bit as good as the top teams like Ohio State, Texas A&M, Georgia, and Alabama.
Maryland has lost three straight games, but it has been competitive in all of them. That won’t be the case here.
Prediction: Indiana 45, Maryland 13
No. 1 Ohio State vs. Penn State
In the preseason, this looked like a heck of a game. Penn State vs. Ohio State was supposed to have Big Ten and CFP implications, but by now we all know the Nittany Lions’ season imploded, and James Franklin is unemployed. Both teams are coming off bye weeks, and this version of the rivalry has real blowout potential.
However, I expect Penn State to come out and put up a fight, at least initially. This team still oozes talent and won’t be an easy out, but the Buckeyes are too dominant, and it’ll show in the second half after a tight start.
Prediction: Ohio State 31, Penn State 16
