Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

Lost password? [X]

Receive free daily analysis:

NFL    NBA    MLB

Already have an account? Log in here.

[X]

Forgot Password


[X]

RB Snap Counts and Touch Trends: Week 3 Analysis


Welcome to Week 4! With the season in full swing, it appears that most NFL teams have solidified the roles of their backfields. While some running backs have had a significantly increased workload or have become the workhorse of their respective teams, others have fallen into the dreaded territory of running-back-by-committee (RBBC).

So, once again, let’s look at a player’s snap count. Players who are on the field more will, after all, be more likely to score more fantasy points. 

Here, we examine some offensive performances from Week 3 where either there was no lead back or the RB1 forfeited a significant portion of touches. Take this data into context and then decide whether this might lead to buy/sell opportunities in the near future.

Editor's Note: Get any full-season NFL Premium Pass for 50% off. Our exclusive In-Season Lineup Tools, Lineup Optimizer and over 150 days of Premium DFS Research. Sign Up Now!

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Dare Ogunbowale (Snap %: 25%) / Peyton Barber (Snap %: 36%) / Ronald Jones (Snap %: 30%)

When Tampa Bay head coach Bruce Arians was hired, he was expected to breathe life into the anemic running game. While there has been some success over the course of the season, unfortunately for fantasy owners, that production hasn’t been limited to one RB. Take, for example, Week 3. Sophomore Ronald Jones led the team with 80 yards on 14 carries, while veteran Peyton Barber managed only 48 yards on 13 carries. During Week 2, the script was flipped: Barber dominated the touches with 23 attempts for 82 yards and a TD, while Jones only received four carries for nine yards. That doesn’t make sense because Jones was coming off an impressive Week 1 performance where he had 13 carries for 75 yards.

The point is that it’s pretty much impossible to tell who the lead back will be in Tampa Bay. Unlike other teams, for Arians, prior performance is NOT indicative of future snap counts (i.e. after a successful Week 1, Jones received only eight snaps in Week 3). For fantasy football owners, this usage is frustrating and makes it difficult to start either RB.

In any case, if you had to pick one running back, Ronald Jones is probably the one you would want to roster. On the ground, despite having 13 fewer total carries than Barber (31 to 44), the second year back has rushed for more total yards than the veteran (164 to 163). In the passing game, despite having only two receptions on two targets, Jones has had 59 receiving yards. Barber meanwhile has five receptions on seven targets, but only 26 yards to show for it. The only Tampa Bay RB with more yardage than Jones is Dare Ogunbowale (65 yards), but he has zero rushing attempts and has no fantasy upside. While Jones is the most successful back, consistent volume is missing and prevents him from becoming a startable fantasy option.

Verdict

Ronald Jones is a boom-or-bust RB3 in 12- to 14-man formats, thanks to his potential upside and rushing efficiency. However, fantasy owners should be wary that snap counts can be misleading here; Jones’ touch trends can easily vary on any given week.

Peyton Barber is a high-end RB4 in all formats, mainly due to the chance the veteran could receive a significant workload (e.g. Week 2 against Carolina) and gets the most red-zone work. Unfortunately, it also remains a possibility that Barber is slowly phased out of his lead role to give more touches to the younger talent. As a result, his ceiling should be viewed as, at best, a bye-week fill-in.

Dare Ogunbowale should only be rostered in dynasty formats or 14-man PPR leagues. He has zero appeal in standard formats as he will not see touches on the ground, but his snap counts indicate that he could become the check-down option for Jameis Winston, like Chris Thompson in Washington. Unfortunately, until Ogunbowale sees more snaps, he can’t be relied on, regardless of potential talent.

 

Seattle Seahawks

Chris Carson (Snap %: 44%) / C.J. Prosise (Snap %: 55%) / Nick Bellore (Snap %: 1%)

What should have been a continuation of his breakout season has turned into a nightmare for Seattle Seahawks running back Chris Carson. Despite being an unbelievably talented back who has shown that he can handle a full workload, Carson appears to be plagued by ball-security issues all of a sudden. In the last two weeks, the third-year RB has fumbled the ball on key drives, deep in the opponent's territory. When examining both cases, his fumbles have cost the Seahawks an opportunity to either reduce the deficit or even take the lead. 

During Week 3, Carson’s problems with ball protection finally affected his snap count, as C.J. Prosise took over as the lead back in the latter half of the team’s defeat to the New Orleans Saints. Bear in mind, head coach Pete Carroll made this change, despite the fact that teammate Rashaad Penny was inactive for the game due to an injury. If the former first-round pick had been healthy, he would have received a majority of touches in Carson’s place. So while Prosise is unlikely to become fantasy relevant, barring an injury, and despite the fact Carroll has come to the support of the beleaguered Carson, there remains the distinct possibility that the former lead back's role is in jeopardy.

Verdict

Chris Carson remains a mid-tier RB2, especially for Week 4. He faces a weak Arizona Cardinals Defense and should be able to tear through their front seven, thanks to his talent in both the ground and aerial game. However, if Carson were to fumble the ball again, fantasy owners should be extremely concerned the third-year player loses volume to either Prosise or Penny, depending on who’s healthy.

At the moment, Rashaad Penny is a low-end RB3 in standard formats. After leading the NFL in rushing attempts last year, the Seahawks are once again in the top-10 in 2019. Even if Penny isn’t the lead back, there remains an opportunity for him. Once Penny is healthy and if Carson continues to fumble away his touches, the sophomore is an extremely valuable handcuff who could have a high-end RB2 ceiling.

