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RIVAL Fantasy MLB DFS Props - Over/Under Picks for Friday, May 26th, 2023

George Kirby - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Welcome to our new series covering RIVAL Fantasy picks for MLB! We will focus on two fantasy contest types offered on RIVAL - Challenges and FantasyBook (Over/Under).

Challenges are H2H matchups between two MLB players. You choose which one you think will score the most fantasy points, then place a bet to back it. If another user chooses the other player at any time before the contest, the bet is on! If your player scores more fantasy points, you win 1.8x your bet.

FantasyBook is more traditional over/under DFS prop picks - whether you think pitchers and hitters will score Over or Under the set lines, and choosing your amount. You can parlay multiple picks together to vastly increase the juice (ex: 3 picks = 5x your bet).

RIVAL Fantasy offers some of the industry's best and easiest-to-win MLB DFS games. There are no large-field tournaments filled with sharks where you have to get lucky to place. At RIVAL Fantasy, you're not playing against other people; you're just playing against the projections. Check here for the updated rules and scoring.

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RIVAL Challenge Picks

Hunter Brown vs. Jalen Beeks

While both pitchers are young, high-upside arms with elevated strikeout rates, Brown has been better as he holds the advantage in ERA (3.20), xERA (4.01), and wins (4-1 record). He also has the much easier matchup tonight against the Athletics, an extremely light-hitting squad he dominated for 26.5 FPTS in his most recent start. Beeks has to tangle with the Dodgers, which is not quite the same matchup as Brown has with the A's.

Brandon Pfaadt vs. Wander Franco

Pfaadt hasn't lived up to his expectations after being called up earlier this year, but he's a starting pitcher, and that's always going to be the way to go in these head-to-head matchups. Franco has scored three or fewer FPTS in four of his last eight games, and Pfaadt has posted 7.2 and 16.85 FPTS over his last two starts. A matchup against the Angels isn't too daunting, either, as they strike out at the 11th-highest rate (23.2%) vs. RHP and are projecting for just 4.6 runs tonight.


RIVAL Over/Under Picks

George Kirby (OVER), Max Scherzer (OVER), Lance Lynn (OVER)

Kirby holds a sparkling 2.62 ERA (2.98 xERA) for the year, and he is in great form as he has only permitted four earned runs with a 21/2 K/BB ratio over his last four starts. He has exceeded the 14.95 FPTS he needs tonight in seven of his last eight starts, so he has a great chance of going over his total again here versus the Pirates. Pittsburgh holds a .692 OPS, .146 ISO, and .305 wOBA against right-handed pitching this year (all bottom-12 in the MLB).

Mad Max has shown signs of returning to his former dominant self, posting 21.2 and 22.25 FPTS against the Guardians and Nationals over his last two starts. It has been a very rocky season for the future Hall of Famer, but a string of easier matchups might be just what he needed to re-discover his magic. He'll take on the Rockies at Coors Field, and while it's always dangerous to back a pitcher in the high altitude of Denver, Scherzer is capable of getting the job done.

Lynn has an ugly 6.28 ERA (5.08 xERA) and has been knocked around a lot through ten starts, evidenced by his 12 homers allowed and bottom-tier expected hitting metrics against him. However, he has notched at least 21.9 FPTS in four of his last five starts, and he only needs more than 14.74 FPTS to hit his OVER tonight. The Tigers are still one of the easier matchups for a pitcher to face as they hold a .652 OPS (third-worst), .118 ISO (second-worst), and .291 wOBA (fifth-worst) against right-handed pitching this season.


Aaron Judge (OVER), Brandon Lowe (UNDER), Joey Gallo (UNDER)

Judge has put up more than the 10.28 FPTS he needs tonight in nine of his last 11 games. He's posting an insane 1.312 OPS with eight homers, 19 RBI, 15 runs scored, 16 walks, and a steal in May. Joe Musgrove holds a 6.75 ERA (4.35 xERA) and a high 10.5% barrel rate through five starts this season. All this is to say we're backing the reigning MVP in this showdown.

Lowe is on a cold streak, as he has posted 8 FPTS or less in seven of his last eight games. He needs 9.78 FPTS tonight, which feels like it's on the high side with the form he has shown us recently. Syndergaard is exploitable, but I think it's going to be the other bats in the Rays lineup that get the job done against him. It also doesn't feel right to back the OVER on a player who holds a brutal .504 OPS in May and a bottom-six percentile xBA throughout the season.

Gallo needs 7.12 FPTS tonight, and he has been under that number in six of his last eight contests. This isn't the matchup to back the OVER. Kevin Gausman has been dominant this year, holding a 3.14 ERA (3.14 xERA) with an elite strikeout rate (31.9%) and walk rate (4.3%).


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