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Matt's quarterback (QB) fantasy football start 'em, sit 'em picks for Week 7 of 2024. His QB lineups advice for Week 7 fantasy football start/sit decisions.
Once again, the quarterback position has kept fantasy managers on their toes. Last week, rookies Caleb Williams (29.8), Bo Nix (21.7), and Drake Maye (21.5) were among the top 10 in fantasy production at the quarterback position.
Meanwhile, some previously trusted fantasy contributors, such as Kirk Cousins, Kyler Murray, and Dak Prescott, let fantasy managers down.
This week, I am here to tell you which quarterbacks you can trust in your fantasy lineups and which ones should be sent packing, back to the bench for week 7's starts and sits at the quarterback position.
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Week 7 Starts - Fantasy Football Booms
Sam Darnold - QB, Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions
Sam Darnold has produced 20 or more fantasy points in three of his last four contests, and this week, the Minnesota Vikings welcome the Detroit Lions to town for a battle of NFC North supremacy. So far this season, the Lions have allowed opposing receivers to produce 43 fantasy points per contest, which bodes well for Darnold.
Over the last four weeks, Darnold and the Vikings have ranked fourth in pass rate over expected, something no one saw coming back in August. We also could never have predicted that the once-maligned signal-caller would complete 63.5% of his passes and toss 11 touchdowns, fourth-most, in just five games.
Most passing touchdowns through 6 weeks:
Baker Mayfield - 15
Jordan Love, Joe Burrow - 12
Sam Darnold - 11
Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, CJ Stroud - 10— lindsey ok (@lindseyyok) October 16, 2024
Another piece of the puzzle that has fallen into place for Darnold is the injury sustained by Aiden Hutchinson last week. Hutchinson accounted for 7.5 of Detroit's 15 sacks thus far this season. With more time to process, Darnold should be able to pick apart this Lions' secondary.
Who am I to argue if Vegas expects this to be a high-scoring affair? If the Vikings and Lions combined for 51 points this week, Darnold will undoubtedly play a large part in it.
Kirk Cousins - QB, Atlanta Falcons vs. Seattle Seahawks
Last week, Kirk Cousins let fantasy managers down in what was a great matchup on paper against the lowly Carolina Panthers. Cousins completed 19 of 30 passes for 225 yards and a touchdown, however, the passing game was optional as Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier combined for three touchdowns on the ground.
That contest against the Panthers is more of an outlier, considering Cousins ranks fourth in passing yards with 1,598 while averaging 7.7 yards per attempt this season. Cousins has also tossed nine touchdown passes and completed 66.7% of his passes while throwing a catchable ball 78.3% of the time.
That production is impressive, considering it includes those first two weeks in which Cousins was still recovering from that Achilles injury last season.
This week, Cousins has another favourable start. The Seahawks allow opposing quarterbacks to average 17.12 fantasy points per contestant and have been lit up on three separate occasions for 22 or more fantasy points.
Baker Mayfield - Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Baltimore Ravens
Who sits second among fantasy quarterbacks in fantasy points and fantasy points per game? If you said Josh Allen, you are completely wrong. The answer is Baker Mayfield, who also ranks eighth in passing yards with 1,489, averaging 7.9 yards per attempt while completing 70.9% of his passes.
Oh, and he leads the entire NFL with 15 touchdown passes, three more than the next closest quarterback. If you combine Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts touchdown passes, it's still three shy of Mayfield's mark.
It's time to consider Mayfield a lock or a weekly must-start option in fantasy. When you have two of the top 10 receivers in fantasy football at your disposal, good things are going to happen. Good things also happen when you face a defense like the Ravens, which is allowing 20 fantasy points per game to the quarterback position.
Nine QBs have accounted for at least 10 TDs this year, but only -G̶u̶s̶ ̶S̶w̶a̶y̶z̶e̶- Baker Mayfield has 15+ 🏴☠️🔥 https://t.co/n9OrZsOjjb pic.twitter.com/MyrB1YhW37
— The 33rd Team (@The33rdTeamFB) October 16, 2024
Baltimore's secondary has been a problem all season. The 1,789 passing yards they have surrendered are the most in the league. Regarding touchdown passes, the 11 they have yielded sit fifth in the league but one back from being tied for the second-most.
Week 7 Sits - Fantasy Football Busts
Patrick Mahomes - QB, Kansas City Chiefs at San Francisco 49ers
Patrick Mahomes is a great NFL quarterback, the championships speak for themselves. However, 15.2 fantasy points per game won't lead your fantasy squads to the promised land. Those fantasy points per game sit 20th among quarterbacks, behind the likes of Bo Nix (15.7), Caleb Williams (16.8), and Joe Flacco (18.7).
How mediocre has Mahomes been? Since Next Gen Stats came out in 2016, Mahomes' 3.6 air yards per completion, if calculated over the course of the entire season, would be the lowest recorded. That's some real Trent Dilfer-type stuff right there.
Currently, there are 17-19 better options available, many likely sitting on the waiver wire, that would give you equal or better production than what Mahomes can deliver this week. San Francisco is allowing just 15.8 per game to date, and only one quarterback has multiple touchdown passes in a game. Even if Mahomes hits the average, it's considered a bad start.
Most interceptions thrown since the start of last season:
21 — Sam Howell
20 — Patrick Mahomes pic.twitter.com/IBYDmcCRgM— StatMuse Football (@statmusefb) October 15, 2024
Aaron Rodgers - QB, New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers
Once again, Aaron Rodgers gets his way. A week after Robert Saleh was fired, the Jets went out and traded for his former Green Bay Packer teammate, Davante Adams. Next up, Mike Williams is going to get fired on his day off after slipping and having the ball picked off on Monday night.
Adding Adams improves this Jet's offence, but not this week against TJ Watt and the Pittsburgh Steelers. Pittsburgh happens to be one of the stingiest defensive units in fantasy, limiting opposing quarterbacks to just 12.04 fantasy points per contest thanks to picking off opposing signal callers as often as they have allowed touchdown passes—that's seven times apiece.
For Rodgers, he has only produced 15 fantasy points or more twice this season, back in week two and again on Monday night against the Bills. I may be wrong. After all, Rodgers ranks first in the Hail Mary stats, having completed 33% since 2001. The Jets 2024 season now needs a Hail Mary more than ever.
Kyler Murray - QB, Arizona Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Chargers
While sitting as the QB12 in fantasy, Kyler Murray has been one of the most inconsistent fantasy quarterbacks this season, driving fantasy managers up a wall. Murray has as many 25-point finishes as he has finished with less than 12 fantasy points (2). Murray has finished as QB15 or worse in four of six weeks thus far.
This season, Murray has tallied 225 passing yards just once, back in week two against the Rams. That was also the only week in which he had thrown for more than one touchdown pass. Take that week two matchup away, and Murray has looked rather average.
Week 7 is once again projected to be one of those less-than-desirable performances, and the Cardinals face the Chargers in Arizona. Los Angeles has allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game (12.98) this season and has surrendered just 1,047 passing yards in five games. Like the Steelers, the Chargers have as many interceptions as touchdown passes conceded.
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