September 6, 2016

JB Branson, Nick Mariano, Max Petrie and Bill Dubiel bring you their boldest predictions for the 2016 NFL season.

Oh hot damn, RotoBaller's big dawgs are back for football season. You know you never get sick of bold predictions and hot taeks, and our taeks are the hottest around. Unplug your smoke detectors--here comes the fire.

Our "Fantastic Four" is comprised of JB Branson (@RowdyRotoJB), Nick Mariano (@NMariano53), Max Petrie (@Max_Petrie) and yours truly, Bill Dubiel (@Roto_Dubs). The predictions range from the wildly absurd to the somewhat realistic, but you can bet they're all going to be bolder than a good taco seasoning. Tweet us with your thoughts!

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JB's Predictions

Let's get rowdy, shall we?

DeAndre Washington Outscores Latavius Murray in PPR leagues

The Raiders ranked 29th in rushing last season, and Latavius Murray averaged 4.0 yards per carry with an embarrassing 1.9 yards after contact, and it was actually worse than it seemed. Advanced statistics from Football Outsiders show that Murray ranked 29th in DYAR (Total Value) and 32nd in DVOA (Value Per Play) among all RBs in 2015. The failed attempt at the Roy Helu Jr. experiment showed a lack of interest in having Murray as an every-down back, but an even more obvious sign was taking a sure-handed back in the fifth round of the NFL Draft. During his senior season at Texas Tech, DeAndre Washington caught 41 receptions for 385 yards and 2 touchdowns. 115 targets went to members of the Raiders backfield last season. Even if Murray does manage to keep a couple of those for himself, that is a LOT of PPR lovin' that can be gobbled up by Washington.

I am never a believer in making decisions based on preseason statistics, but just for the hell of it, I will also mention that Washington led the team in rushing attempts and receptions through the four weeks of exhibitions. This guy is not here just as injury insurance. He will be a game-changer for the Raiders in 2016, and the sheer volume of receptions along with ample of touches on the ground will accumulate more PPR fantasy points than Murray's 80 total yards per game.

Zach Miller Finishes as a Top Seven TE in All Formats

First off, let me say that if you have been waiting on the TE position in drafts this season and did not scoop up Miller, then "you've played yourself." Last season, Miller had the FIFTH-highest value per play (DVOA) among TEs. While he had 26 fewer targets than Martellus Bennett, he still managed 21 more yards and two more TD. Heading into week 8 in 2015, Miller had only three catches for 35 yards. Over the last eight weeks of the season, he totaled 31 rec/ 404 yds/ 5 TD. Now with Bennett off in Foxborough, those first eight weeks of nothing won't be happening this time around. You are looking at a 62/808/10 ceiling in Miller, which would land him right up behind the elite TEs. Another promising sign for Miller is the fact that Tony Moeaki did not make the 53 man roster, meaning the Bears showed their faith in Miller by keeping two blocking TEs behind him on the depth chart for the 2016 season. Not a bad outlook or a guy being drafted in the 15th round.

DeAndre Hopkins Beats Out Antonio Brown for Top Fantasy WR in Standard leagues

Nuk Hopkins was targeted more times than the next four closest Texans combined last season. Unfortunately, only 111 of those were caught, equaling a 57.8 catch percentage. HOWEVER this was mostly due to sub-par QB play from four different scrubs and Nate Washington being the next best offensive threat, meaning defensive game plans were so obvious in their attempts to thwart Hopkins that a six year old could have drawn them up. But times are a'changing in Houston. Even though I don't think Brock Osweiler is a star, I can guarantee one thing regarding the Texans QB play this season, consistency. No matter how mediocre he turns out to be, there is no way (barring injury) that Houstons leadership will allow their $72 million QB to ride the pine. This means chemistry will be strong with his star wide-out. Then of course there is the fact that opposing defenses now have to respect Lamar Miller coming out of the back field, and rookie Will Fuller's speed, which will do absolute miracles for Hopkins' coverage match-ups.

Despite the consistency struggles of Hopkins and Houston last year, fantasy football's golden-boy Antonio Brown scored less than 40 more points in standard leagues (counting Return stats). This in a year that saw Le'Veon Bell start only six games, so of course AB absorbed the load. That won't be the case this season (despite the short suspension). Despite an imminent decrease in targets, Hokpkins' fantasy output will increase in 2016 leaving him the #1 WR in standard scoring leagues.

Keenan Allen Leads the League in Targets

In only eight games in 2015, prior to an unfortunate kidney injury that ended his season, Keenan Allen accrued 89 targets. This ranked second behind only Danny Woodhead on the Chargers for the ENTIRE season. Simple math would put him at 178 targets over a 16-game season. This would have ranked fourth in the league behind Julio Jones, Antonio Brown, and DeAndre Hopkins. This season, with Travis Benjamin/Dontrelle Inman lining up on the other side of the field, and Ledarius Green gone to help ease the pain of having a 36 year old TE, I see Keenan Allen's targeted rate rising from the 25% he saw last year. In the second most pass happy offense (676 Pass Attempts in 2015), even a 5% increase in targets will thrust Allen over the 200 mark, and will place him atop the league.

