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Kyle Ringstad's MLB DFS prop picks for RIVAL fantasy contests for Friday, July 28th, 2023. Sign up for RIVAL fantasy and use his MLB DFS prop picks to win money.
Welcome to our new series covering RIVAL Fantasy picks for MLB! We will focus on two fantasy contest types offered on RIVAL - Challenges and FantasyBook (Over/Under).
Challenges are H2H matchups between two MLB players. You choose which one you think will score the most fantasy points, then place a bet to back it. If another user decides on the other player at any time before the contest, the bet is on! If your player scores more fantasy points, you win 1.8x your bet.
FantasyBook is more traditional over/under DFS prop picks - whether you think pitchers and hitters will score Over or Under the set lines, and choosing your amount. You can parlay multiple picks together to vastly increase the juice (ex: 3 picks = 5x your bet).
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RIVAL Challenge Picks
Braxton Garrett OVER Xzavion Curry
This is the easiest pick of the day. Garrett's metrics aren't incredible (4.32 ERA, 4.63 xERA, 47.3% hard-hit rate), but he's a legitimate starting pitcher facing off against the feeble Detroit Tigers lineup. Curry, meanwhile, has only made two starts this season, and he only pitched three innings in each instance. Garrett should be able to rack up enough innings and strikeouts to soar past Curry's score, and he has a better chance of securing the win bonus.
Max Scherzer OVER Reese Olson
Here's another Challenge matchup that doesn't even seem fair, at least on the surface. Scherzer is likely a first-ballot Hall of Famer, and he's starting to turn his season around as he has posted at least 22 FPTS in three of his last five starts. Meanwhile, Olson scored 5.85 FPTS or less in three of his last five starts. They're both facing weak offenses, but Scherzer gets the edge here due to his recent form and higher strikeout upside.
RIVAL Over/Under Picks
Sonny Gray (UNDER), Brady Singer (OVER)
He's in an incredible spot against the Royals tonight, but I have no faith in Gray being able to hit the OVER on the highest FPTS line on the slate. He has finished under 22.54 FPTS in 11 of his last 12 starts, and he's had far too many 6-10 FPTS in starts for me to want to get to him tonight. One of the reasons for his decline has been a sharp decrease in his strikeout rate, which finished at an embarrassing 16.8% in June and sits at 20.6% in July.
Singer has proven capable of hitting the over on his 10.66 FPTS line tonight. He has exceeded that mark in five of his last seven starts, which includes a 23.9 FPTS outing against the Yankees and a 17.2 FPTS performance against the Rays over his last two starts. The Twins aren't the easiest matchup in the world, but they strike out at the highest rate in the league against right-handed pitching.
Kyle Schwarber (UNDER), Lane Thomas (UNDER),
Mitch Keller is on the mound for the Pirates, and I don't love backing hitters who hold a sub .200 AVG against high-quality starting pitchers. He has failed to reach the FPTS total he needs tonight in seven of his last eight games, and while Keller has faltered lately, he's still not a pitcher we want to target hitters against actively.
Thomas works for us as a correlation play off of the Scherzer 'Challenge' recommendation. The Nationals' outfielder holds a weak .663 OPS in July, and it feels like Mad Max is on track to return to his dominant self.
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