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Welcome to Week 3 of the NFL Season! Each week, I'll be bringing you our famous NFL DFS Cheat Sheet with expert research and picks for cash games and GPPs. Here are a few notes about the sheet.
- For Week 3, I will be using some data from 2022 and some from 2021. Mainly the DVOA data is what is still from last season as we need a few weeks for that to even out!
- The "fantasy points allowed rank" reflects how a player's opponent ranked in fantasy points allowed to their specific position. The lower the number, the better the matchup.
- DVOA is a stat created by Football Outsiders that stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average and takes into account the quality of the previous offensive opponents. This rating is being shown for both the offensive player's team and their opponent.
- A play labeled "cash" is a higher-owned play that is recommended for cash games. A "strong" play is playable in all formats. "Slate-breakers" are some of my favorite GPP targets for upside or reduced ownership.
- Vegas and risk columns will all be updated during the week to reflect injury info, weather info, and the most recent Vegas info.
Premium NFL DFS Cheat Sheet - Week 3
Cash Game Cores
DraftKings: Kupp-Fournette-Diggs
FanDuel: Mixon-Diggs-Fournette
If you read the anchors column this week, you'd know that it's Mixon and Fournette as the top back and then Diggs and Kupp as the top two WR. It's incredibly tough to fit all four of them into cash builds on either site and trust me, I've tried.
I think forcing Kupp into cash on DK makes more sense as his PPR floor and ceiling are massive. His 35.3 DK points per game represent 3.5 DK points per 100 dollars of salary cap, while his 25.8 FD points per game are good for just 2.63 FD points per 100. He's a great play on either site, but a must-play only on DK, I think.
Deeper GPP Flyers
This is where I want to give you some other players who will be in my player pool, who didn't make the cut for the cheat sheet. The main recommended plays are always going to be geared more towards cash games and single-entry tournaments, but here are some lower-owned options for large-field tournaments.
QB: Pat Mahomes, Kirk Cousins, Marcus Mariota
Anytime the Chiefs are on the slate, we have to consider Mahomes, who threw 5 TDs in week one and smashed the slate without even throwing a pass in the fourth quarter. Cousins is coming off a stinker, but the Vikes are in a high-total game that could shoot out and he should bounce back. Mariota is in consideration for cash games as a pay-down as he's been able to scratch out fantasy value with his running ability and posting some stats while playing from behind.
RB: Jonathan Taylor, Austin Ekeler, Josh Jacobs, Miles Sanders
If the Colts are going to compete this week, it is likely because they have success running the ball with Taylor. He will be largely overlooked based on how he busted last week and the public's lack of faith in Indy's offense and Matt Ryan. Ekeler has also not been as good as most expected through two games, but his upside on DK is substantial if he's used a bunch in the passing game like last week. Jacobs is too cheap for his share of Vegas's touches and he's even someone I would consider as your third RB in cash games. I hate Miles Sanders but he's getting the touches and if the Eagles run instead of throw on Sunday, he's certainly a viable play for leverage.
WR: Tyreek Hill + Jaylen Waddle, Christian Kirk, Jahan Dotson, Drake London, Garrett Wilson
The Miami guys have to be considered this week with what they did to the Ravens and the Bills just ruled out several important key players in their secondary. Kirk has emerged as a legit option every week until he finally gets too pricey. Dotson is a pivot off Samuel for Washington, and both of the other rookies are getting major target shares the last week and breaking out - far too cheap for their upside.
TE: Kyle Pitts, Gerald Everett, Logan Thomas, Zach Ertz
I am not a Pitts guy but his price is dropping and the match-up is better this week. I like Everett and Thomas for cheap, while Ertz should continue to get a lot of short targets while Rondale Moore is still out.
DEF: JAX, NYJ, HOU, CAR, SEA, PHI
Week 3 DFS Slate Notes
***Saturday Updates***
The big news yesterday was that Josh Jacobs is not traveling with the team and will likely miss Sunday's game with an illness. While we are staved for value a bit, I still don't think I can endorse trusting Zamir White as both Brandon Bolden and Ameer Abdullah could steal touches and are passing down backs.
The Tampa WR situation is a mess as Julio Jones, Russell Gage, and Breshad Perriman are all listed as questionable. If all three of them play, I don't see any of them as being must-plays, but if Julio misses then Gage could be a value we look at for cash games. If both Jones and Gage miss then Perriman has some appeal as the last man standing. I'm all over Fournette regardless of which receivers play.
The line movement in the Jags-Chargers game has everyone now suspecting that Justin Herbert will miss this game this week. If we get Chase Daniel at QB, you have to downgrade pretty much all the Chargers offensive players, other than maybe Austin Ekeler. It's a situation I will probably avoid.
James Conner is the other injury to monitor and if he misses the game against the Rams we could see Eno Benjamin and Darrel Williams split carries there. Against the Rams, neither is a must-play either but both could be GPP flyers. I like Williams a bit more, but Benjamin did get more targets and yardage as a receiver last week. Another pretty murky situation there. I kinda want Conner to play so we can just cross all three of them off.
I did bet the Bills already to cover, but we should note that they're down 4 defensive starters now and Miami is probably licking their chops at the chance of upsetting them and grabbing a hold of the division here. Buffalo is too good in my opinion to let that happen, but that doesn't mean this game couldn't shoot out. I don't think Tua has a 6-TD, 400+ yard game in him again, but that doesn't mean you can't still roll him out there with one (or both) of Hill and Waddle and run it back with Diggs. And Josh Allen is a fantastic play, too.
I'm going to be heavily invested in the Eagles again this week, they looked tremendous against the Vikes on Monday night and the Commanders have been a sieve on defense. Hurts is a great naked play, but stacking him with any of Brown, Smith, and Goedert is in play with Curtis Samuel or Jahan Dotson coming back. McLaurin is a stay-away as he will likely draw Darius Slay coverage.
The Vikings-Detroit game is also really appealing and I will continue to beat the drum for Goff-Swift-St. Brown as an elite stack until they prove otherwise. The Minnesota side will surely get more ownership with Jefferson and Cook being in great spots and touted everywhere. Run one of them back with the Detroit stack and get some leverage.
I will definitely have a Rams stack again this week as the Stafford-Kupp-Higbee trio has proven so far to be a great way to get a massive share of their offense. Guessing which running back to use is tough, and waiting for an A-Rob breakout might be futile. We can feel good about the other trio here against Arizona, the match-up is excellent.
If more stuff happens, I will try to update this again, or just come through the discord we will talking NFL in there tonight and tomorrow!
Premium DFS Expert Lineups - Week 3
FanDuel Lineup
DraftKings Lineup
Please note that these are sample lineups we provide as a tool for you to use. They are designed to give you building-block options as you go about choosing your own lineups, but in no way can we guarantee success. Be sure to examine the latest injury updates, Las Vegas projected game totals, and late scratches before finalizing your lineups to ensure the players you are choosing are active on game day.
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