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Justin's 12-team College Football Playoff prediction ahead of Week 11 of the 2025 college football season. Projections for all 12 teams, including Ohio State and Indiana.
Week 11 College Football Playoff Projections
It’s here: the first official CFP rankings. The committee put out its first official rankings, which currently have these 12 teams making the playoffs, in order from highest seed to lowest seed: Ohio State, Indiana, Texas A&M, Georgia, Ole Miss, BYU, Texas Tech, Oregon, Notre Dame, Virginia, and Memphis.
It’s a bit of a change from my projection last week, which had Vanderbilt, Miami, and Georgia Tech all in the field, but all three teams suffered losses last week, which explains the difference.
So, we know what the committee thinks at the moment, so let’s shift our focus going forward. Instead of saying what would happen if the season ended now, we’re taking future projections into account as well. Let’s make sense of what the 12-team playoff might look like when the season is over.
12. Memphis
CFP Committee Ranking: Not Ranked
No Group of Five school was ranked in the initial poll, but the committee announced that Memphis was the highest-ranked G5 school, even if the Tigers didn’t make the top 25.
That an American Conference school holds this spot at the moment just solidifies what I’ve thought for once, which is that whoever wins the American championship game will be the G5 playoff team. Memphis looks like the best team at the moment, but anything can still happen as six teams have only one conference loss. This thing is still wide open.
11. Virginia
CFP Committee Ranking: 14th
The ACC race is now wide open after Georgia Tech and Miami’s losses, but Virginia is in the driver’s seat. The team is technically undefeated in ACC play and doesn’t face a ranked team for the remainder of the regular season.
I say “technically” because of a weird scheduling quirk where the Cavaliers lost 35-31 to NC State earlier this season in a non-conference game. See, the ACC has 17 teams now, so those teams weren’t supposed to play as conference opponents this year, but the schools wanted to play each other anyway, so they scheduled a non-conference game. Because of that, UVA is the only undefeated team in ACC play despite losing to an NC State team that is 2-3 in ACC play. It’s weird, but it might be the thing that gets Virginia into the playoffs.
10. Texas Tech
CFP Committee Ranking: Eighth
Texas Tech is eighth in the official rankings, but the team’s playoff path is cloudy because the team plays BYU this week and also could theoretically face BYU again in the Big 12 title game. Lose both of those games, and the Red Raiders are out.
In this case, though, we’re going to assume the teams split the games, and most importantly that they split in such a way that BYU wins this weekend but Tech wins the Big 12 title game to lock itself into the playoffs. I just think it’s more fun that way? I’ll explain why when we get to the BYU section.
9. Notre Dame
CFP Committee Ranking: 10th
After an 0-2 start to the season, the Irish have somehow found their way into the playoff projections, and at the moment, Notre Dame is the only two-loss school with a playoff spot.
Is there some recency bias there? Sure! Notre Dame is ahead of three different one-loss ACC teams at the moment, and the team is 1-2 against teams currently ranked in the AP poll, with no more ranked teams remaining. Still, the committee clearly values what’s happened lately more than what’s happened in the past, and Notre Dame has an easy shot to win out here.
8. Oregon
CFP Committee Ranking: Ninth
No, Oregon is no longer a viable title contender. The team only beating Wisconsin by 14 points kind of proved that.
However, the Ducks are still easily in line for a playoff spot, though a Nov. 22 game against USC could throw a wrench into those plans. The team is also very unlikely to make the Big Ten title game, which means it won’t have a final chance to get a big win and jump up the standings.
7. BYU
CFP Committee Ranking: Seventh
So, let’s go back to that previous scenario where BYU beats Texas Tech this weekend but loses to the Red Raiders in the conference title game. That would lock a two-loss Texas Tech team in, but what would it do for a one-loss BYU team?
I’d have to think the committee would not only still have BYU in the field, but would also have BYU ranked ahead of Texas Tech, despite not winning the conference, right? If they’re 1-1 against each other but BYU has no other losses while Tech has a loss to unranked Arizona State on its resume, the Cougars deserve a higher seed.
6. Ole Miss
CFP Committee Ranking: Sixth
Ole Miss should just cruise to a sixth-place finish in the final CFP rankings at this point. The Rebels won’t be ahead of Georgia without another Georgia loss since the Bulldogs beat Ole Miss, and the team won’t be passing Alabama or Texas A&M, provided both make the SEC title game, so sixth is pretty much where this program is stuck, provided it wins its final three games.
Luckily, the team should. It won’t lose to The Citadel this week, which just leaves a home game against Florida, followed by the Egg Bowl against a Mississippi State team that’s 1-4 in conference play.
5. Georgia
CFP Committee Ranking: Fifth
Like Ole Miss, Georgia is pretty locked in here and needs help to move up. Winning out conference games against Mississippi State and Texas won’t change anything since the Bulldogs don’t control their own conference destiny.
Also a concern: the annual non-conference season finale against Georgia Tech. Maybe a convincing win there could get Georgia the four seed if either the Big Ten or SEC title game loser is blown out, but there’s no guarantee of that, while a loss to Georgia Tech would send the team tumbling down to somewhere around…the eight or nine seed?
4. Texas A&M
CFP Committee Ranking: Third
Texas A&M is third in the committee’s ranking. I have the Aggies fourth, largely because I believe Alabama wins when the teams theoretically face in the SEC title game. As long as that’s a close defeat, though, A&M should hold on to a bye. What this team has done in Mike Elko’s second season has been astounding.
That’s not to say A&M is locked in here. Two upcoming games against ranked opponents could derail things for the Aggies, though at the moment, I believe A&M pulls off wins in those games, even with both on the road.
3. Alabama
CFP Committee Ranking: Fourth
Alabama emerged from a very tough stretch with an undefeated conference record as the team knocked off Georgia, Vanderbilt, Missouri, and Tennessee. The games were sometimes close, but the Crimson Tide still emerged as victors.
Only one ranked team remains on the schedule for Alabama: Oklahoma on Nov. 15. Other than that, the team’s only other obstacles to an SEC title game spot are LSU and Auburn, two teams that have fired their head coaches during this season.
2. Indiana
CFP Committee Ranking: Second
We’re heading for a huge showdown in the Big Ten title game between Ohio State and Indiana, barring some shocking loss between now and then.
Indiana’s got the No. 1 scoring offense and No. 3 scoring defense in the nation. The team has three games left and all are very, very winnable: Penn State, Wisconsin, Purdue.
Is there some concern that this team has faced light competition all season? Sure! But the Hoosiers have taken care of business every week.
1. Ohio State
CFP Committee Ranking: First
The defending national champions remain No. 1 in the CFP projections. The 8-0 Buckeyes have the best defense in the nation, allowing just 6.9 points per game. If there’s a team that’s capable of slowing down Indiana, it’s this one.
The Hoosiers might have the better quarterback, but the Buckeyes have the better weapons. No team comes close to the one-two punch at wide receiver of Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate.
First-Round CFP Matchups
- No. 12 Memphis at No. 5 Georgia
- No. 11 Virginia at No. 6 Ole Miss
- No. 10 Texas Tech at No. 7 BYU
- No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oregon