Finally, C.J. Prosise has some value in 14- to 16-man PPR formats, as his upside in a run-heavy offense and his usage in Week 3 indicate that he could be featured in the future. Unfortunately, Prosise is an RB3 on the Seahawks depth chart, at best.

More Fantasy Football Analysis




More Recent Articles

 

Week 12 Kicker Streamers and Starts - 2019 Fantasy Tiers, Rankings

It's Week 12, and the fantasy football playoffs are just around the corner. Teams are jostling for playoff position both in the real world and the fantasy world. You gotta have the right kicker at the right time in the right matchup, and it matters now more than ever. The margin for error in these... Read More


Week 12 Defense (DEF) Streamers and Starts - 2019 Fantasy Tiers, Rankings

Almost out of time to make that last push for the playoffs--no time like the present to squeak out a win because you picked the right defense. Below are RotoBaller's Week 12 defense tiers and rankings, or which defenses to stream, start and target off the waiver wire for Week 12 of the NFL and... Read More


Week 11 Start/Sit: Monday Night Football Matchups Analysis

Welcome back to Mexico City. Last season, the Chiefs were supposed to take on the Rams in this game before field conditions moved the game to Los Angeles. Even though the game was moved, the fantasy output was amazing as both teams scored over 50 points and there was not an unhappy fan among us.... Read More


Fantasy Football News and Injuries - Running Updates

Below is a quick-hit list of running notes on relevant injuries and player news, including pre-game reports and live in-game updates. Stay tuned for updates all throughout the week and on Sunday morning game day:   Week 11 Marlon Mack has been diagnosed with a broken hand and may be out several weeks. Emmanuel Sanders (ribs)... Read More


Week 12 Waiver Wire Pickups & Adds

This could be the most exciting installment of waiver wire adds in a while. Not that any of these choices are necessarily league-winners but at least we have a bunch of new names to ponder. Bye weeks are nearly over but this one will be particularly tough with the high-scoring Chiefs, Vikings, Chargers, and Cardinals... Read More


Waiver Wire Express - Week 12 Lightning Round

We're onto Week 12, which means the last of the bye weeks approaches. The Cardinals, Chargers, Chiefs and Vikings hit the hammocks as we can finally start to look at players without worrying about future offweeks. To help you look towards those precious playoff weeks, here is the waiver wire lightning round heading into Week... Read More


Running Back Waiver Wire Pickups - Week 12

The regular season continues to advance at a relentless pace as we have now entered the planning process for Week 12. Some of you are concentrating on building lineups that will commandeer a spot in the fantasy playoffs, while others are making slight adjustments to teams that have already secured their place in the postseason.... Read More


Wide Receiver Waiver Wire Pickups - Week 12

Week 11 is behind us and we're getting closer and closer to the end of the fantasy regular season. For some of us, Week 12 represents the final chance to get into the postseason, while for others we have another week or two left. Here, to help you get ready for the playoffs, is a... Read More


Week 12 Tight End Waiver Wire Picks and Streamers

With fantasy football leagues only a couple weeks away from their playoffs, this is not the time for teams to be short a tight end. Not only do fantasy footballers have no Travis Kelce or Hunter Henry during this crucial week in their fantasy seasons, they do not get to take advantage of using a... Read More


Quarterback Waiver Wire Pickups and Streamers - Week 12

We saw some monster weeks at the quarterbacks position, with four quarterbacks topping 37 points, and ten scoring over 25 points. These weren't all big names putting up these points either, as low-owned quarterbacks like Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, and even Jeff Driskel had some big numbers in Week 11. That means we've got plenty... Read More


Week 11 Fantasy Football Staff Rankings

Below you will find all of RotoBaller's fantasy football weekly rankings, tiers, player news and stats for the 2019 NFL season. Our Ranking Wizard displays our staff's rankings for various league formats, all in one easy place. Here's what you'll find: Weekly PPR Rankings Weekly Half-PPR Rankings Weekly Standard Rankings Dynasty League Rankings     Fantasy... Read More


NFL Matchup Ratings Tool - Weekly Player Projections

  If you see the red "Upgrade" button below, then you are not a Premium subscriber, or have not yet logged in. Learn more about our NFL Matchup Ratings and projections system. Editor's Note: Get any full-season NFL Premium Pass for 50% off. Our exclusive In-Season Lineup Tools, Lineup Optimizer and over 150 days of... Read More


Week 11 Chat - Live Fantasy Football Game Day Q&A

It's Sunday Morning Week 11... Do You Know Who to Start? Each Sunday morning of the NFL season, RotoBaller's experts will be moderating the industry's leading live chat room and answering a bunch of your fantasy football questions, from around 10:30 AM to 1:00 PM ET. Come join in on the fun, and get your... Read More


Fantasy Football Starts and Sits: Matchups Analysis for Week 11

Welcome to our Week 11 matchup analysis and start/sit column for fantasy football. We'll be covering every single contest from the Sunday slate in one convenient location, helping you make the best decisions for your fantasy lineups. Be sure to check back regularly because this article will be updated as news comes in regarding injuries and other... Read More


Wide Receiver / Cornerback Matchups To Target in Week 11

In Week 10, the Buccaneers defeated the Cardinals in a game that featured a whopping 57 points scored between the two teams. Christian Kirk was expected to exploit the Buccaneers weak secondary, and he exceeded all expectations by catching three touchdowns, finishing as the No. 1 wide receiver on the week. On the other side... Read More