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Kyle Ringstad's MLB DFS prop picks for RIVAL fantasy contests for Friday, July 7th, 2023. Sign up for RIVAL fantasy and use his MLB DFS prop picks to win money.
Welcome to our new series covering RIVAL Fantasy picks for MLB! We will focus on two fantasy contest types offered on RIVAL - Challenges and FantasyBook (Over/Under).
Challenges are H2H matchups between two MLB players. You choose which one you think will score the most fantasy points, then place a bet to back it. If another user decides on the other player at any time before the contest, the bet is on! If your player scores more fantasy points, you win 1.8x your bet.
FantasyBook is more traditional over/under DFS prop picks - whether you think pitchers and hitters will score Over or Under the set lines, and choosing your amount. You can parlay multiple picks together to vastly increase the juice (ex: 3 picks = 5x your bet).
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RIVAL Challenge Picks
Adolis Garcia OVER Randy Arozarena
You'll find that I don't like picking against Morton with the UNDER pick on Arozarena below, so it makes sense that I like hitters in good spots who are matched up against him. Garcia has been a catalyst of the surprisingly explosive Rangers' offense all season, and he's in great form as he has exceeded 12 FPTS in six of his last 11 games. He posted 19 FPTS or more in four games during that stretch, and today's matchup against the vulnerable Trevor Williams is the icing on the cake.
Tyler Glasnow OVER Carlos Rodon
Take the money on this one and run. Rodon will be making his season debut tonight after missing the first four months of the season with back and forearm issues. He threw 58 pitches in his latest rehab start, so it is unlikely that the Yankees will allow him to exceed 70 pitches tonight. Glasnow is averaging 19.37 FPTS per game this season and is coming off games of 23.35 and 30.25 FPTS.
RIVAL Over/Under Picks
Aaron Civale (UNDER), Bailey Ober (OVER), Corbin Burnes (UNDER)
Civale is facing the Royals, who are usually a team we'd want to target opposing pitchers against. However, Civale hasn't been good either, from a daily fantasy perspective. The Cleveland hurler holds a solid 2.96 ERA over eight starts this season, but he averages 14.64 FPTS per game and hasn't exceeded 18.2 FPTS in seven consecutive starts. His low 18.4% strikeout rate is the main reason he doesn't rack up fantasy points - he generated just two punchouts in his most recent outing (vs. CHC).
Ober has exceeded the 18.47 FPTS he needs tonight in three of his last four starts, highlighted by a monster 33.95 FPTS outing against Baltimore in his latest turn on the mound. The 27-year-old holds a solid 24.9% strikeout rate, limits hard hits (32.7% hard-hit rate), and rarely issues walks (5.1% walk rate). He'll be facing the O's again tonight, and while they're coming off a 14-run annihilation over the Yankees, I suspect they're due for a letdown tonight against Ober and the Twins in Target Field. The books have Minnesota with -161 odds to win, and they've placed a low 4.2-run implied total on the Orioles.
Burnes has had a topsy-turvy season, and that has been on full display over his last five starts, where he scored 27.35, 4.75, -2.75, 18.7, and 38.8 FPTS. He posted an ugly 4.99 ERA over five starts in June, and tonight he holds the highest FPTS line and will be facing one of the hottest offenses in the MLB in the Reds. Cincinnati ranks third in OPS (.810), third in woBA (.352), fourth in ISO *(.192), and 24th in K% (20.5%) against right-handed pitching since the calendar turned to June.
Alex Verdugo (UNDER), Randy Arozarena (UNDER), Austin Hays (UNDER)
There's no reason Verdugo should be listed as one of the highest-priced hitters on the board today. He has scored under seven FPTS in seven of his last eight games, and while the matchup against Medina is prime, the A's pitcher has allowed one earned run or less in two of his last three starts. I can't get behind the over on the outfielder tonight.
Arozarena and the Rays have a tough matchup against Charlie Morton and a tough Braves bullpen tonight, and I love smashing the under on the key Tampa Bay bats. Arozarena is just 4-for-20 with one homer and one RBI in July, and Morton holds a solid 3.57 ERA and is looking to build off a four-hit, zero-earned run outing against the Marlins in his last time on the mound.
Hays has finished under what he needs tonight in nine of his last ten games. If we're playing the "probability" game, we're backing the under on him tonight. This is a correlated play with the "over" pick on Ober above, as Hays will need to do his damage against a pitcher with a 2.70 ERA and a slightly-better-than average bullpen (4.14 xFIP).
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