Nick Mariano's Predictions

Cam Newton Finishes Outside of the Top Four QBs

Be easy, but I'm thinking a lot of things went Carolina's way last season while a few others passers got dinged. I know, he's getting Kelvin Benjamin back and a lesser defense might actually end up making him better. He's the freaking goal-line running back to boot. He started all 16 games. He doesn't even have to compete with Tom Brady for this due to the suspension. Woah, focus! This is about why he won't be a top-four option here.

I realize "top-four" doesn't sound as nice as "top-five", but the point here is that out of the four QBs in FantasyPros' Tier One (as of Sept. 2), Newton's not going to deliver on his ADP. Carolina's schedule last season was about as favorable as one could ever hope for. We're talking "I suspect that he found a magic lamp in Agrabah" levels of ease down the stretch. This happens when your division draws the 2015 NFC East as an opponent, on top of matchups against a historically terrible Saints defense and demoralized Bucs unit that was going through the motions in Week 17. I'm not saying his 2016 schedule is horrid, but it's just not a cupcake. His league-leading 7.1% TD rate is also unlikely to sit that high again. Cam doesn't even have to be "bad". Aaron Rodgers gets Jordy Nelson back. Andrew Luck is healthy and has a prime duo in T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief. Russell Wilson has shown us that he can do it all even without Marshawn Lynch. If Ben Roethlisberger and Drew Brees stay healthy, they can jump right into the mix as well. This also requires one to ignore how...

Kirk Cousins Will Be a Top-Six QB

YOU LIKE THAT? Seriously. I know he had five rushing TDs to boost his stat line but his 69.8% completion rate led the NFL by 1.5% over Drew Brees. Washington's defense is still not very good, but their offense really found an identity down the stretch last season. And when I say "their offense", I mean "their passing game", because that rushing attack inspires nobody. Matt Jones has yet to consistently produce anything in the NFL. Rob Kelley is a preseason darling, a buzzy sleeper, but who knows what will come of that. Chris Thompson is their most reliable asset, because he catches passes! This requires Jordan Reed to remain healthy, which in and of itself is a bold prediction, but this is a thing. It doesn't hurt that Cousins is also looking to earn himself a long-term contract. Dolla' dolla' bills y'all.

LeSean McCoy Stays Healthy, Finishes as #5 RB

For a guy who started all 16 games in 2013 and 2014, McCoy really does carry around the "durability" narrative. To be fair, he has made his fair share of appearances on injury reports due to soft tissue woes, and one can even pick at his spot on a Buffalo offense that isn't exactly "up-tempo" as a reason to hate, but we're here for bold font only. Karlos Williams is gone now. Mike Gilleslee is the backup, and if you feel threatened by him then I'd love to hear about which running backs you actually think are safe. Tyrod Taylor is going to do well leading the troops (scroll for Bill's take on this) and the more effective he can be with his arm, the better. Also, Taylor's ability to run makes those shotgun-read plays into a fantastic weapon. Look for McCoy's TDs to regress to higher love here.

Jeremy Maclin Finishes as a Top-12 WR

One usually struggles to put any modicum of faith into the Alex Smith-led Kansas City passing attack, but you really should when it comes to Maclin. His career-high 70.2% catch rate was good for a spot in the top-15 out all qualified WRs last season, though I don't think most of you were worried about his actual ability to haul in a pass. His numbers last season were good WR15 in standard leagues despite missing a game, and honestly losing more than that due to the Week 6 concussion which clearly took a while to recover from. I don't mean that necessarily in the physical/safety sense, but he failed to eclipse 35 yards in his next three games after this. Guess what happened when Stella found her groove again though? His final six games of the season saw him either record more than 60 yards or a TD in each game, logging 476 yards and six TDs on 39 catches (51 targets). His first five games before the injury? He caught 36-of-52 targets for 483 yards and a TD. That makes for 75 catches on 103 targets with 959 yards and seven TDs in 11 "unhindered" games. Get it.

Mad Max's Predictions

Jarvis Landry is a Top-5 WR in PPR Leagues

No things are a lock after the top three at WR (Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, Odell Beckham Jr.), and you can make a viable case for any receiver after that tier. Well here's mine for Landry. Landy saw the sixth most targets in 2016 (166) but was only able to pull in 110 (more due to Ryan Tannehill than Landry). More importantly to his fantasy value, he only procured four receiving touchdowns. For a player of his caliber, the average is eight touchdowns, a number I think is more than viable for Landry. Factor in his rushing potential and punt returns and he is an Antonio Brown-lite that can be found in the third and fourth rounds.

Thomas Rawls is a Top-Five RB

All that Christine Michael talk is baloney. Rawls was a monster in Marshawn Lynch's absence, averaging 5.4 yards per carry and showing the ability to handle all three-downs. His injury combined with Michael playing the good-back bad-back game once again has scared owners off this draft season (Rawls is RB 18) but he should be considered in the third round of drafts. The Seahawks had to abandon their smash-mouth running game philosophy last season when they had a rough start, but for Russell Wilson's sake they need to establish the run game once again in 2016. If Rawls is 100% healthy, I expect for him to maintain his top-5 performance he exuded in 2015.

