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Randy Arozarena has a solid 2021 campaign and is the favorite to win the American League Rookie of the Year Award. Brad Camara looks back at Arozarena's season and fantasy baseball value while projecting next year's ADP.
Randy Arozarena came off one of the best statistical postseasons ever in 2020, slashing .377/.429/.831 with a .515 WOBA across 84 plate appearances. He won the American League Championship Series MVP and set the postseason record in hits (29) and homers (10) in 2020.
The 26-year-old was selected inside the top-50 in re-draft leagues as fantasy managers wondered what to expect from Arozarena in 2021 after his 2020 postseason heroics. Did he live up to the lofty expectations set for himself the previous year?
Let's review his final stats from 2021 and evaluate his season from a fantasy perspective.
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A Solid Season
Let's start by checking his batting line across the major roto categories.
2021: .274/.356/.459, 94 R, 69 RBI, 20 HR, 20 SB
Arozarena might not have lived up Spring Training draft hype but was very solid in 2021, posting his first-career 20-20 season and finishing as a top-20 fantasy outfielder. He is currently the favorite to win the 2021 American League Rookie of the Year award. Here are his month-by-month totals.
Tamp Bay's star outfielder started off hot in April, but his batting average hovered around from .245 in May through .244 in July. Arozarena made up for the lack of batting average in May by swiping six bags during the month. He did hit a robust .366 in August and finished the season strong with a .333 batting average over his last 15 at-bats. Despite showing elite power in the playoffs, Arozarena's slugging percentage dropped from .641 in 2020 to .459 last year.
Players with a 35+ point drop from their BA to xBA & a 70+ point drop from SLG to xSLG in 2021.
Frank Schwindel
Randy Arozarena
Brandon Belt
Rafael Ortega
Yuli Gurriel
Nicky Lopez
Harrison Bader
Wil Myers— Eric Cross (@EricCross04) October 18, 2021
Arozarena was also on his way to another monster postseason before the Rays were eliminated in four games by the Boston Red Sox in the 2021 American League Divisional Series. Arozarena slashed .333/.474/.600 with one homer and a 1.071 OPS while even stealing home during the four-game series.
RANDY AROZARENA STEALS HOME 🔥
(via @MLBONFOX)pic.twitter.com/mBiBoF2E2A
— Yahoo Sports (@YahooSports) October 8, 2021
What To Expect From Arozarena In 2022?
After a full season in the big leagues, fantasy managers should expect another 20/20 season with a .275 batting average in 2022. We all know Arozarena turns it up a notch once the calendar flips to October, but his stats over the past year and a half (minus the postseason) have Arozarena as a top-20 fantasy outfielder with the potential for more. Take a look at his Statcast chart below:
image from BaseballSavant
Arozarena's max exit velocity (85%) and sprint speed (90%) were terrific in 2021, while his xwOBA (16%) and xSLG (16) were down. Still, despite the drop in slugging percentage, the favorite to win the 2021 AL Rookie of the Year award should be selected among the top-20 outfielders and is a solid pick in the middle rounds for upcoming 2022 fantasy drafts.
Arozarena is only 26 and has the potential to be a 30/30 player if he can mix in his impressive playoff stats into the regular season. He is a pretty safe pick and should produce in the top of the order with a loaded Rays lineup, including Austin Meadows, Brandon Lowe, and Wander Franco. Arozarena is a strong OF2 and will be selected inside the top-50-75 overall in most leagues and is an excellent player to build around in dynasty formats.
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