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Welcome to our PrizePicks NBA DFS prop picks for Thursday, May 4th, 2023. The 2022-2023 NBA season is rolling along, and our friends over at PrizePicks still have a TON of great props we can look to take advantage of.
PrizePicks is a great DFS props site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or single stats. The goal is to build a 2-player, 3-player, 4-player, or 5-player entry and then select whether or not you want to play for the power play or the flex play. On the power play, you will need to be correct on each of your selections to win, and on the flex play, you will have a little more wiggle room for a chance to win some money back.
At PrizePicks, you're not playing against other people, you're just playing against the projections, and the guys at PrizePicks have worked hard to give you really attractive opportunities to make some money.
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PrizePicks Over/Under DFS Props Contests
PrizePicks has two types of games. The first type of game is known as Fantasy Score, which consists of selecting various players and trying to determine if they will go over or under their projected fantasy points in a game.
The second game is known as Single Stat. For NBA, Single Stat consists of points, rebounds, assists, three-pointers made, and free throws made, in which you determine if the player in question will go over or under their projected total.
You can mix and match players from different types of games in your entry, or select all of your plays from the same type of game. Once you have selected your players and props, you can choose the aforementioned flex play or power play option.
NBA DFS Props - Over/Under Picks for Today
Be sure to also check out our free new PrizePicks DFS Props Tool to see more recommended picks.
Kevon Looney OVER 20.5 Points + Rebounds
To kick off today's one-game slate, I'll be taking a look at Kevon Looney's points and rebounds prop. Looney has exceeded this projection in four of his last five games, averaging 26.6 PR during that stretch.
Looney is coming off a stellar game one performance against the Los Angeles Lakers, of which he covered this prop with rebounds alone, recording 23 boards. Looney has greatly impacted the Warriors during this playoff stretch, averaging 18.8 rebounds in the last six games and 7.3 points.
The books like Looney to go over 20.5 PR with -125 odds, while some books have him listed at 21.5 with even odds giving us a one-point margin. I expect Looney to remain aggressive on the glass and cover this for us.
Dennis Schroder OVER 8.5 Points
Next, I'll be looking at Dennis Schroder's points prop. Schroder has gone over this line in two of his last five games, averaging eight points during that span.
In game one's win over the Golden State Warriors, Schroder saw a high 31 minutes and dropped 19 points. Schroder came off the bench very aggressively, getting to the line 10 times and taking a total of 10 field goals on top of that. Tonight I expect Schroder to see a solid run as he did in game one, and it's hard to see him not drop 9-plus points with that kind of volume.
The books have Schroder to go over 8.5 points with -135 odds, while some have him listed at 9.5 points with even odds, giving us a one-point margin. My prop model also supports this play, projecting Schroder at 10.74 points. This is a nice lean, and as long as we see some good minutes, he should have no problem covering this.
Jarred Vanderbilt UNDER 5.5 Rebounds
To finish things off, I'll be taking a look at Jarred Vanderbilt's rebounds prop. Vanderbilt has gone under this projection in three of his last five games, averaging 3.6 rebounds during that stretch.
Vanderbilt did a solid on Stephen Curry in game one, applying great pressure and forcing Curry to shoot 41 percent from the field. I expect that defensive matchup to remain, and guarding Curry mostly consists of running around the perimeter, putting him in a tough position to rebound. Although he had six rebounds last game, three came from offensive boards, and I don't see that happening again.
The books like Vanderbilt to go under 5.5 rebounds with -130 odds, giving us a solid lean here. My prop model also supports this play, projecting Vanderbilt for 4.57 rebounds. I expect the Warriors to shoot fewer threes tonight, as they shot 21/53 in game one, and fewer threes mean fewer long rebounds to bounce outside to the perimeter, where I expect Vanderbilt to be.
Other Recommendations:
- Kevon Looney OVER 13.5 Rebounds
- Austin Reaves OVER 4 Rebounds
- D'Angelo Russell OVER 24.5 PRA
Overall recommendation for this play: FLEX
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