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Michael Florio reviews the top rookie running backs in the 2022 NFL Draft class. What do the film and scouting reports say about these RBs and what is their fantasy football value?
Rookies in fantasy football are always interesting. Some can come through and be a league winner type like Najee Harris, Ja'Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson and Justin Herbert in recent years. Or they can be overly hyped and end up hurting your fantasy football team like Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Justin Fields, or Laviska Shenault Jr. have the last couple years. Or perhaps they are like Javonte Williams, who lived up to expectations playing wise, but just landed in a spot where he could not get a starters workload.
The one position that may be a little easier to product to immediate fantasy value though is running back. That is largely because much of it is influenced by landing spot as volume is the biggest recipe for success for a fantasy RB. It doesn’t matter what you think of a back, if they fall into a spot where they are blocked by a current starter, it will be hard for that back to return fantasy value. So landing spot will greatly matter for any of these RB prospects, but after that talent comes into play. A large part is because there is less of an adjustment at the position from college to the NFL.
The NFL will let us know just how they value these players in the NFL Draft, but for now, it is best to get a feel for the players that we may be using early picks on in fantasy drafts. This will break down each prospect using both film and analytics!
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Top Running Backs Prospects - NFL Draft
Breece Hall, Iowa State
Scouting Report: Hall is such a pleasure to watch run. He is a patient runner who will wait for space to open up before showing off two of his better traits – his vision in finding the hole and his burst in being able to quickly get to the second level. He has great balance as a runner and can run through defenders. He also has good hands and can become a better asset in the passing game than many think. The knocks on him is that he does not have elite speed, but he certainly has enough to still have breakaway runs. He can run upright, making it harder for him to be elusive and break tackles at time. He can be a true difference maker and three down back and has an RB1 ceiling in fantasy football. He is the top back in this year's class.
What the Numbers Say: Hall picked up 77 missed tackles forced, which ranked seventh among draft eligible players. He averaged 0.29 per attempt. Hall averaged 2.9 yards before contact and 2.8 yards after contact per rush. He had 36 runs of 10-plus yards last season.
Kenneth Walker III, Michigan State
Scouting Report: He has good vision and balance similarly to Hall, but he is a more elusive runner. He has the ability to make a tackler miss or to bounce off of them and keep running and is physical enough where defenders will not run him over. He has pretty good hands despite not being asked to catch the ball a bunch in college. Remember never think a player can’t do something just because he wasn’t asked – but Walker will need to improve his pass protection at the NFL level. His speed should be fine at the NFL level, but is not a burner in that aspect. Walker projects as an RB2 for fantasy purposes with the upside to be better.
What the Numbers Say: Walker put up 92 missed tackles forced, which led all draft eligible backs and was second in all of NCAA only behind Malik Willis. His 0.34 missed tackles forced per attempt ranked seventh in all of college. Walker averaged 1.7 yards before contact per carry and 4.4 yards after contact per attempt – which ranked fourth. His 48 rushes of 10+ yards was second again behind only Willis. Walker is the strongest standout RB based on the numbers.
Isaiah Spiller, Texas A&M
Scouting Report: Spiller has size but he is still able to dart in and out of traffic. He is elusive and has strong vision as a runner with the ability to change direction if needed. His speed is not a concern at the NFL level. He has pretty good hands as a receiver but will need to work on his pass protection. He projects to be an early down back initially who could carve out a three down role if he develops properly. I have seen him compared to Joe Mixon before, but that seems like the best case scenario for Spiller. Still, even a poor man’s Mixon will be a useful fantasy asset.
What the Numbers Say: Picked up 57 missed tackles forced per run and 0.31 per attempt. He averaged 3.6 yards after contact per attempt and 2.1 yards before contact. He had 32 rushes of 10-plus yards in 2021.
Zamir White, Georgia
Scouting Report: White is a physical downhill runner and makes it tough for defenders to bring him down. He is a power runner with size who could immediately be utilized near the goal line. He has better burst than you would expect but too often runs to contact rather than in space. The biggest knock on him is that his pass protection and hands both need work. He projects more as an early down runner who would leave the field on third down or in the two minute drill. He can be an RB2 or flex option right away if he falls into the right role, but his upside is limited until he can be more of a factor in the passing game. He also has a history of knee injuries to worry about.
