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Jake King-Finnen's NBA Over/Under DFS prop picks for RIVAL fantasy contests for Wednesday, March 15th, 2023. Sign up for RIVAL fantasy and use his NBA DFS prop picks to win money.
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RIVAL Over/Under Picks – Wednesday, March 15, 2023
Giannis Antetokounmpo ended up playing and Jrue Holiday fell wildly short of expectations. De’Aaron Fox absolutely crushed all his overs, once again proving offense is greater than defense, but although we missed on both Fox and Holiday, Lauri Markkanen and Anthony Edwards did exactly what we expected.
Domantas Sabonis OVER 48.53 fantasy points
Excluding the Suns game from Saturday where he posted a medial stat line, Domantas Sabonis has been producing career-high numbers. His latest outing against the Bucks was just another example of how important he is to the offense and incredibly, his usage rate ended up just under 25%. His shooting efficiency was terrible, yet in this type of contest that is awesomely irrelevant, but more likely to inspire false hope than anything. The Kings lost by nine points and Sabonis had a season-high in attempts so it’s unlikely he will repeat that, but it’s clear that Kevin Huerter, Fox, and Sabonis taking 64 out of a total 104 attempts is reflective of their offensive priorities each night.
Darius Garland UNDER 42.26 fantasy points
Nothing against Darius Garland, but players haven’t typically performed well against the 76ers this season. Of course, offense trumps defense in this league but team-defenses can tell an entirely different story. Not to mention the Cavaliers are on the second night of a back-to-back with both Jarrett Allen and Donovan Mitchell returning to the lineup. Even though it’s hard not to appreciate Garland and what he brings to the table, his upside is already slightly hindered.
Jaren Jackson Jr. OVER 38.23 fantasy points
Lining up against Bam Adebayo is never an easy task, but Jaren Jackson Jr. failing to surpass this projected will be by his own hands. Outside of a small streak, Jackson Jr. has failed to really hit any statistical goals that make him threating to this over. Sadly, his attention to defense and ability to block shots always has upside near record-highs, but he also hasn’t posted double-digit rebounds since January 14th. His role in the offense is key and his usage rarely fluctuates above or below a certain threshold, just in terms of raw production he tends to fall below ‘statistical’ expectations more often than not.
Jalen Green OVER 32.89 fantasy points
When the Lakers defense is struggling it’s easy to pile on. Granted, that will require Jalen Green to have a productive game but that hasn’t seemed to be a problem for him lately. He’s taking a ton of shots each night despite the Rockets not keeping many games close, so although his game log has been very up and down he’s posting stats across the board to that can act as a hedge in case he’s not having a good shooting night.
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