RB Snap Counts and Touch Trends: Week 3 Analysis

September 28, 2019

As we enter Week 4 of the fantasy football season, it is key to recognize running back value through the lens of touches and snap count opportunities. Siddhant Gannu breaks down some questionable backfield situations to identify RB risers and fallers.

Welcome to Week 4! With the season in full swing, it appears that most NFL teams have solidified the roles of their backfields. While some running backs have had a significantly increased workload or have become the workhorse of their respective teams, others have fallen into the dreaded territory of running-back-by-committee (RBBC).

So, once again, let’s look at a player’s snap count. Players who are on the field more will, after all, be more likely to score more fantasy points. 

Here, we examine some offensive performances from Week 3 where either there was no lead back or the RB1 forfeited a significant portion of touches. Take this data into context and then decide whether this might lead to buy/sell opportunities in the near future.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Dare Ogunbowale (Snap %: 25%) / Peyton Barber (Snap %: 36%) / Ronald Jones (Snap %: 30%)

When Tampa Bay head coach Bruce Arians was hired, he was expected to breathe life into the anemic running game. While there has been some success over the course of the season, unfortunately for fantasy owners, that production hasn’t been limited to one RB. Take, for example, Week 3. Sophomore Ronald Jones led the team with 80 yards on 14 carries, while veteran Peyton Barber managed only 48 yards on 13 carries. During Week 2, the script was flipped: Barber dominated the touches with 23 attempts for 82 yards and a TD, while Jones only received four carries for nine yards. That doesn’t make sense because Jones was coming off an impressive Week 1 performance where he had 13 carries for 75 yards.

The point is that it’s pretty much impossible to tell who the lead back will be in Tampa Bay. Unlike other teams, for Arians, prior performance is NOT indicative of future snap counts (i.e. after a successful Week 1, Jones received only eight snaps in Week 3). For fantasy football owners, this usage is frustrating and makes it difficult to start either RB.

In any case, if you had to pick one running back, Ronald Jones is probably the one you would want to roster. On the ground, despite having 13 fewer total carries than Barber (31 to 44), the second year back has rushed for more total yards than the veteran (164 to 163). In the passing game, despite having only two receptions on two targets, Jones has had 59 receiving yards. Barber meanwhile has five receptions on seven targets, but only 26 yards to show for it. The only Tampa Bay RB with more yardage than Jones is Dare Ogunbowale (65 yards), but he has zero rushing attempts and has no fantasy upside. While Jones is the most successful back, consistent volume is missing and prevents him from becoming a startable fantasy option.

Verdict

Ronald Jones is a boom-or-bust RB3 in 12- to 14-man formats, thanks to his potential upside and rushing efficiency. However, fantasy owners should be wary that snap counts can be misleading here; Jones’ touch trends can easily vary on any given week.

Peyton Barber is a high-end RB4 in all formats, mainly due to the chance the veteran could receive a significant workload (e.g. Week 2 against Carolina) and gets the most red-zone work. Unfortunately, it also remains a possibility that Barber is slowly phased out of his lead role to give more touches to the younger talent. As a result, his ceiling should be viewed as, at best, a bye-week fill-in.

Dare Ogunbowale should only be rostered in dynasty formats or 14-man PPR leagues. He has zero appeal in standard formats as he will not see touches on the ground, but his snap counts indicate that he could become the check-down option for Jameis Winston, like Chris Thompson in Washington. Unfortunately, until Ogunbowale sees more snaps, he can’t be relied on, regardless of potential talent.

Seattle Seahawks

Chris Carson (Snap %: 44%) / C.J. Prosise (Snap %: 55%) / Nick Bellore (Snap %: 1%)

What should have been a continuation of his breakout season has turned into a nightmare for Seattle Seahawks running back Chris Carson. Despite being an unbelievably talented back who has shown that he can handle a full workload, Carson appears to be plagued by ball-security issues all of a sudden. In the last two weeks, the third-year RB has fumbled the ball on key drives, deep in the opponent's territory. When examining both cases, his fumbles have cost the Seahawks an opportunity to either reduce the deficit or even take the lead. 

During Week 3, Carson’s problems with ball protection finally affected his snap count, as C.J. Prosise took over as the lead back in the latter half of the team’s defeat to the New Orleans Saints. Bear in mind, head coach Pete Carroll made this change, despite the fact that teammate Rashaad Penny was inactive for the game due to an injury. If the former first-round pick had been healthy, he would have received a majority of touches in Carson’s place. So while Prosise is unlikely to become fantasy relevant, barring an injury, and despite the fact Carroll has come to the support of the beleaguered Carson, there remains the distinct possibility that the former lead back's role is in jeopardy.

Verdict

Chris Carson remains a mid-tier RB2, especially for Week 4. He faces a weak Arizona Cardinals Defense and should be able to tear through their front seven, thanks to his talent in both the ground and aerial game. However, if Carson were to fumble the ball again, fantasy owners should be extremely concerned the third-year player loses volume to either Prosise or Penny, depending on who’s healthy.

At the moment, Rashaad Penny is a low-end RB3 in standard formats. After leading the NFL in rushing attempts last year, the Seahawks are once again in the top-10 in 2019. Even if Penny isn’t the lead back, there remains an opportunity for him. Once Penny is healthy and if Carson continues to fumble away his touches, the sophomore is an extremely valuable handcuff who could have a high-end RB2 ceiling.

Finally, C.J. Prosise has some value in 14- to 16-man PPR formats, as his upside in a run-heavy offense and his usage in Week 3 indicate that he could be featured in the future. Unfortunately, Prosise is an RB3 on the Seahawks depth chart, at best.

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