RADIO
Justin's 12-team College Football Playoff prediction ahead of Week 9 of the 2025 college football season. Projections for all 12 teams, including Ohio State and Indiana.
Week 9 College Football Playoff Projections
We had an eventful week in college football, headlined by Texas Tech, Ole Miss, and Miami all suffering their first loss of the season.
Two of those teams remain in the rankings this week, albeit at a lower spot than last week. The third, Texas Tech, falls out, but still has a clear path back into the playoff field, as the Red Raiders just need to win out. Here’s what the CFP field looks like after a wild Week 8 of the college football season.
12. South Florida
Last Week: 12th
The debate about who is better between South Florida and Memphis will be settled on the field on Saturday, but much of the hype surrounding that game is now gone following a 31-24 loss to UAB this week that knocked the Tigers from the undefeated ranks.
South Florida, meanwhile, continued to show that it’s the best Group of Five school in the country with a dominant 48-13 win over FAU. The team should sail to the American title game, where the task for a Bulls playoff spot becomes very simple: win that game and you’re in.
The more interesting question is what happens if South Florida loses to, like, Memphis or Navy in the regular season but goes on to win the American championship. Would they still be in over, for example, a one-loss San Diego State or UNLV if one of those wins the Mountain West?
11. Oklahoma
Last Week: 11th
Vanderbilt has a strong argument for this spot as well, as the Commodores are ranked higher in the AP poll and have a “better” loss than Oklahoma does, but I’m keeping the Sooners here because…well, because I still think they’re the better team.
Yes, the Texas loss was bad, largely because John Mateer didn’t look like himself after returning from a hand injury. That can be excused if Mateer looks like himself for the upcoming gauntlet of five ranked teams in a row, though Oklahoma probably has to go 4-1 — or maybe 3-2 if the losses are competitive ones to Alabama and Ole Miss — to stay in this position.
10. BYU
Last Week: Not Ranked
With Texas Tech losing to Arizona State on Saturday, BYU finds itself in the driver’s seat in the Big 12. That’s something no one expected after the late offseason departure of quarterback Jake Retzlaff for Tulane, but Bear Bachmeier has stepped up well, throwing nine touchdown passes and rushing for eight more.
The Cougars have played a relatively easy schedule and the wins haven’t always been that impressive, but we can’t ignore a 7-0 Big 12 team.
9. Georgia Tech
Last Week: 1oth
You might be wondering why I have Georgia Tech below Miami despite both teams playing in the ACC and the Yellow Jackets being undefeated. Quite simply, it’s because I still view Miami as the better team, and I imagine the committee does as well.
That’s not to disrespect what Georgia Tech has done. Led by quarterback Haynes King, the Yellow Jackets are 7-0 after a 27-18 road win against Duke. They have four more winnable games in a row before ending the regular season with a non-conference game against Georgia.
8. Ole Miss
Last Week: Fifth
Ole Miss drops a few spots after its first loss of the season, a 43-35 defeat against Georgia. That loss isn’t a huge surprise considering how good the Bulldogs have been this year, and it isn’t going to kill the team’s chances of making the playoffs.
That’s because Ole Miss has a really easy schedule remaining, at least by SEC standings. This week’s road matchup against Oklahoma is the last ranked opponent left on the Rebels’ schedule.
7. Miami
Last Week: Second
I’m of two minds about Miami right now. Obviously, the team had to drop fairly far after the loss to Louisville. Quarterback Carson Beck was awful, throwing four interceptions and zero touchdowns in a shocking defeat.
On the other hand, Miami looked clearly like a top-four team in the country before this loss. The team had three wins over teams that were ranked at the time, including a blowout win over South Florida, arguably the best G5 school in the nation. Miami dropping below seventh feels like it’d be a mistake based on the overall body of work.
6. Oregon
Last Week: Eighth
Oregon’s biggest issue here is that it’s going to be pretty difficult to get back into one of those four first-round bye positions because there isn’t really a chance for a marquee win left on the schedule. There’s a good chance that the only regular-season opponent Oregon faces that will be ranked at the end of the season is Indiana, and the Ducks lost that game 30-20.
All Oregon can do at this point is exactly what it did against Rutgers this week, which is to rout its opponents. The Ducks defeated the Scarlet Knights 56-10, and this week’s home game against Wisconsin should go about the same.
5. Georgia
Last Week: Seventh
Georgia has now won three in a row since a 24-21 loss to Alabama that continues to age better and better, as the Tide look more and more like legitimate championship contenders each week.
This week, Georgia handed Ole Miss its first loss of the season, outdueling the Rebels 43-35. I’m not sold on the Georgia pass defense, but the final five regular-season opponents probably can’t out-duel Gunner Stockton. Maybe Haynes King and Georgia Tech can in the season finale, but the final three SEC games should be light work.
4. Alabama
Last Week: Fourth
Since dropping its season opener to Florida State, Alabama has won six in a row, including four consecutive wins over ranked opponents. Ty Simpson might be the Heisman frontrunner at the moment and the Tide’s final two games against ranked teams will be in Tuscaloosa.
Simply put, Alabama shouldn’t lose another regular-season game. The team should be on a collision course for an SEC title game meeting with Texas A&M, and if both enter that game undefeated in conference play, both should walk away with first-round byes, though I could see the argument against giving a bye to a two-loss Bama, which makes that game a little more important for the Tide.
3. Texas A&M
Last Week: Sixth
The Aggies jump to third this week and notably leapfrog over Alabama. That’s not to say the Aggies are better than the Tide; on a neutral field, I’d expect Alabama to win a game between those two teams.
No, the Aggies are here for the simple fact that they’re the only undefeated team in the SEC. Mike Elko’s squad is 7-0 overall and 4-0 in SEC games, though the team’s toughest conference opponents are still to come, starting this week with a road visit to LSU.
2. Indiana
Last Week: Third
Indiana moved to 7-0 with its 38-13 win over Michigan State and doesn’t face another ranked opponent all season.
What’s going to happen here feels pretty simple. Indiana wins out. Ohio State wins out. The Big Ten title game will then determine who the No. 1 seed is in the playoffs. Indiana has the quarterback advantage with Fernando Mendoza, but will that be enough?
1. Ohio State
Last Week: First
Ohio State’s path to an undefeated regular season is slightly tougher than Indiana’s since the Buckeyes close the regular season on the road against Michigan. The Wolverines have four wins in a row against the Buckeyes.
Still, Ohio State should win that. The defending champions are the best team in the country. Since a close win over Texas to open the season, the team has faced basically no resistance, winning big over every team that it’s faced, including this week’s 34-0 win over Wisconsin, the sixth time in seven games that Ohio State held its opponent under 10 points.
First-Round CFP Matchups
- No. 12 South Florida at No. 5 Georgia
- No. 11 Oklahoma at No. 6 Oregon
- No. 10 BYU at No. 7 Miami
- No. 9 Georgia Tech at No. 8 Ole Miss