What the Numbers Say: White averaged 3.6 yards before contact per attempt, the same as Spiller. The bad news is that his yards before contact was just 1.7 per carry. White, who is a physical runner, forced 40 missed tackles, or 0.24 per attempt. That is much lower than some of the other high end backs in this class. He also had just 24 runs of 10-plus yards, which is low when comparing him among his peers in this article.
James Cook, Georgia
Scouting Report: Dalvin Cook’s younger brother shares some traits. He has great speed and agility to quickly cut through traffic. He has burst to get into the open field if given a lane. He also has great vision at finding space and is one of the best receiving backs in this class. His pass protection needs work, but that is largely due to him being undersized at just 190 pounds. Cook projects to be a secondary back, who can excel in passing situations. He will likely share a backfield and shed early down work to a back with more size. Cook is explosive enough where he will have big days even on limited touches. He projects to be a strong secondary back, much like James White has done throughout his career.
What the Numbers Say: Cook forced 25 missed tackles as a runner, good for just 0.22 per carry. He averaged 3.8 yards after contact per carry and 2.5 yards before contact. The yards after contact is huge for someone Cook’s size, but it shows how shifty and agile he can be at times. He had 18 runs of 10-plus yards, which doesn’t sound like much until you realize he ran only 116 times last year. That means 16 percent of his carries were deemed explosive.
Kyren Williams, Notre Dame
Scouting Report: Williams has great vision and footwork that makes him elusive and hard to tackle. He can often make defenders miss and has strong hands in the passing game. He can be used as a three down back at the NFL level if things break right for him. The biggest knock on him is his lack of high-end speed. He had breakaway runs in college, but that is very much in question at the NFL level. Williams' floor is more of a secondary option who can be used in the passing game, but there is some untapped upside – my biggest concern is the lack of speed holds him back.
What the Numbers Say: Williams picked up 60 missed tackles last year, which ranked inside the top 10. He put up 0.29 per attempt. He averaged 3.7 yards after contact and just 1.1 before contact. He also had 25 carries of 10-plus yards.
Deeper Running Back Options
Tyler Allgeier is a patient runner who has burst to go through the hole. He also has the ability to be a bit of a power runner at times and run through the defender. He can be utilized in the passing game as well. He likely projects as a back that can be used in a timeshare with another option.
Jerome Ford has a ton of explosiveness and is a threat to go the distance anytime he touches the ball. He does not always show the best vision and can run towards defenders, which is an issue because he does not have the ability to break many tackles. He is the sort of back that can be productive, both in real life and in fantasy, without seeing a ton of volume each week due to his big play ability.
Rachaad White can glide around the field and has an extra gear when he gets in the open field. He shows the ability to be a short yard runner at times at college, but there is questions if that will translate at the next level. He should have a role in the passing game at the next level but has more upside if he lands in the right situation.
Tyler Badie has great acceleration to quickly get through the hole and into the second level. He thrives in the passing game as well. While he has shown the ability to be a three-down back in college, and is a better runner than he likely gets credit for, However, his size is a legit concern at the next level. Listed at just 199 pounds, Badie projects to be the next RB in the mold of a Nyheim Hines or J.D. McKissic. That is more of a flex option for fantasy, but if he can bulk up a bit he could see more ground work.
Brian Robinson Jr. has a lot of size listed at 228 pounds, and is not afraid to lower his pads and run through a defender. He can also move the pile. He is not very elusive and often runs into contact rather than away from it. He can be a goal-line runner at the NFL level and projects more as an early-down runner than a three-down back.
Dameon Pierce is a power runner who can run defenders over and can move the pile. He can also be used in the passing game. While he is more of a power runner, he did lead all draft eligible RBs with 0.4 missed tackles forced per attempt.
This series will continue to break down the key skill positions heading into the NFL Draft!
Make sure to follow Michael on Twitter, @MichaelFFlorio
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