RADIO
The first round of the US Open is in the books, and we had Rickie Fowler and Xander Schauffele both shoot 62 today to co-lead the tournament by two shots over Wyndham Clark and Dustin Johnson in T3. The course played really easy by US Open standards today, but we can expect some wind and aggressive pin placements tomorrow to dial back the birdies a little while the course starts to firm up a little.
This article is going to take a look at showdown slates after each completed round. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me. My DFS style is very ownership-centric. More often than not, this can make you feel like an unsuccessful DFS player. Every now and then when a sneaky, low-owned golfer comes through for you, it is all worth it. In this article, we are going to break down the previous round's top performers and duds and use that information to derive a player pool full of upside and leverage.
The general logic to showdown has been to target golfers who played well the day before and particularly those who hit their irons well. This makes sense as you want to roster players who are playing good golf right now. These players will be higher-owned and chalkier than golfers in the same price range who had an off day, particularly with their irons. These are the golfers I am gravitating towards, as they could very easily bounce the following day at half the ownership.
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Round 1 Analysis
AM vs. PM
PM wave played -0.4 easier than AM.
Best Scores
Ownership
Going into Round 2, these are the color codes we will be using to identify who we want to target. Think of it as a traffic light with four colors. Stop at mega chalk and go when we see leverage that makes sense.
By taking a look at yesterday's ownership, we can get an idea of where people will be willing to go in Round 2 (DK points include finishing position).
- Mega chalk: A popular player who played well yesterday.
- Chalk: a) A popular player who played okay yesterday, b) A less popular player who played well yesterday.
- Pivots: a) A popular player who played poorly yesterday, b) A less popular player who played okay yesterday.
- Leverage: A less popular player who played poorly yesterday.
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Round 2 Strategy
There definitely looks to be some wind tomorrow afternoon compared to the AM, potentially providing easier scoring conditions in the morning.
Showdown Model
Below are the power rankings of the golfers who we have our eye on for Round 2. The full-field model is available to premium subscribers HERE. It includes pre-event rankings, round-specific scoring averages, birdie percentages, weighted approach ratings, and ownership projections for tomorrow's showdown slate.
***Full disclosure: The ownership numbers are based on the PGA TOUR SHOWDOWN $4K CADDIE [SINGLE ENTRY], which is important to note as ownership in showdown can vary from contest to contest depending on field size and entry fee. However, it should provide you with a guide to who will be the most owned and how those around them shake out.
$10,000+
Jon Rahm and Patrick Cantlay will be in our pool in the $10k range. With Cantlay going off in the morning he will be our go to guy at low ownership with very solid R2 scoring, especially now that he is 9 back of his buddy Xander, who is going to be ultra popular tomorrow.
$9,000+
Hovland and Homa will both be in our pool, hoping to get some ownership discount on these two studs in the afternoon, with their solid play potentially being good enough to still go low in the wind. Cam Smith is a birdie making machine and we are a hot putter away from a massive round of points from the Ozzie.
$8,000+
Tyrrell Hatton needs to step it up tomorrow to make the cut and he can come back with some vengeance at super low ownership after a dud of a round today. Matt Fitzpatrick and Hideki Matsuyama both got off to a slowish start in R1 and will be looking to bounce back tomorrow. Justin Rose burnt me and 25% of the weeklong public that played him, but he could come in really low owned depending how many people get off of him heading into R2 after his clunker.
$7,000+
Jason Day and Patrick Rodgers will be some targets we role out tomorrow at low ownership in the $7k range. Corey Conners, Sahith Theegala, and Denny McCarthy also all shot over par in the $7k range which will help ownership.
$6,000+
Some low priced options to roll out in the $6k range are Chris Kirk, Sebastian Munoz and Padraig Harrington. Munoz may be a little chalky but his approach numbers were nuts in R1 and played rather well to get to -2.
Showdown Optimizer
The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to work it, at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page, there is a video on how to get my projected ownership or points into your optimizer.
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor.
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