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Welcome to our new series covering RIVAL Fantasy picks for MLB! We will focus on two fantasy contest types offered on RIVAL - Challenges and FantasyBook (Over/Under).
Challenges are H2H matchups between two MLB players. You choose which one you think will score the most fantasy points, then place a bet to back it. If another user chooses the other player at any time before the contest, the bet is on! If your player scores more fantasy points, you win 1.8x your bet.
FantasyBook is more traditional over/under DFS prop picks - whether you think pitchers and hitters will score Over or Under the set lines, and choosing your amount. You can parlay multiple picks together to vastly increase the juice (ex: 3 picks = 5x your bet).
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RIVAL Challenge Picks
Brown is the play tonight as he has been great all season and holds an above-average strikeout rate against a Twins team that has been abysmal in May. Bieber has maintained a solid 3.04 ERA, but everything else about his profile (4.89 xERA, .293 xBA, 92.2 MPH average exit velocity, 39.1% hard-hit rate) signals negative regression.
Dane Dunning vs. Patrick Corbin
Both pitchers are entirely uninspiring, and we typically wouldn't want to consider either in fantasy contests. However, Dunning is the better pitcher in this head-to-head matchup, and he has a much better matchup tonight as he'll face the middling Tigers (.698 OPS in May) while Corbin faces the red-hot Dodgers (.820 OPS in May). Dunning pitched at least five innings and allowed two runs or less in each of his four starts this season, while his previous eight appearances came out of the bullpen.
RIVAL Over/Under Picks
Blake Snell (UNDER), Hunter Brown (OVER), Goerge Kirby (UNDER)
I don't understand why Snell's FPTS line is at 22.52 FPTS tonight. He is averaging 12.1 FPTS per game this season and has exceeded that number once over his ten starts. He has a 5.04 ERA (5.91 xERA) and 1.56 WHIP - those numbers won't work regardless of the competition. The Marlins aren't the best-hitting team in the MLB, but you could argue that they're in the top five against LHP as they rank fourth in OPS (.812) and wOBA (.351) in the split.
The Twins have been underwhelming offensively this season and especially lately. They hold the highest strikeout rate in the MLB (27.9%) and a .227 AVG and .713 OPS in May. Brown, meanwhile, has put up at least 21.95 FPTS in three consecutive starts. He holds a sparkling 3.12 ERA (3.79 xERA) and a 28.1% strikeout rate, and with Vegas giving the Astros -180 odds today, he has a great shot at snagging the win bonus as well.
I'm a big fan of Kirby, but I must draw a line somewhere. He got destroyed by the Pirates in his latest outing, scoring -1.5 FPTS on nine hits and seven earned runs in the disastrous outing. He should bounce back, but I don't see it being enough against a Yankees lineup that is rolling right now. They hold the second-highest OPS (.800), ISO (.218), and wOBA (.343) since May began, so while Kirby may have a decent outing, there's no way I'm backing the over in this spot.
Mike Trout (OVER), Jorge Mateo (UNDER), Christopher Morel (UNDER)
Trout has exceeded his 8.87 FPTS number in four of his last seven games, and now he gets to face Lance Lynn to start things off tonight. Lynn has a 5.83 ERA (4.92 xERA) and has allowed 12 long balls over his 11 starts this season. He has improved in May, but not enough for me to shy away from Trout.
Mateo has gone ten games without exceeding the 9.38 FPTS he needs tonight on RIVAL. He's not producing at the plate recently, and I don't feel like betting on him to right the ship against the formerly-dominant pitcher known as Shane Bieber tonight. Bieber's advanced metrics are shockingly bad, but his 3.04 ERA (4.89 xERA) should be enough to hold Mateo and the O's at bay.
Morel has scored three or fewer FPTS in six straight games, and that's not going to get the job done when he needs 7.97 FPTS to hit his over tonight. Opposing starter Zach Eflin is no cakewalk, as he has re-emerged from the depths to post a 7-1 record, 3.17 ERA (2.96 xERA), and an elite3.3% walk rate.
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