Matthew Stafford is a Top-Five QB

Remember when Stafford and Calvin Johnson ruled the QB-WR combo kingdom with an iron fist? Well don't let the departure of Megatron fool you into thinking Stafford is not a viable asset. In fact, I think he can be your Fantasy MVP drafts considering his ADP, and it's thanks to new OC Jim Bob Cooter. Aside from being a fun name to write, Cooter has brought a quick release passing offense to the table that is perfect for Stafford, as he completed 71% of his passes under Cooter. Golden Tate is in line for 150+ targets while Marvin Jones Jr. should provide the speed to take the top off defenses. The Lions are going to bad this year, and when you factor in a weak running game that means a lot of passing situations.

Jerick McKinnon is a Top-20 RB in PPR Leagues

McKinnon has quietly been waiting his turn in Minnesota, sitting behind the franchise aka Adrian Peterson. Given the current relationship with AP and the front office and his impeding free agency looming, I anticipate the Vikings incorporating McKinnon more into the offense. He presents an excellent skill set as a pass-catching back who turn the jets on quick; he was an All-Conference running back in college. Given Sam Bradford is still learning the offense (and isn't good in general), I expect the Vikings to lean on their running game and defense to carry them in 2016. Look for McKinnon to alleviate that pressure of AP and be a must-play RB1 anytime Peterson sits.

Bill Dubs Predictions

In the words of the immortal Dy-lan (and the Human Torch)..."You want some of this hot fire?"

The Top Five QBs in 2016 are Cam Newton, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Drew Brees...and Tyrod Taylor

"TyGod" Taylor surprised the football world in 2015, as he didn't technically even win the starting job until just before the season started. He established himself as one of the top dual-threat quarterbacks in the NFL, throwing for 3,000 yards and 20 touchdowns while rushing for 568 yards and four more touchdowns. He did this all in just 14 games, and didn't have a fully healthy Sammy Watkins until Week 9. From Week 9-on, Watkins was one of the best WRs in fantasy football, totaling 900 yards and seven touchdowns. TyGod (theoretically) has a fully healthy Watkins for the season, which will be the difference-maker. He barely turns the ball over, he could lead all NFL QBs in rushing...he's gonna be elite this year. You hear me? ELITE.

Kevin White Outscores Alshon Jeffrey

This has more to do with my lack of faith in Alshon Jeffrey than it does with my faith in White. I'm not going to bother listing the bevy of ailments that has plagued the dynamic wideout in his career, but we all know it's a lot. When healthy, I see Jeffrey and White mimicking the production that Jeffrey and Brandon Marshall put up in 2013 with Smokin' Jay Cutler, and assuming that Jeffrey misses some time, it'll be the Kevin White show. He's tall, strong and he isn't afraid to go up and get it. Pass on Alshon and take White later on.

Brandin Cooks is a Top-Seven WR

After a slow start in 2015, Brandin Cooks cemented himself as one of the premier wideouts in the NFL. From Week 5-on, he posted 923 yards and a whopping nine touchdowns, and established his position as the top target in the high-octane New Orleans passing attack. If we project out that 12-game stretch of his from last year, we get an 85-1,230-12 season line, and I think that's within Cooks' grasp--although I would plan on closer to 100 catches and 10 touchdowns. The point is, he goan EAT in that offense, you don't even Snead to worry about it.

Boy, we're on a roll now.

Bilal Powell Outscores Matt Forte in PPR Formats

Powell quietly did the damn thing in the back half of the 2015 season, posting 483 all-purpose yards from Weeks 11-16 (80.5 total yards per game) and scoring three total touchdowns. Most significantly, he caught 32 passes in just those six games, which is approaching some Danny Woodhead-level shiz. He should get even more work on the ground as the Jets look to keep the aging Forte fresh for all 16 games, which means this could evolve into a 60/40 split for all touches. Forte is a much better pass-catcher than Chris Ivory was, so I don't expect Powell to maintain that large role in the passing game, but I truly believe his efficiency with his touches will make him the back to own in New York by the end of the season. Fight me on it, I dare ya.

Donte Moncrief is a Top-20 WR...and T.Y. Hilton is Not

T.Y. Hilton has had at least 1,000 yards and five touchdowns in each of the last three seasons. So what gives, Bill? Andrew Luck is back, his kidneys aren't perforated anymore, why do you hate T.Y. Hilton? I'll tell ya why. Donte Moncrief is why. Fun fact: Moncrief caught 64 passes last season to Hilton's 69 (heh). Funner fact: Moncrief had 29 fewer targets than Hilton. Funnest fact: T.Y. Hilton had four or fewer catches in 10 games last season. They both had to deal with Civil War General Andrew A. Luck 's injuries/incompetence, so it's all a level playing field in that regard. Luck (the quarterback, not the superstition) is going to make both of these guys fantasy-relevant, but I'm seeing this evolving into a Jordy Nelson/Randall Cobb scenario (although to a much lesser extent). Hilton is reliant on the big bomb, while Moncrief is going to be the target hog. Oink oink oink, gimme the target hog every day of the week and twice on Sundays.